Topic: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? - page 3. (Read 4274 times)

Quote from: Edward50 on January 16, 2014, 09:10:46 PM

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here. Me included. That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads. I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance. If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground. The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading. When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them. We need less trolling and more education. But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

I don't know why you think I have an agenda. I clearly stated my reasons for it going lower, I have also clearly stated that I cashed out all my bitcoins. I even labeled the post "bears only" clearly showing that it will be people posting about it going down. NO agenda, I am showing you where I put my money. Now I am genuinely curious where this market is going and curious about what other bears think.

In my last "bears only" thread when I asked about how low it will go, us bears came tot he conclusion that it would bottom out around $600 with a short drop into the $500's. That was the most popular answer to how low we would go and that is actually where it went. Bears were right 100%, not the bulls stating high prices and growth.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3942651

This is why I like to only have a bear only discussion because I feel bears are somehow smarter about the market and much more reasonable in their estimates.

I really don't know why you think I have an agenda here, I really just seek knowledge and will use that knowledge to base my decision on if I should put my money back into bitcoins or continue sitting out.

Here

windjc

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Quote from: kireinaha on January 16, 2014, 07:44:29 PM

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

Exactly, but I don't think this can last for long. I think by people trying to save the market will find out that is too costly to do so. I think each upwards swing will be less and less as it would be too much easy money if we keep going down to $800 and up to $900. People are expecting that so it probably won't happen.

Either way, I think anyone is crazy to be sitting on bitcoins right now. The risk of it falling lower is much greater than it rising. I think smart money will sit this one out, at least that is what I have done. If you see a noticeable increase in demand then you can buy back in.

There is 4x as many btc bids than asks on Gox. If the market at ANY moment fears, and I say "fear" because alot of that money just wants cheaper bitcoins, a bullish movement the market could go up very very fast. All it needs is for sentiment to change to bullish and people will be fighting to get back in at the best price.

You may have your "mini" capitulation, but its a risk.

windjc

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Quote from: notme on January 16, 2014, 09:07:33 PM

Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:59:25 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on January 16, 2014, 07:44:29 PM

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here. Me included. That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads. I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance. If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground. The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading. When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them. We need less trolling and more education. But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

I've seen it cycle a few times now. Like I mentioned, bubbles pull in new users/traders until we saturate. Then we do the "shake out the newbies" dance, which we are either in the middle or end of. Sentiment (particularly on the forums) seems to me like the middle than the end, meaning final capitulation is yet to come. After capitulation, we will return to sanity/balance for a brief period. It is always brief because bitcoin is amazing and eventually a new rally will kick off.

Its as fair of an opinion as any. I think this rally really put owning large numbers of bitcoins out of the realm of possibility for a lot of people on here and that has also created a sentiment among many that they missed out.

Edward50

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Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

Exactly, but I don't think this can last for long. I think by people trying to save the market will find out that is too costly to do so. I think each upwards swing will be less and less as it would be too much easy money if we keep going down to $800 and up to $900. People are expecting that so it probably won't happen.

Either way, I think anyone is crazy to be sitting on bitcoins right now. The risk of it falling lower is much greater than it rising. I think smart money will sit this one out, at least that is what I have done. If you see a noticeable increase in demand then you can buy back in.

notme

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Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:59:25 PM

Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:25:20 PM

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here. Me included. That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads. I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance. If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground. The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading. When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them. We need less trolling and more education. But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

I've seen it cycle a few times now. Like I mentioned, bubbles pull in new users/traders until we saturate. Then we do the "shake out the newbies" dance, which we are either in the middle or end of. Sentiment (particularly on the forums) seems to me more like the middle than the end, meaning final capitulation is yet to come. After capitulation, we will return to sanity/balance for a brief period. It is always brief because bitcoin is amazing and eventually a new rally will kick off.

However, I haven't sold because I also acknowledge that at some point Bitcoin will outgrow our little echo chamber and at that point sentiment here won't mean much. Also, I'm fairly content with my BTC holdings since they exceed my student loan debt and are my largest form of investment/savings.

Edward50

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Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:19:17 PM

Quote from: MAbtc on January 16, 2014, 08:55:03 PM

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong? What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

Quote from: Tzupy

I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Here's another dated Sept. 15th:

Quote from: Tzupy

That would result in touching the 150$, I can't imagine how it would be possible.
IMO what happened today was a 'dead cat bounce', caused by minnows looking like whales, due to low volume.

Indeed it seems Tzupy is at the very least consistent. From Sept. 27th

Quote from: Tzupy

I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.

Sept. 28th:

Quote from: Tzupy

IMO we are in the last stage of wave 5 and in about a week we are going to see A.

Nov. 5th (I've left out about 40 other bearish posts):

Quote from: Tzupy

It can't be 1000$ and it can't be 1$, stop posting extreme views. This is going to a new ATH and then a massive crash.
The new ATH can't be 1000$, but could be over 300$, and the crash can't go down to 1$, but it could be below 100$.

I wasn't around herein 2013, but I would think that some unexpected things happened in 2013 that were unpredictable that may have flawed his analysis.

