we'll reach minimum block reward sooner / the total number of coins will bottom out....
My only concern is that this behavior will result in the DRK network never having the momentus hashrate that makes other blockchains untouchable.
One 3TH/s ASIC would rape the whole network instantly. I'm not saying that X11 = SHA256 Double Round. But that ASICs are inevitable with anything that catches on enough to have value. We all hope it catches on simply because it's a good idea. But the value that comes with it will drive ASICs into X11. DGW3 certainly discourages it as the network hashrate is already reaching minimum with a few dozen GPU rigs... But it might be stifling it so much that the network will never have appreciable hash defense.
If say, guvthugs decided to build just one "X11 Neptune" of their own, DRK breaks. None of this "buying masternodes" crap arguments. They really could buy all the hashpower they need without touching a GPU or the markets simply by building one custom ASIC. Dev cost on that is a few million bucks in bureaucracy free-to-them taxed money.
This is why ASICs are actually a good thing for a coin. If you don't let your coin become an ASIC coin, then it takes one fat wallet to make one for themselves and your coin is borked. If your coin isn't using them, then it becomes a nuke they can drop on it.
My hope is that DGW3+X11=ASICs still happen, but the reward is low enough that the ASIC's price will have to be sensible enough that anyone can buy it, thus avoiding centralization. But, that doesn't seem to be what is happening. If a coin stays GPU/CPU mine-able, then a clandestine FPG or ASIC becomes a cheap (in the eyes of it's creator who has way deep pockets) saboteur. You MUST let your coin escalate into ASICs or it's doomed by anyone who can afford to make The Bomb.
Considering that summer is around, scrypt asics disastrous tape-out (nevertheless here), DRK price increasing, we will have TH network well before anyone actually sits down for an x11 blueprint. Then, by year end, LTC will be beat down like a dead horse, so all the Gridseends, A2 Innossilicon bla bla bla will just switch gears to profit... so x11.
Litecoin will drop massively, rendering all scrypt ASICs "profit-money-cow-obsolete".
Actually, someone did announce the world first x11 ASIC a few pages back...
Why would the DRK hashrate get any higher at this point? It's already bottoming-out the reward. Why would anyone mine it? I love DRK and I'm not mining it. I even gave my video card to my son so he could mine with it (he uses windows), and he's getting bunk out of it. It's not even worth the time of typing the command.
My point is that DGW3 may be too harsh. If your coin doesn't use ASICs, a single custom unit can be produced by deep money that hates you and your coin is dead.
If it already makes no sense to buy GPUs to mine DRK, no one will make an ASIC for profit. That leaves the door open for guv to make The Bomb and drop it on every X11 coin there is. Your network HAS to have ASICs on it, or it'll never have the hashrate to save itself from those who can make The Bomb.
I very much like the idea that mining stay in the hands of the common folk and well distributed. But that would have to come from a reasonably priced ASIC, not the avoidance of them. Being anti-ASIC makes a coin vulnerable in the long run. Essentially, it kills itself the moment it succeeds. The diff needs to allow for ASICs, but force them to be affordable. I really hope DRK/Evan has struck that chord, but it doesn't look like it...
I did some calculations, and unless I'm mistaken, assuming block reward goes down to 5 within the next days and diff stays there from now own, we won't even see the 11M coins, more like 10M coins ... (hopefully someone will review the calculations and confirm
Currently there are 4,268,791DRK, and the coin halves every 2 years, that means next halve will happen after 353,283 blocks, that will be after 613 days more or less, so by Jan-Feb 2016 we will have 6,035,206 DRK. After that, as follows:
Feb 2018 +1,766,415 = 7,801,621
Feb 2020 +1,051,200 = 8,852,821
Feb 2022 +525600 = 9,378,421
Feb 2024 +262800 = 9,641,221
Feb 2026 +131400 = 9,772,621
Feb 2028 +65700 = 9,838,321
Feb 2030 +32850 = 9,871,171
Feb 2032 +16425 = 9,887,596
...
So, unless I calculated it wrongly, it looks like the cap will be around 10M, even if block reward needs 1 or 2 months to end up at 5, we are in any case talking about less than 11M DRKs.
The coin does
not halve every 2 years. The block reward decreases 7% every year. There will be about 11 millions coins minted from the point we reach and stay at the 5 coin reward -- check the chart posted a few pages back. That was originally from Evan.