Young padawan, you have much to learn. During wave C the market experiences more bad news than good news, and digests them poorly.
My guesstimate was based on the drop to 455$ in December 2013, adjusted by the amount of new fiat that entered the exchanges.
On Bitstamp, in the meantime, more fiat entered than on Gox, and the extra coins from Gox were absorbed, so it didn't drop as much yet.
Topic: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? (Read 4274 times)
February 10, 2014, 06:57:35 AM
February 10, 2014, 06:50:54 AM
My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.
You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong. What were your calls in September?
Let's see how my prediction of the 17th January turned out:
It took much longer than I expected, mostly because of the low volume.
In the meantime, on Gox those players cashing out via Bitcoins caused the fools' rally of January 25th, and then depressed the price on Bitstamp and BTC-E.
But now my prediction came reasonably close to reality, only Bitstamp looks now more bullish than I expected. But the drop to 102$ on BTC-E was epic!
I am not sure if this is the bottom of the first 1 / 3 of wave C, so I'm not trading, because just one whale dump could overrun my positions badly.
u do realize the drop was because fud? meaning that ur TA was pretty much useless and u were only lucky
February 10, 2014, 06:48:23 AM
My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.
You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong. What were your calls in September?
Let's see how my prediction of the 17th January turned out:
It took much longer than I expected, mostly because of the low volume.
In the meantime, on Gox those players cashing out via Bitcoins caused the fools' rally of January 25th, and then depressed the price on Bitstamp and BTC-E.
But now my prediction came reasonably close to reality, only Bitstamp looks now more bullish than I expected. But the drop to 102$ on BTC-E was epic!
I am not sure if this is the bottom of the first 1 / 3 of wave C, so I'm not trading, because just one whale dump could overrun my positions badly.
January 27, 2014, 02:25:25 PM
Bitcoin is going to pop soon!
If Chinese volume (+/- 7 billion) disappears, we will head back towards $80-$150 per bitcoin! SUCH CHEAP!
If Chinese volume (+/- 7 billion) disappears, we will head back towards $80-$150 per bitcoin! SUCH CHEAP!
No problem,at that price you will be lucky to snap any up ,too many buyers
the price will rocket straight back up to a reasonable price, best set your orders now if that's your thinking
doom on,doom off ,blink and you'll miss it
January 27, 2014, 12:38:01 PM
Bitcoin is going to pop soon!
If Chinese volume (+/- 7 billion) disappears, we will head back towards $80-$150 per bitcoin! SUCH CHEAP!
If Chinese volume (+/- 7 billion) disappears, we will head back towards $80-$150 per bitcoin! SUCH CHEAP!
January 27, 2014, 12:01:34 PM
I agree, there will probably not be any crash. It will be a slow grind downwards with many bull traps, and dead cat bounces. Kind of what we are seeing. These little rallies will be less profitable as we are seeing and will cause more people to stop participating in them.
When the prices start to get towards the low 700's and maybe breaking into the 600's, we may see a panic sell off.
I think what we are seeing now is the unsustainable price levels. What we probably have are a few wealthy speculators trading back and forth keeping the price higher than normal and also the reason for the recent rally to $1000. But these wealthy speculators will see less and less profits and might even start seeing losses. They may very well be cashing out slowly as they realize the demand is not there for prices higher than $1000.
The market already tried to rally a few times to go past $1000, but failed each time even with the really low volume.
Anyone not cashing out at least half of their bitcoins are taking on extreme risk. Better to cash out now and see where we are headed as the potential for bitcoins to go higher is very doubtful but the risks of it going much lower are very high right now. Simply put, the risk to reward by sitting on bitcoins is not in your favor. This basically means that the price is just too high right now.
I also do not see any major news event coming to save bitcoin. What I think is that the rise of bitcoin to these high price levels is the market pricing in far more growth than bitcoin will see. I don't see any better news coming out than has been out. Just a few days ago I read something on my cell phone about a venture capitalist seeing bitcoin at $100,000 a coin. Actually, every day I see some kind of news about bitcoin from the major media outlets. Even with all this news bitcoin still can't go over $1000.
When the prices start to get towards the low 700's and maybe breaking into the 600's, we may see a panic sell off.
I think what we are seeing now is the unsustainable price levels. What we probably have are a few wealthy speculators trading back and forth keeping the price higher than normal and also the reason for the recent rally to $1000. But these wealthy speculators will see less and less profits and might even start seeing losses. They may very well be cashing out slowly as they realize the demand is not there for prices higher than $1000.
The market already tried to rally a few times to go past $1000, but failed each time even with the really low volume.
Anyone not cashing out at least half of their bitcoins are taking on extreme risk. Better to cash out now and see where we are headed as the potential for bitcoins to go higher is very doubtful but the risks of it going much lower are very high right now. Simply put, the risk to reward by sitting on bitcoins is not in your favor. This basically means that the price is just too high right now.