I have not done my research into this but supposedly the US Government more or less accepted bitcoins and did not ban it. I saw how the government shut down e-gold some years ago and I always thought bitcoin days are numbered if it got too big.

The other unexpected was the China government letting bitcoin get so popular there. I would never thought this would happen, and more or less it didn't happen for long.

These seem to be two big driving forces that really helped bitcoin in 2013. In 2011/2012 I would not have invested much money for fear the US government would shut it down.

Not that this is really on-topic but just saying that some bears analysis are flawed for some major events happening in 2013 that were largely unexpected.

windjc

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Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:39:21 PM

Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't.

I hadn't noticed. Are we talking about "bears" or "perma bears"? The latter are not worth mentioning.

The latter started this thread. So, I would say that they are worth mentioning.

windjc

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Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:39:21 PM

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here. Me included. That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads. I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance. If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground. The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading. When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them. We need less trolling and more education. But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

I agree with you. I would love it if the forum was more sincere and geniune. When I signed up months ago it was a lot more like that. Now its is a lot more about agendas. Like this thread. The OP was not geniune.

MAbtc

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Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't.

I hadn't noticed. Are we talking about "bears" or "perma bears"? The latter are not worth mentioning.

notme

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Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Ridicule doesn't open minds, although we are all guilty of it here. Me included. That's part of what makes this such an echo chamber, and why we have "bears only" threads. I agree that some bears are putting themselves in danger, but they just need some guidance. If you want to help, learn the techniques and show them the flaws in their analysis.

We're all going to have to step it up as our little community grows up if we want to have any hope of keeping this a currency and payment system for the people and not a wall street pump and dump playground. The barriers to trading are so low we have way too many people who don't know about trading. When the new trader levels get too high, we pop and then go through the dance of scaring out the majority of them. We need less trolling and more education. But that's a lot to ask from humans on the internet.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: notme on January 16, 2014, 08:33:23 PM

Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:25:20 PM

Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:19:17 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on January 16, 2014, 08:33:05 PM

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong? What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

Quote from: Tzupy

I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Tzupy isn't on trial here. Even if he was, hewas new then and I have seen his analysis mature a bit. Anyway, downward movement is possible from this point. We would like to discuss how far such a move might extend if you don't mind.

Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't. That is the example I was making of Tzupy.

My issue with bears is a mainly only THIS: many of them have a "value" that they think bitcoin is worth. And its arbitrary and its in their head. And they see the world through that "value". And unless bitcoin fails, it can only end badly for someone like that.

notme

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Quote from: notme on January 16, 2014, 08:18:57 PM

Quote from: kireinaha on January 16, 2014, 07:44:29 PM

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

How is somebody risking their money to support an investment "manipulation"? Or is it "manipulation" only because it goes against your opinion?

Yeah, you're right, I'm just trying to make it more entertaining by alluding to some kind of market conspiracy. But really, with such low volume and the Jan 31 deadline looming, it doesn't make sense to me why buyers keep jumping in to prop up the price almost immediately every time it dips.

Perhaps their available information, or their interpretation is different than yours. Most people strive to act rationally most of the time, especially with money. Follow your curiosity and you might just figure out why they are willing to put so much on the line.

notme

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Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:25:20 PM

Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:19:17 PM

Quote from: notme on January 16, 2014, 08:18:57 PM

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong? What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

Quote from: Tzupy

I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Tzupy isn't on trial here. Even if he was, hewas new then and I have seen his analysis mature a bit. Anyway, downward movement is possible from this point. We would like to discuss how far such a move might extend if you don't mind.

kireinaha

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Activity: 350

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Quote from: kireinaha on January 16, 2014, 07:44:29 PM

Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

How is somebody risking their money to support an investment "manipulation"? Or is it "manipulation" only because it goes against your opinion?

Yeah, you're right, I'm just trying to make it more entertaining by alluding to some kind of market conspiracy. But really, with such low volume and the Jan 31 deadline looming, it doesn't make sense to me why buyers keep jumping in to prop up the price almost immediately every time it dips.

windjc

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Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:19:17 PM

Quote from: windjc on January 16, 2014, 08:19:17 PM

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong? What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

Quote from: Tzupy

I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Here's another dated Sept. 15th:

Quote from: Tzupy

That would result in touching the 150$, I can't imagine how it would be possible.
IMO what happened today was a 'dead cat bounce', caused by minnows looking like whales, due to low volume.

Indeed it seems Tzupy is at the very least consistent. From Sept. 27th

Quote from: Tzupy

I disagree. Here is my prediction for the 3rd October: the start of a large drop in price, down to about 115$.

Sept. 28th:

Quote from: Tzupy

IMO we are in the last stage of wave 5 and in about a week we are going to see A.

Nov. 5th (I've left out about 40 other bearish posts):

Quote from: Tzupy

It can't be 1000$ and it can't be 1$, stop posting extreme views. This is going to a new ATH and then a massive crash.
The new ATH can't be 1000$, but could be over 300$, and the crash can't go down to 1$, but it could be below 100$.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong? What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

Wave C is indeed the primary bearish case to consider. I would love to see us make it that low, but if we do go down, I will start buying anything below 650ish.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070