Topic: Are we starting a bull run? (Read 6221 times)
I think the price will be substantially higher by the end of the year. There has been a lot of talk of big wall street money flowing in and I do think that will happen starting in September at the latest.
There has been a lot of time out with a lot of infrastructure, marketing, education going on. I think that's all good but I feel that it is coming to an end now. I also think a log of people have been clinging on to MT Gox in the hope of getting coins back. Once that's put behind us then we can move on from that and concentrate on what comes next.
I do agree with those that said people are waiting to enter the market. Bad news attract attention, people gets curious and enter the market. Even if one out of 100 get past the bad news, the market effect will be huge.
Today's movement suggests that we are, not sure if there is something in the works behind the scenes or if everyone has finally agreed that price has definitely bottomed out and now is a good time to jump aboard. Either way...hold on for the ride!
I think it's turning around. I see a strong correlation between Google Trends and the USD price. Check out
http://cryptocoinstats.com/interesttracker.php
for more. I checked Google Trends today and it looks like Bitcoin searches for May will be higher in April. I think that's a good sign that things will be turning around.
http://cryptocoinstats.com/interesttracker.php
for more. I checked Google Trends today and it looks like Bitcoin searches for May will be higher in April. I think that's a good sign that things will be turning around.
^^^^^^
that is some cool data 
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.
You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help.
You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial.
At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months?
say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders.
Hahahahahahahaha.
What were you saying?
PS I really love the fact that you already went and edited the bolded sentence out of your post. Too bad others quoted you.
Well he is winning at getting his EW analysis wrong as many consecutive times as possible.
As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.
well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.
You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help.
You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial.
At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months?
say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders.
Hahahahahahahaha.
What were you saying?
PS I really love the fact that you already went and edited the bolded sentence out of your post. Too bad others quoted you.
This is where I point out that crypt does not really do TA tooo well ..
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
That is the sort of thing that I liked to think back when I was too lazy to learn about TA. Since I have learned a bit about TA, I don't think that any more.
Zoom out to the bigger picture and Bitcoin does TA fantastically well and there are plenty good analysts out there who are calling Bitcoin every bit as good as they call Forex, the Dow, Gold, etc.
IMO bitcoin has been easier to trade with TA than any other market. The major uptrends have been solid, staying within channels with very little retesting and emcompassing an order of magnitude or more. The initial crashes have typically been solid with typical dead cats. Of course this will not continue and may have already ended but I'm betting we will see at least one more solid, shorter term pattern encompassing an order of magnitude or more.
This is where I point out that crypt does not really do TA tooo well ..
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
That is the sort of thing that I liked to think back when I was too lazy to learn about TA. Since I have learned a bit about TA, I don't think that any more.
Zoom out to the bigger picture and Bitcoin does TA fantastically well and there are plenty good analysts out there who are calling Bitcoin every bit as good as they call Forex, the Dow, Gold, etc.
...lolz so much anger ..things not tracking to plan eh
oh well ..you reap what you sow
oh well ..you reap what you sow
m8. I have no position in Bitcoin at the moment. I have banned myself from shorting or using leverage, otherwise I would have shorted at $520, which was my last 'official' call.....yeah, it went up as high as $548...would my nerve have held out after my last 'market chasing' short trade? Possibly not (which is why I have banned myself from touching leverage/shorting).
Thus, I have restricted myself to only trading long with 'physical' Bitcoin. So I am waiting on a long opportunity to present itself. Recent Bitcoin dreams I had pointed to longer periods and greater amounts of upside than downside. I have short/medium term bullish tingles in my groin, but I am being precautious. This is a vicious market and false sucker break-outs are par for the course. Practically before every brutal correction, there has been a low volume break-out of some description that would lure the overly bullish into a very bad investment. I have just had the most horrible trade of my life, if waiting for $30 worth of market action b4 taking a long lowers my risk of repeating such a horrible trade, then that is what I am going to do. Will let some other suckers jump in and take the first $20-$30 of the upside.
For me to go long, I am waiting on lesser log wave 4 trendline being breached. That presently means prices of around $475. Failing that, I would suggest that I have seen such a low volume trickle over a linear trendline many times b4 with Bitcoin which has very often been followed by a brutal correction. For example, I find it quite concerning how the price has been rising from $420 yet the volume decreasing over the past few days. May just be a blip. But if the textbook is applied, that is a very bearish signal.
This is where I point out that crypt does not really do TA tooo well ..
We may hang out in this channel for the next 4-5 weeks but it wont break the 415 support point ...sub 300 would have happened about 2 weeks ago IMHO
It may be a very long and slow steady climb...china FUD effect is finished
...lolz so much anger ..things not tracking to plan eh
oh well ..you reap what you sow
oh well ..you reap what you sow
m8. I have no position in Bitcoin at the moment. I have banned myself from shorting or using leverage, otherwise I would have shorted at $520, which was my last 'official' call.....yeah, it went up as high as $548...would my nerve have held out after my last 'market chasing' short trade? Possibly not (which is why I have banned myself from touching leverage/shorting).
