Topic: Are we starting a bull run? - page 2. (Read 6223 times)

No that's linear regression calculated for each day.

FTR, that isn't a trend line. That is just an exponential moving average. 3 month 90 day if I had to guess the params.

I don t know if i should answer that? Is that kind of a joke?

No currently we are far below the long term trend line.  It doesn't matter if you are calculating it in log or not.  Check out http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php to see the trend line for yourself.

No matter how you want to frame it, there is no confirmed reversal until the 1150 - $995, and currently at around $595 trendline is broken. Sure, if Bitcoin gets up to around $480 and turns the nearest resistance line up there into a support, then a long punt makes sense, albeit with keeping a close eye on how the market responds to the main trendline above it. Should it even get there before taking a leg down. Who is to say that $340 won't simply turn out to be a leg A of a primary 3-swing move to constitute a wave 4? As DanV points out, there is no confirmation that the Wave 4 is over until that upper trendline is taken out. Bitcoin could rise $100 (a fantastic long trade in anyones books) and still not take out the upper trendline. If this transpires to be the case, then we have a good way to go in this bear market yet. After all, If DanV's wave 3 took 18 months to play out, then 9 months or even 12 months for the Wave 4 to play out wouldn't be unreasonable to expect.

I am not an expert in EW. Have only discovered it via DanV in the last week tbh. I do however have a good memory and remember arguing with you over whether Bitcoin was going down (my position) or up (your position) back when Bitcoin was in $800 territory. Not that I knew who DanV was back then, but having viewed some of his old YouTube videos, I can confirm that DanV was saying the market was going down when you were saying it was going up. DanV has been pretty bang on the money since he started putting out Bitcoin EW analysis. Like I said before, this suggests to me that he is framing his wave counts correctly, whilst up until now, you haven't been.

we are not dealing with a primary here, we are dealing with an ABC. connect the top of wave V with wave B and it will be meaningless every time.

From an EW analysts point of view, a trendline only needs to have two points of coincidence providing those two points are the start of Wave 1, and the retracement of Wave 2 in order to remain valid for the cycle. The EW cycle is considered finished only when the trendline is breached. As for the argument of log scale v linear scale, being a noob myself, I don't really know for sure which applies best, but it seems that any serious analyst uses log scale for measuring long time periods and/or massive changes in value. After all, Bitcoin going up from $5 to $10 means the same to someone invested in it as Bitcoin going from $500-$1000. Also, draw the line of your lesser wedge on the log scale starting from $995, and you will find that the post crash bounces to $710, and to $548, have played this lesser EW cycle trendline like a dream. Seems that the log scale trendline is hitting the exuberant excesses of the market bang on the head, whereas the linear scale just isn't. Afterall, we have already had a couple of break outs on two fairly 'significant' linear scale trendlines yet 'nothing happens'. I would suggest that one should indeed be using log scale when analysing the bigger picture in Bitcoin.


Whenever do the infamous dates actually coincide with significant market action?

or catwalk bitcoin has all the time in the world. it will suffer from erectile dysfunction until the last bear has been trapped. our bear population is quite resilient, though.

Its funny. Visually, when I looked at the chart I originally thought there was a much stronger impulse up on Houbi from this most recent low at 2559 than there was from the one before it at 2555. So I assumed this one would go higher and potentially break 2867.5.

But then I counted the bars and realized that in fact this movement up has taken longer and seems to have slightly less momentum forward. So, now I am not so sure that this move up is going to breach 2867.5 or even 2859.6 - the most recent high.

It will be interesting to see.  The 10th is tomorrow. Either we break higher towards 3000 or this thing starts to reverse down again.

This is what is going on. We are above the normal trendline and have retested 2 times, and we are heading to the logscale trendline. If we are to break trough it, it definitely is bull even if we are going down again to retest it.

We have also made a new low higher than the precedent, which is a sign of a reversal.

I will not advise to use lagging indicators as you will always be late for actions. And i m not using EW, because EW is like economists, every experts have a different opinions. It sure have some good ideas, but as everyone has a different opinion on the wave counts, it is very difficult to rally bulls or bears.

As Tera posted earlier, not sure on this thread tho, there is marging call going on. "All margin positions need to close by 10th May at OKCoin and Huobi".
My opinion is that we wont break the logscale trendline yet, because of a fibo line acting as resistance as well.

But we are definitely in a bull walk. Just warming up.

It's more like a bull walk.

greed has set in.... everyone wants cheap coins.

Desperation hasn't even settled in...

sure, we are starting a bull run.. it wont go any back to 400

LOL! 

I could fill your sell orders up 100 times. Not sure why you seem so proud of that.

What bet are you talking about? The one with you that you didn't take that I would have won or the one with Rptelia that he didnt take that I would have won? It gets confusing.

I think it's turning around.  I see a strong correlation between Google Trends and the USD price.  Check out

http://cryptocoinstats.com/interesttracker.php

for more.  I checked Google Trends today and it looks like Bitcoin searches for May will be higher in April.  I think that's a good sign that things will be turning around.

say hows that bet going ay ol buddy windjc? seems like you have missed out by a few yuan. must have been a critical juncture ay? did you take my advice to buy at 430? lol. I know how much money you've lost being contrary so you say. Im a winner and I cant wait for you to fill my sell orders.

You've had so many fucking counts invalidated, if they were steps we could all walk up and touch the moon ourselves, without bitcoin's help.

You talk a good talk, but you are biased towards being a bull - you only see bullish things. You are not impartial.

At any rate, if you are wrong about this, will you stop posting your charts on this forum for a while - say 6 months?