I believe BTC is grossly overvalued at the moment and a long term target is around $400 but the price will fall significantly below that before stabilizing there.
Nevertheless, I'm not at all sure that we've yet seen the peak of the bubble.
Topic: Are there any other Optimistic Bears? - page 2. (Read 4890 times)
The point of this thread is to debate the future price direction of bitcoin, not to devolve into personal attacks against me. For those who want debate im all ears, but i have now put several posters on ignore, thanks. And any more that want to post pointless personal attacks will be put on ignore too
Not sure if I'm on ignore -- don't believe I made a personal attack -- but I am genuinely interested in your answer to my previous question.
But hey, no worries if not.
If I remember correctly the all time high was at the end of November. 2 months later we are 30% below. This is by definition a bear market.
Yes, a medium-term bear/correction which might surprise many of the Bears by turning and stampeding straight to $2,000* or even $3,500 or higher.
Edit:
*Actually, markets rarely stampede straight to $2,000, instead there are many exciting "corrections" that do not last long enough to be called real corrections.
This is entirely possible. I am basing my bearish opinion on the strong correlation between bitcoin and stocks since its inception, and the fact that stocks appear to have (finally) turned. If the correlation fails, or if stocks have not begun a bear market, then i will be wrong on this call.
And yes, I thought the 266 peak in April was a major top and i didn't see the next bull since we didn't get oversold enough. That surprised me and it could definitely happen again.
The point of this thread is to debate the future price direction of bitcoin, not to devolve into personal attacks against me. For those who want debate im all ears, but i have now put several posters on ignore, thanks. And any more that want to post pointless personal attacks will be put on ignore too
Your wave count has been dead wrong.
You missed 90 pct of the up-move.
You missed 90 pct of the up-move.
I bought coins at 6 cents and again between $3 and $5. The explosion from 6 cents *drawfs* the move from $50. Those were the best buying opportunities: buy when there's blood on the street. I don't like to buy when everyone loves Bitcoin, and we didn't reach a negative enough sentiment during the decline that happened last April.
*Of course* a contrarian methodology is not perfect - obviously! You are not telling me any new information. And anyone who believes a perfect methodology exists obviously has no market experience. But contrarianism has worked well for me over the long haul, especially the killing I made during the 2008 crash when all my friends were losing their shirts, an event that we are likely to repeat soon. I may have been too early on stocks but given just how much more profitable stock market crashes are than equity bull markets, it won't matter. The magnitude of overbullishness and the length of time stocks have remained overbought should be commensurate with the size of the next bear market
I can't stand these hindsight biased comments, but I recognize the psychological tendency
Congrats. You're an early adopter. I hope you've never been going SHORT since you are calling the top!
I'm a late adopter. I bought at 29.-, and I'm very glad today that I did not listen to those wrong wave counts. Otherwise I would have sold at 50.- or 80.-, which would not be funny today.
Your wave count has been dead wrong.
You missed 90 pct of the up-move.
You missed 90 pct of the up-move.
I bought coins at 6 cents and again between $3 and $5. The explosion from 6 cents *drawfs* the move from $50. Those were the best buying opportunities: buy when there's blood on the street. I don't like to buy when everyone loves Bitcoin, and we didn't reach a negative enough sentiment during the decline that happened last April.
Can you make an honest assessment of whether buying and holding $100 of BTC @ 6 cents per coin would now be worth more or less than the gains you have made trading the BTC market?
If I remember correctly the all time high was at the end of November. 2 months later we are 30% below. This is by definition a bear market.
Yes, a medium-term bear/correction which might surprise many of the Bears by turning and stampeding straight to $2,000* or even $3,500 or higher.
Edit:
*Actually, markets rarely stampede straight to $2,000, instead there are many exciting "corrections" that do not last long enough to be called real corrections.
...The magnitude of overbullishness and the length of time stocks have remained overbought....
Do you make any adjustments for the falling Dollar when calling stocks "too high?"
As the Dollar falls the "real value of stocks" (assuming they have any real value) is no longer "as high", only the numbers are inflated (i.e 2008 Dow 14,500 does not equal 2014 Dow 14,500)
When stocks are "overbought" (along with a much lower Dollar) the targeted low might be 11,000 (for example) instead of 6,500 or 7,000, or do you predict a real crash, like Dow = 1,500 by 2015?
Your wave count has been dead wrong.
You missed 90 pct of the up-move.
You missed 90 pct of the up-move.
I bought coins at 6 cents and again between $3 and $5. The explosion from 6 cents *drawfs* the move from $50. Those were the best buying opportunities: buy when there's blood on the street. I don't like to buy when everyone loves Bitcoin, and we didn't reach a negative enough sentiment during the decline that happened last April.
