Topic: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? - page 2. (Read 4274 times)

I'm seeing a similar short-term drop. Longer-term is always a different story.

Take some money off of the table, if it is profit. Profit will always be profit even if the market moves 10x, 20x, 100x against you. Just don't sell all.

I agree, there will probably not be any crash. It will be a slow grind downwards with many bull traps, and dead cat bounces. Kind of what we are seeing. These little rallies will be less profitable as we are seeing and will cause more people to stop participating in them.

When the prices start to get towards the low 700's and maybe breaking into the 600's, we may see a panic sell off.

I think what we are seeing now is the unsustainable price levels. What we probably have are a few wealthy speculators trading back and forth keeping the price higher than normal and also the reason for the recent rally to $1000. But these wealthy speculators will see less and less profits and might even start seeing losses. They may very well be cashing out slowly as they realize the demand is not there for prices higher than $1000.

The market already tried to rally a few times to go past $1000, but failed each time even with the really low volume.

Anyone not cashing out at least half of their bitcoins are taking on extreme risk. Better to cash out now and see where we are headed as the potential for bitcoins to go higher is very doubtful but the risks of it going much lower are very high right now. Simply put, the risk to reward by sitting on bitcoins is not in your favor. This basically means that the price is just too high right now.

I also do not see any major news event coming to save bitcoin. What I think is that the rise of bitcoin to these high price levels is the market pricing in far more growth than bitcoin will see. I don't see any better news coming out than has been out. Just a few days ago I read something on my cell phone about a venture capitalist seeing bitcoin at $100,000 a coin. Actually, every day I see some kind of news about bitcoin from the major media outlets. Even with all this news bitcoin still can't go over $1000.

I have absolutely no skin in the game at the moment after my $260 dollar burning fiasco in trying to short Bitcoin at $813 on Bitfinex's retarded exchange interface.....I ended up shorting right enough, but then also using margin to go long on two counts that I thought were Stop Loss and and Stop Trade (take profit at certain level) orders.

But with no skin in the game, I don't actually care which direction Bitcoin goes, but I do want to be on the right side of the trade, whatever the direction.

Right now, I am sitting out cos right now, Bitcoin is going to trend. A bit down, but overall probably more up than down, but not enough up to make it worth my while going long. Next noteworthy movement is going to be a move down, of that I am certain. Hopefully when the time comes, I will be able to actually make a short trade on Bitfinex without emptying the contents of my wallet into the aether on the back of their retarded jambled up trading interface, but if it transpires that I am wrong in my bearish stance, then hopefully I will change my outlook timely enough to take advantage of the move.

Nice try MatTheCat. I'm afraid it won't budge to where you want it to!

Oh sorry, have I just posted in a "bears only" discussion? Please excuse me!   

The first red circle was drawn around a phase right on the aftermath of a meteoric rise followed by the ultra bearish double top, and some pretty scary news coming out of China.

The second red circle is drawn around a phase occurring several weeks after a shocking crash, and a grinding recovery which ran out of steam just below a crucial support level, and is now grinding back down.

Two entirely different scenarios. I do think that Bitcoin is headed lower, I just don't think that we are going to wake up to an overnight 60% correction, at least not as things presently stand. Next stop is $680 - $720, followed by a bounce back up from there.

I think we will see the $500 range again, but don't sense anything about the charts or momentum to suggest that we are going to have a sudden plummet. A slow grind for the time being I reckon.

We have only seen the beginning of the end of the bulltrap. I´m seein 550$(Stamp) by Monday. Don´t try to catch fallin knifes when it is going to happen.

Sounds like an oxymoron. Let's wallow in our narrow groupthink, exclude balanced debate, and call it "serious discussion".

LOL   hahaha

It's more like putting the blinders on.

I get nervous when Stamp leads a plunge.  That tells me people are taking profits off the exchange.  Miners may be getting nervous and selling coins to cover expected utility costs over the next few months.  More adoption of Bitcoin is great, but this simply puts downward pressure on the price until people recharge.  I don't think people are recharging.  It's still a pain in the ass for regular folks to get Bitcoin.  Big barrier to entry.  Also, my hunch is the bulk of people transacting in Bitcoin at the moment have been around for > 6 months.  Buying new coins at these prices is mentally taxing.

The potential black swans you've mentioned are definitely casting a pall over the market.  China is unpredictable.  More attention is being given to the risks of mining centralization.

I am a bit puzzled that with all of the good news, the market still insists on sliding.  Also, the past two weekend pumps were bizarre.

Nailed it perfectly.
I'l add that Good news is now not having much effect on the price while bad news sends price down immediately.
And i'm not talking about possible Black Swan events like Closing /Bankruptcy of MtGox

BTC  4 digits RxIxP 01/2014

I am a 'newb' as far as investing capital in Bitcoin goes with the sole intention of turning a fiat profit from it and you are right. $800 Bitcoins are far too steep for my liking, having said that, I shall buy around $15K worth when they hit $790, and then sell the lot when it touches $810.