Thus, I have restricted myself to only trading long with 'physical' Bitcoin. So I am waiting on a long opportunity to present itself. Recent Bitcoin dreams I had pointed to longer periods and greater amounts of upside than downside. I have short/medium term bullish tingles in my groin, but I am being precautious. This is a vicious market and false sucker break-outs are par for the course. Practically before every brutal correction, there has been a low volume break-out of some description that would lure the overly bullish into a very bad investment. I have just had the most horrible trade of my life, if waiting for $30 worth of market action b4 taking a long lowers my risk of repeating such a horrible trade, then that is what I am going to do. Will let some other suckers jump in and take the first $20-$30 of the upside.
For me to go long, I am waiting on lesser log wave 4 trendline being breached. That presently means prices of around $475. Failing that, I would suggest that I have seen such a low volume trickle over a linear trendline many times b4 with Bitcoin which has very often been followed by a brutal correction. For example, I find it quite concerning how the price has been rising from $420 yet the volume decreasing over the past few days. May just be a blip. But if the textbook is applied, that is a very bearish signal.
You are in so much denial ...its a joke
Can only see your own imposed view point
I suspect you have absolutely no fkn clue what I am even referring to. I am referring not to my own TA, but DanV's. DanV is the nasty Indian chap who, when Bitcoin was rebounding from first China ban crash and absolutely everyone was bullish (including myself), said that according to his EW analysis, the $450 low (he was using Gox as his chart) would be retested. That was on 5th Jan, with Bitcoin charging up past $1000 on Gox. To balance the scales, he was also expecting Bitcoin to go higher than it did but did state that the potential highs on that move were limited.
DanV has established two long term trendlines on his log scale Bitcoin graph. One runs from $995, $710, $548, and is currently sitting around $470. The other, the one which would need to be breached in order for DanV's wave 4 trendline to be confirmed as completed, runs from $1160, $995, and is currently hovering around $590. Now, should Bitcoin get up to, breach and show signs of holding above the trendline at $470, then I shall definitely be looking at a long trade as even if I doubt that the wave 4 has yet completed, there is still a lot of upside between the lower and upper trendlines.
So what the fk is this about my own imposed viewpoint? And if I can only see someone else's imposed viewpoint, who am I going to listen to.
DanV, with a track record of calling future market action to an impeccable standard.....
....or......
'Yip Yip' the forum Bitcoin Kool-Aid merchant?
...lolz so much anger ..things not tracking to plan eh
oh well ..you reap what you sow
You are in so much denial ...its a joke
Can only see your own imposed view point
I suspect you have absolutely no fkn clue what I am even referring to. I am referring not to my own TA, but DanV's. DanV is the nasty Indian chap who, when Bitcoin was rebounding from first China ban crash and absolutely everyone was bullish (including myself), said that according to his EW analysis, the $450 low (he was using Gox as his chart) would be retested. That was on 5th Jan, with Bitcoin charging up past $1000 on Gox. To balance the scales, he was also expecting Bitcoin to go higher than it did but did state that the potential highs on that move were limited.
DanV has established two long term trendlines on his log scale Bitcoin graph. One runs from $995, $710, $548, and is currently sitting around $470. The other, the one which would need to be breached in order for DanV's wave 4 trendline to be confirmed as completed, runs from $1160, $995, and is currently hovering around $590. Now, should Bitcoin get up to, breach and show signs of holding above the trendline at $470, then I shall definitely be looking at a long trade as even if I doubt that the wave 4 has yet completed, there is still a lot of upside between the lower and upper trendlines.
So what the fk is this about my own imposed viewpoint? And if I can only see someone else's imposed viewpoint, who am I going to listen to.
DanV, with a track record of calling future market action to an impeccable standard.....
....or......
'Yip Yip' the forum Bitcoin Kool-Aid merchant?
we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.
No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect.
I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been.
You are in so much denial ...its a joke
Can only see your own imposed view point
we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.
No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect.
I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been.
thats entirely speculation. many would argue we havent even reversed down.
when you were saying sell, you had no better reason for it than the price was too high and you didnt like it. At that point we were at a juncture, after completing an ABC, C being impulsive, and we were going up, rather impulsively. I told you that i could see further down side was possible but I held until I could see that for sure, and then I made great deal shorting from cerca 750. Mind you I called the mt gox bottom and the 339 bottom.
I think Bitpay's tweet today is going to help launch this bull run nicely. 
https://twitter.com/BitPay/status/465206481474686976
https://twitter.com/BitPay/status/465206481474686976
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.
We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.
I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.
As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.
But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
No currently we are far below the long term trend line. It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not. Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.
FTR, that isn't a trend line. That is just an exponential moving average.
No that's linear regression calculated for each day.
Please read about TA online.
And i was mentionning the resistance trendlineS.
that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.
This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.
We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.
I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.
As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.
But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.
No currently we are far below the long term trend line. It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not. Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.
interesting, all the scamcoins, including dogecoin and EVEN litecoin rapidly go down, both in expected and actual value.
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