Topic: Are there any other Optimistic Bears? - page 4. (Read 4821 times)

The arrogance of billyjoeallen really puts all other perma bulls to shame.

and how many of us assholes are going to want to jump into Bitcoin if it were to crash through support after support? Back in early December I would have bitten someone's hands of had they offered me $800 BTC. But now that I can buy as many $800 as I liked, I am not interested.

Bitcoins are vapour and their value is only what people imagine it to be, and perhaps the mechanisms that define our imagination of Bitcoin's value have been wildly overstretched. In fact, I fkn know for sure that they have. The question is to what extent can those 'whales' whose interests it is to enforce a period of stability in Bitcoin in its presently wildly overstretched state, succeed in the face of the organic and perhaps some not so organic forces that want to push Bitcoin back down?

I would categorize myself as a realistic bull.  The December decline was About 63%, which can be considered a pretty strong decline.  Declines like the 94% move in 2011 are rare, especially only a few years apart, but I will concede that bitcoin moves fast.  Also, the major declines have been less drastic and shorter in terms of time between each top:  94% in 2011, 80% in April 2013, and 63% in December 2013.  It seems to me that the bull may experience a blowoff top sometime this year followed by a sizeable decline, possibly rivaling that of 2011, but maybe ending at levels near or higher than now.

All said, I have lightened up my longer term position.  We shall see what the market decides.

Also, some of the new cryptoassets such as bitshares, ethereum, open transactions, ect which attempt to bring further evolution to the decentralized financial landscape are interesting and worth a look.

Just my 2 satoshis.

um, no we haven't. Check the wall observer thread and you will discover I was talking about that just yesterday. This is not 2011. We have a massive infrastructure no that we didn't have then. And It was a huge over correction. Don't think people like me are just going to hodl this time. Fuck no, we're buying more, and at higher prices than the one's you are waiting for. Do you have any idea how many of you assholes are waiting around for cheap coins? Too many to let it happen. Hell, I'm gonna start buying at $780 and front run your asses, me and a few whale friends. You're dreaming if you think it's ever go below $400, even with disasters like a pan EU ban or Mt Gox going under.

There are literally BILLIONS on the sidelines. Sooner or later, a critical mass of people are gonna get sick of this sideways movement and say "fuck it, I'm buying now." Happened twice already.

Not only completely forgotten, but there are many here who only know a rising Bitcoin price. They feel invincible and completely believe that Bitcoin can't have a bear market.

I am a category 3 before I am a category 1 or 2.

Bitcoin's valuation has gotten way ahead of schedule and now the fight is on to keep the price relatively stabilised in relation to the organic market forces pressing down on it. This means that I think Bitcoin should go down quite a lot, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it will. Yes Bitcoin is overinflated, yes it should correct a lot yet but regardless of what happens, crypto currencies are here to stay. It may not be Bitcoin that emerges as King a decade or so down the line just as nobody had heard of Google or Facebook as the internet first exploded onto the mainstream, but I would suspect that Bitcoin has quite a long road in front of it yet, which means it's valuation has plenty time to grow and expand. The two major anti-US nations have taken an anti-Bitcoin stance, but most crucially, the US itself seems to be accepting it for now and is now moving to regulate it's use and bring it into the fold of establishment finance. For this reason, I am not 'optimistic' about Bitcoin. Yes, I think it has huge potential for yet more future speculative gains but I don't see how it is going to contribute to human freedom or prosperity in anyway whatsoever. Infact, quite the opposite. Bitcoin seems to me like a prototype for the 'Great Beast's' global digital currency. Every single transaction, on the ledger forever, and despite what many like to think, 100% trackable, forever. There is also an exponentially growing blockchain which will soon be unfeasible for home computer users to manage which will result in corporations springing up as Bitcoin intermediaries, serving as Bitcoin 'banks' and even central banks.

Bitcoin is not freedom. It is anti-freedom that has been welcomed in through the back door by a largely 'libertarian' leaning geek fraternity. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Satoshi Nakamoto was simply a code name for a team of NSA elite coders who have created the thing to begin with. Considering the undeveloped (hidden) global tracking potential that Bitcoin provides for, Bitcoin would be a genial initiative of an intelligence agency representing a political entity who is fast moving to have complete hegemony of control over global information traffic. Especially if that technology were 'marketed' most to subversive groups or those heavily involved in black market activity who aren't paying their dues to the 'Evil Empire'.

If I I could hit a Bitcoin kill switch, I would press down hard on that motherfucker, just as soon as I had moved my funds out of Bitstamp of course. Since I don't have access to such a switch, if Bitcoin is going to happen it is going to happen and if I can make a tidy profit on it then I want to make a tidy profit on it.

Cool thanks yeah this is similar to my thinking. We've had no significant corrections since 2011 - it's overdue

People have completely forgotten how large that decline was, over 90%

I'm one of those that would fall into number 3
It's time for a real correction. There has only been sideways corrections since 2011 and the levels passed since breaking above $32 need to be revisited for confirmation.
Now, I'm not saying that we need to go down to $32, but there is a huge gap between well tested prices and current prices

So basically you think You are two orders of magnitude smarter than the market, right? Do you have anything to base this on other than the same information that we all have access to?

I think most perma bulls fall under this category.
I think it could easily correct to 400. maybe lower. I also believe that it doesn't have to.
I am a hodling bull.

It seems that broad public opinions on Bitcoin are *primarily* divided into two categories:

(1) PERMA-BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls (most of this forum)

(2) PERMA-BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears (Paul Krugman, Peter Schiff, etc.)

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.