No you don't -- your guessing.
And frankly your know-all-attitude is rather annoying... whether you're right or wrong. No one "knows" what the relative marketcap of DRK to BTC should be today or will be in the future. You are no better than the DRK will be "$1000 by the end of the week" people.
ok, lets think this through (With my "know all attitude" which stems from having spent too much time in alt coin threads that were all going rival bitcoin at one time or another and balloon in price to kingdom come but then died and lost a lot of gullible investors a lot of money).
We'll look at 3 things: role of asset, market technicals and market fundamentals - at least as far as the scope of a single post allows.
[1] - Role of Asset. Why are most people in Darkcoin ?
They are in this asset, not as an investment but as a HEDGE for Bitcoin since most people have a majority invested in BTC and a minority in alts (It's reasonable to assume this since BTC is the reserve currency against which everything else is measured. If your DRK went down in price against Bitcoin you wouldn't be very happy even if the number of DRK's you held increased).
DRK is now being seen as one of the leading hedges for bitcoin investment. In particular, it hedges well against a possible perception of Bitcoin's blockchain being too transparent.
But the idea of a hedge is that it works opposite to your main investment. So if you picked a good hedge, it will go up if your main asset goes down for the reasons that you were hedging against, thereby offsetting the losses on the primary asset. Conversely, people shouldn't be surprised if the hedge goes down when the main asset rises.
In turn, Monero is a good hedge for Darkcoin because it uses an alternative technological approach, and so we are now seeing its value rise as well. A sensible investment strategy therefore might be a 70, 20, 10 split between BTC, DRK and MRO respectively (if you were a DRK fan) or a 70, 20, 10 in Monero's favour as the main hedge (If you were a MRO fan).
Note, that one of the things which makes it potentially NOT a hedge is if you can't control the transparency of money that you ** receive **. I'm not sure about this and need to do more research - maybe someone can clear it up. But most people are more worried about keeping their income private than their expenditure. If transactions are not opaque by default and you have to hope that your customers click "use Darksend" every time they send you a payment then Darkcoin is basically no better than Dark wallet. For me, to be effective as a hedge, the whole network needs to be dark.
[2] - Market Technicals
When we look at Bitcoin vs Darkcoin, they are at opposite ends of the price curve in their own particular markets. Bitcoin is at the bottom, Darkcoin is at the top. BTC has gone through a 5 month consolidation, during which it compressed down to less than half it's peak value. DRK on the other hand has inflated by about 1000% in the space of about 2-3 weeks. So from a purely technical perspective, it gives DRK a major challenge to further accrue value against Bitcoin. Not saying it won't do it - it may have some way to go yet, I'm just pointing this out in response to the claim that "I am guessing"
[3] - Market Fundamentals
What are the single biggest developments on the horizon for Bitcoin and Darkcoin respectively that may impact the market ?
For Darkcoin, it's obviously the arrival of the Masternode phase of the coin's technical evolution and more long term, the adoption of the Cryptonote technology (I don't now if that's official or just an off hand remark by the dev).
For Bitcoin I'd say that it's the prospect of the Winklevoss ETF receiving final approval and going live on the New York SE. I don't know if people actually realise what a huge deal that is - it will have taken the best part of 2 years to pass through the various approval stages. It will open the door to institutional funding and send Bitcoin on the next phase of its price evolution.
...
If you think that is "guessing" then please post your own "guess" and I'll gladly read it with interest. I'm afraid I can't apologise for the "know it all" attitude because I happen to have quite a lot of money in this coin and I'm sick of spending time in alt coin threads full of B.S. about what huge price the coin's going to have in a years time and nothing about why it might have that price other than "great dev, great community", followed promptly by a puff of white smoke and a stampede for the door.
Firstly, a couple of points to note.
Note, that one of the things which makes it potentially NOT a hedge is if you can't control the transparency of money that you ** receive **. I'm not sure about this and need to do more research - maybe someone can clear it up. But most people are more worried about keeping their income private than their expenditure. If transactions are not opaque by default and you have to hope that your customers click "use Darksend" every time they send you a payment then Darkcoin is basically no better than Dark wallet. For me, to be effective as a hedge, the whole network needs to be dark.
DarkSend will be enabled by default in the final release if it is not already in the release candidates (I am running the stable version for now). So this is a non-issue.
BTC has gone through a 5 month consolidation, during which it compressed down to less than half it's peak value.DRK on the other hand has inflated by about 1000% in the space of about 2-3 weeks.
On the other hand DRK's price was stagnant for months. This is not a MRO type pump where the coin has been on exchanges for a couple days and it has already done 5x or 6x. I see DRK's price growth as excitement over an ever closer DarkSend release and more public recognition via articles like the one in Wired today. That's the thing about technical(market) analysis in a market this illiquid. You get a nice article that no one knows about in advance other than the author and we are on the rise again. Way too much is unknown to do more than guess based on pass experiences from other coins which may or may not apply. If DRK was just another coin it would have been dumped in a few days like BlackCoin. Yet is has been nearly a month on the rise.
What are the single biggest developments on the horizon for Bitcoin and Darkcoin respectively that may impact the market ?
For Darkcoin, it's obviously the arrival of the Masternode phase of the coin's technical evolution and more long term, the adoption of the Cryptonote technology (I don't now if that's official or just an off hand remark by the dev).
The biggest release for DRK is a fully functioning,vetted Darksend V1 which has been open-sourced. Full stop. Masternodes are just the prelude and the price has already reacted strongly. Actually, much more so than I personally thought. I voted $3~$4 by the end of May in Coin101's poll. Also, Eduffield has taken the time to add his comment about ring signatures for Darksend V2 into the first post so I very much doubt it is a "off hand remark".
As for my "guess" on the price... dude I have no idea. Which was my point. There is too much unknown and too many things that could happen this year that would affect the price. How many people honestly saw the Chinese orchestrated pump from $300 to $1000 then predicted that it would be dumped because of the PBOC 's
official non-official regulations? Or Mt.Gox, people knew it would crash, but WHEN? -- did you know the date before it happened? And this is BTC which is on average much much more liquid than DRK.
All the analysis is great for something like the stock market with its high volume and predictable conservative company behavior. For bitcoin and even more so for altcoins you are fooling yourself if you think you "know". It is a guess -- no matter how educated.
If someone wants to guess $1000 by next week -- let them have their fun. If that is enough to kill a coin then let's all parrot that DRK is going to get dumped to $0.50 tomorrow to lower expectations... because when it doesn't the price will really go up, right?
