The way it is going we will see a stabilisation around 15/16 but no lower. The dumpers have gone for now but the power of the buyers is relatively weak. They are happy to sit in line and pay 16 or 15 rather than 17 right now. That is a sign of a downward trend unless a megapump comes in. Still plenty of money to be made however, buy at 15 or 16, be patient, sell at 17 or 18.
Think u may be right for the time being