I also do not see any major news event coming to save bitcoin. What I think is that the rise of bitcoin to these high price levels is the market pricing in far more growth than bitcoin will see. I don't see any better news coming out than has been out. Just a few days ago I read something on my cell phone about a venture capitalist seeing bitcoin at $100,000 a coin. Actually, every day I see some kind of news about bitcoin from the major media outlets. Even with all this news bitcoin still can't go over $1000.
Wow. Listen, I had the gun in my hand, the suicide note laid out, Britney Spear's latest CD playing full blast in case my nerve faltered at the last second, and I got an unexplained desire to live..... then I saw your post. You mean I'm NOT the only person in the world to actually realise why the market is not going in any direction? You mean there's someone on this forum that has actually figure this out? Wow. Just W-O-W!!!. I expected this forum to be full of angry posts on why bitcoin profiting is now essentially non-existent and how we were all going to find these wealthy SOBs.
Good job Eddie. You saved me from blowing my brains out from frustration.
I expect to see a lot more of these posts. And the location of the pub these wealthy assholes hang out on Fridays. We really need to do something about these SOBs!
(Good job, good job. Wow. Someone actually woke up. Wow. Just wow.)
January 19, 2014, 05:36:06 PM
pure idiots can't tell they are idiots....
That I will agree on easily, seeing as you try to use coinbase for daytrading. However, you said something about "demand side" earlier, which daytraders don't contribute anything to as they cancel out their contribution. Coinbase buyers, on the other hand, do contribute a lot, and they don't really care whether coins arrive today or a week later, because they are not going to sell for a 80$ "profit".
January 19, 2014, 04:43:33 PM
pure idiots can't tell they are idiots....
That I will agree on easily, seeing as you try to use coinbase for daytrading. However, you said something about "demand side" earlier, which daytraders don't contribute anything to as they cancel out their contribution. Coinbase buyers, on the other hand, do contribute a lot, and they don't really care whether coins arrive today or a week later, because they are not going to sell for a 80$ "profit".
January 19, 2014, 04:35:21 PM
coinbase crimping instant buys from 10btc to 1 per week is a pretty big curb on demand side... sure you can still do the 50/day delay by but that is pretty risky unless there is a big drop in price which proves that taking away 90% of instant buy reduces the support potential
you never used them right? when you buy 50btc you fix the price at that instant moment you bought, you just can't sell right away. but works just fine for investing.
pure idiots can't tell they are idiots.... I am speaking of protecting a floor price..not a mindless 'stacker' like you (btc cheap at any price, right?)
you buying at 820 with no hope of selling before a crash up to 5-7 days is hostage money for them. and on the reverse, if btc runs up to a 920 spike, you can't participate in those gains if it slides back down on the churn before you get your btc.
Why do you keep trying to just put your one way mentality into other points?
January 19, 2014, 04:26:41 PM
coinbase crimping instant buys from 10btc to 1 per week is a pretty big curb on demand side... sure you can still do the 50/day delay by but that is pretty risky unless there is a big drop in price which proves that taking away 90% of instant buy reduces the support potential
you never used them right? when you buy 50btc you fix the price at that instant moment you bought, you just can't sell right away. but works just fine for investing.
January 19, 2014, 04:24:53 PM
coinbase crimping instant buys from 10btc to 1 per week is a pretty big curb on demand side... sure you can still do the 50/day delay buy but that is pretty risky unless there is a big drop in price which proves that taking away 90% of instant buy reduces the support potential
they had to do this since USD from the states got blocked from btc-e and we all know about gox..
right now btc price can remain a hostage around 800 as long as the few power brokers want it that way. And they probably will keep it around here as long as their algos can make gains from the 780-830 churn
coinbase would love it to stay in this range so they can fleece with their 1% fees and wide spreads and having the price stay stable to promote more use of btc as a currency
they had to do this since USD from the states got blocked from btc-e and we all know about gox..
right now btc price can remain a hostage around 800 as long as the few power brokers want it that way. And they probably will keep it around here as long as their algos can make gains from the 780-830 churn
coinbase would love it to stay in this range so they can fleece with their 1% fees and wide spreads and having the price stay stable to promote more use of btc as a currency
January 19, 2014, 04:22:45 PM
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
So is gold....and everything else on this planet! When you buy one pizza, somebody just lost one pizza, so they are pizza losers dollar gainers. Continuing supply of pizzas is necessary to keep the pizza shop going. If people stop producing pizzas but continue eating pizzas that whole celebration will soon come to a halt, but I fail to see how is that an argument that a pizza shop is a bad business? *Every* market on earth promptly fails when supply goes to zero.
January 19, 2014, 04:13:39 PM
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
Yes, because the only thing Bitcoin is useful for is "profits". :/
January 19, 2014, 03:05:17 PM
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
So is gold.and salt, and rocks, and you name it ... but when you shift your view to the process it self ... you will know why people started to use one process instead another ...
bit off topic but as an analogy: in networking we already shift from point-to-point communication to distributed communication model. You don't do tcp over telephony anymore, you do telephony over tcp.