*Of course* a contrarian methodology is not perfect - obviously! You are not telling me any new information. And anyone who believes a perfect methodology exists obviously has no market experience. But contrarianism has worked well for me over the long haul, especially the killing I made during the 2008 crash when all my friends were losing their shirts, an event that we are likely to repeat soon. I may have been too early on stocks but given just how much more profitable stock market crashes are than equity bull markets, it won't matter. The magnitude of overbullishness and the length of time stocks have remained overbought should be commensurate with the size of the next bear market
I can't stand these hindsight biased comments, but I recognize the psychological tendency
Please consider this about what you are calling short-sighted and stupid:
I think people who look at past bubbles/crashes and say we need to have another drop simply based on previous patterns are extremely short sided and, frankly, pretty stupid.
- "Patterns" are a reflection of human emotion, and previous history is ignored by the "short-sighted and stupid."
- Fun Tip: When the patterns do not produce the result you expect (or the "obvious" wave count was wrong), you tend to get some of the largest moves.
- In other words, when the "smartest" traders are caught by surprise, then you tend to get the strongest showing of Greed and/or Fear....I hope we see those times again soon.
Prior to the 2nd big run-up (~$200/$250 all the way to ~$1,200), I was convinced BTC would "obviously" fall back under $50, maybe much lower.
Now I would be happy with anything except this endless quiet time.
A runaway Bull market doesn't stop at $1200 when greed (and a falling Dollar) can easily take it much higher.
Now I would be happy with anything except this endless quiet time.
...
A true correction doesn't last just a couple of days
touchéA true correction doesn't last just a couple of days
A runaway Bull market doesn't stop at $1200 when greed (and a falling Dollar) can easily take it much higher.
I think people who look at past bubbles/crashes and say we need to have another drop simply based on previous patterns are extremely short sided and, frankly, pretty stupid.
...We've had no significant corrections since 2011 - it's overdue
There was at least one correction of over 50% to 60++% since the all time high (i.e Gox went from ~$1200 all the way down into the $400's, and there was at least 2 other large drops)
A true correction doesn't last just a couple of days
Exactly
I am 100% an optimistic bear.
Not just because "I want cheap coins" (I do want cheap coins of course) but I am an optimistic bear mainly because of the Elliot wave theory, as it suggests that we should go down one more leg If my count it correct.
Not just because "I want cheap coins" (I do want cheap coins of course) but I am an optimistic bear mainly because of the Elliot wave theory, as it suggests that we should go down one more leg If my count it correct.
Right. The long-term count since the inception of the currency shows a completed impulse. That's a big deal.
Your wave count has been dead wrong.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1730809
You missed 90 pct of the up-move.
...We've had no significant corrections since 2011 - it's overdue
There was at least one correction of over 50% to 60++% since the all time high (i.e Gox went from ~$1200 all the way down into the $400's, and there was at least 2 other large drops)
I was much more Bearish when BTC was going up every day.
Let's look at where we are really at:
Long-term trend: Clearly Up
Medium-term trend: Down/Correcting from the all-time-high
Short-term trend: Up from ~$730 (on btc-e)
Let's look at where we are really at:
Long-term trend: Clearly Up
Medium-term trend: Down/Correcting from the all-time-high
Short-term trend: Up from ~$730 (on btc-e)
- If we get a decent up move soon all 3 trends will be up, then I think ~$1,500 to almost $2,000 is likely before a large drop.
I am 100% an optimistic bear.
Not just because "I want cheap coins" (I do want cheap coins of course) but I am an optimistic bear mainly because of the Elliot wave theory, as it suggests that we should go down one more leg If my count it correct.
Not just because "I want cheap coins" (I do want cheap coins of course) but I am an optimistic bear mainly because of the Elliot wave theory, as it suggests that we should go down one more leg If my count it correct.
Right. The long-term count since the inception of the currency shows a completed impulse. That's a big deal.
So what is your definition of "doom and gloom?" Am I supposed to be arguing with fonzie now? What do I have to gain from that?
Feel free to ask me anything.
I am an optimistic bear. In the way that I want the price to fall a little so I can buy more cheap coins, so I am a selfish bear-bull.
I think all of us are bulls here otherwise why would we spend so much time on this forum right ?
And in no way will the price remain at $800 while the user base grows. Hell there aren't even enough decent exchanges to supply the potential buyers. Right now it is a pain in the ass to buy even a single bitcoin.
I think all of us are bulls here otherwise why would we spend so much time on this forum right ?
And in no way will the price remain at $800 while the user base grows. Hell there aren't even enough decent exchanges to supply the potential buyers. Right now it is a pain in the ass to buy even a single bitcoin.
But you are not one of those in category 3. You are not only 'at present' bearish. You've been bearish all the time while the price climbed up 1'000 Dollars.
Yeah, I'm not sure that you can quite call yourself an 'optimistic bear' if your next entry point is in three years time. Sounds a touch pessimistic to me
Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.
Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.
All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.
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