When Bitcoin trends into sub $400 territory, then I think we may be back in a range where some long term Bitcoins can be bought and held. Right when Bitcoin was up at around $1100 mark, some dude made a post in this forum showing some kind of exponential chart which proved that Bitcoin always returned to the 'mean' after its meteoric rises and crashes. Right now that 'mean' should be around $350, having said that, it can also be expected that Bitcoin under shoot this mean, so going by this theory, sub $350 coins would be a great deal in the long term, although with Bitcoin, I think it is a safe statement to make 'that with Bitcoin, anything can happen'. Just as Bitcoin can shock people with how high it can go, at some point, it is going to shock us all with how low it can go.

This is the speculation forum, you can expect lots of people in here who just want to make money and couldn't care less what bitcoin stands for or is hoping to achieve. If you want sincerity this part of the forum is probably the worst place to look for it. I just see this as a form of entertainment while I pick up some valuable lessons about trading here and there. If you go outside and visit real life bitcoin conferences and meet-ups you will see the attitude is generally much more positive and sincere. I kinda hate to be addicted to this place myself really, but I just have this thing for charts, numbers and yelling choochoo to the moon when the price goes up.

It seems someone doesn't understand the BEARS ONLY title, but since I was attacked, let's straighten the facts:

1) the capitulation (wave C bottom) of the previous bubble ended on the 5th July 2013, and the capitulation of this one is still to come.
Nothing wrong here, unless you count the bottom until the 7th July, when the new bubble started.
2) for September 2013, once the market hit 148$ on Gox on the 1st, 150$ was a ceiling that wasn't reached in that sub-wave.
3) the SR crash happened on the 2nd October, not the 3rd as I predicted, and the price went down to 110$ (85$ on Bitstamp), not 115$.
The bad SR news may have triggered it a bit early and stronger than 'normal'.

4) it wasn't corrective wave A, only corrective wave 2. Low volume before it made accurate timing difficult.
5) yes I was wrong, I couldn't believe that in 2013 there would be people willing to pay 1000$ for a bitcoin.

You could have done your homework better, I made some worse predictions than those.
But in the meantime I understood the distortions of the waves that made me misidentify the market's stages. And I had to think bigger.

This rally will be short lived and we should go down into the 700's from here, probably tomorrow it will happen.

The price had a little rally because some people think they can buy now and then make a quick buck selling at $900 like the last two mini rallies, I doubt it will happen again as nobody will buy their bitcoins at a higher price when they know the price will probably fall back down.

Anyone holding their bitcoins now are crazy not to sell them and sit with fiat right now. A rally is almost certain not to happen, and there is such a good chance of it going lower.

Except
 

Fibonacci Retracement

Its like magic

Good question. I don't use any of those sophisticated graphs and tools as if they worked then everybody would be rich. They probably have very little predictive power. If they worked you could just create a computer program to trade.

You just get a feel for the market and where it is headed, you take as much information as you can in and just make an educated guess. Kind of like intuition. You really do need to take into account as much information as possible to even being close to accurate. Sometimes I spend 5 to10 hours a day or more reading about bitcoins and watching the prices, listening to different people's opinions etc.

However, I always had a very good intelligence of taking in a lot of different information and being able to combine all that together and use it to make decisions. I noticed most other people seem to learn quicker but take in smaller amounts of information and are not able to use that information or combine it for any reasonable usefulness. Kind of like reading a book. I read a book much slower than other people but then I am able to make comparisons and use the information much better. Other people read much quicker but are not able to use what they learned. 

Why am I saying this, not everybody has the proper intelligence to make good market decisions, and you really can't use tools or graphs. The key to being even somewhat right is to take in as much information as possible from as many different sources as you can and hopefully have the proper intelligence to combine all this information together to help have predictive power. Very few people have this intelligence, but it may be more prominent on internet forums as it attracts more intelligent people. However, just because you write well doesn't mean jack.

Apparently you missed when he turned bull a little while back. It was short-lived, though.

My point was that neither perma bulls nor perma bears have "flexibility of mind." Bears do -- otherwise they wouldn't be bears. A perma bear is just a pig. Or a forum troll.

I would love to do a survey about new investors into bitcoins. I would think that they would say, geez, bitcoins were always around $10 for the longest time and then it went up to $1200 and was never able to recover after some big drops. I would think new investors would not want to pay this much for a bitcoin, they would simply think the boat was missed. Just a bit speculative bubble and it is over.

I have been saying for a long time that bitcoin at these prices is such a huge risk and not worth the reward, basically take your money and put it into something else. It would take such a large increase in market cap for the price of bitcoins to even go up 10%. Actually a 2% increase in price right now would double the market cap from what it was in 2012. People don't like to look at these things but they are real and add up.

Now for the guys who are sitting on bitcoins from when they are dirt cheap, then it is not a big deal to sit on them and speculate with them. But if you have to take your hard earned money and buy a bitcoin for $800 each... then it is a completely different story.

This is why I don't see bitcoin going higher any time soon. I also don't see new people coming into the market at any significant level. I would say the price rose from a few wealthy individuals and possibly china had some influence.