January 19, 2014, 02:59:01 PM
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
So is gold.lol its funny cuz nagle talks about losers
January 19, 2014, 02:58:12 PM
For a brief time, Bitcon was a legal way for people in China to get money out of yuan and into dollars or euros. China has rather severe restrictions on moving capital out of yuan. That made Bitcoin very useful in China. This drove a big run-up in Bitcoin prices.
That's over. There's a lot of denial about this on the forums, but the People's Bank of China has made their decision and is enforcing it. There's a lot of talk on the forums about "no one can stop Bitcoin" and such. They're missing the point. Bitcoin was, briefly, a safe, easy, and legal way to move capital out of China. The PBC has taken away "safe, legal, and easy". It's not totally impossible for someone in China to buy Bitcoins and sell them outside China for dollars. But there's now a chance of getting caught. So the advantage of Bitcoin over other illegal and semi-legal approaches (taking cash to Singapore or Hong Kong, for example) has been lost.
Bitcoin really ought to slide down to back where it was pre-China, but may not go down that far.
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
That's over. There's a lot of denial about this on the forums, but the People's Bank of China has made their decision and is enforcing it. There's a lot of talk on the forums about "no one can stop Bitcoin" and such. They're missing the point. Bitcoin was, briefly, a safe, easy, and legal way to move capital out of China. The PBC has taken away "safe, legal, and easy". It's not totally impossible for someone in China to buy Bitcoins and sell them outside China for dollars. But there's now a chance of getting caught. So the advantage of Bitcoin over other illegal and semi-legal approaches (taking cash to Singapore or Hong Kong, for example) has been lost.
Bitcoin really ought to slide down to back where it was pre-China, but may not go down that far.
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
Sorry to say, and I don't mean to sound derogatory about your opinion, but bear or bull it really doesn't seem to me like you have a good grasp of the situation. Granted it is not easy to get a complete picture because Bitcoin is unlike any type of asset, currency, payment system or whatever that exists today (in fact it is like a multi-faceted mix of elements from them + ?), but boiling everything down in the way you have done is too cynical and not accurate, even if you believe it is more realistic in comparison with the views of the optimist crowd... ahem
January 19, 2014, 02:56:31 PM
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
So is gold. January 19, 2014, 02:54:46 PM
It's normal to expect a 'fallout', bitcoins from Chinese exchanges sold on western exchanges, but only when a downtrend will be quite obvious.
Considering that the flow of fiat into western exchanges has slowed down, this could temporarily cause a large drop in price.
In such a case, it looks like Bitstamp is going to experience the largest drop, because it's the main cashing-out exchange.
Considering that the flow of fiat into western exchanges has slowed down, this could temporarily cause a large drop in price.
In such a case, it looks like Bitstamp is going to experience the largest drop, because it's the main cashing-out exchange.
January 19, 2014, 02:48:40 PM
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
Yes, because the only thing Bitcoin is useful for is "profits". :/
January 19, 2014, 02:40:47 PM
For a brief time, Bitcon was a legal way for people in China to get money out of yuan and into dollars or euros. China has rather severe restrictions on moving capital out of yuan. That made Bitcoin very useful in China. This drove a big run-up in Bitcoin prices.
That's over. There's a lot of denial about this on the forums, but the People's Bank of China has made their decision and is enforcing it. There's a lot of talk on the forums about "no one can stop Bitcoin" and such. They're missing the point. Bitcoin was, briefly, a safe, easy, and legal way to move capital out of China. The PBC has taken away "safe, legal, and easy". It's not totally impossible for someone in China to buy Bitcoins and sell them outside China for dollars. But there's now a chance of getting caught. So the advantage of Bitcoin over other illegal and semi-legal approaches (taking cash to Singapore or Hong Kong, for example) has been lost.
Bitcoin really ought to slide down to back where it was pre-China, but may not go down that far.
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
That's over. There's a lot of denial about this on the forums, but the People's Bank of China has made their decision and is enforcing it. There's a lot of talk on the forums about "no one can stop Bitcoin" and such. They're missing the point. Bitcoin was, briefly, a safe, easy, and legal way to move capital out of China. The PBC has taken away "safe, legal, and easy". It's not totally impossible for someone in China to buy Bitcoins and sell them outside China for dollars. But there's now a chance of getting caught. So the advantage of Bitcoin over other illegal and semi-legal approaches (taking cash to Singapore or Hong Kong, for example) has been lost.
Bitcoin really ought to slide down to back where it was pre-China, but may not go down that far.
It's worth remembering that Bitcoin is zero-sum. Profits made by any seller of Bitcoin are losses for someone else. A continuing supply of losers is necessary to keep this thing going. So far, recruitment of marks has been successful, but it's hard to keep that going indefinitely.
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