It's quite possible that smart contracts on Bitcoin chain will solve some business issues while smart contracts on non-BTC chain will solve other issues. The future is not binary.
What I am saying is that Symbiont has more optionality than XCP. Symbiont could make money even if Counterparty turn out to be a failure.
The two investments have different optionality hence their relative valuation doesn't follow a simple linear relationship.
Yeah, but it would be a huge setback for Symbiont if Counterparty somehow failed. They just took on all three Counterparty founders and made them co-founders, which has a real cost of equity and money, and Symbiont (now including an ex NYSE CEO) is directly funding the development of Counterparty. Similarly, BitPay might not need Bitcoin to make money, but it would be a hell of a setback if Bitcoin turned out to be a failure.
For clarity: An ex CEO of the NYSE is funding Counterparty and its devs through his investment in Symbiont. That's ridiculously awesome.