Topic: Are we starting a bull run? - page 3. (Read 6223 times)

well thats just plain false. I doubt there are any other EW analysts that you know of. My count is yet to be validated, so you cannot say so much about mine.

that 'trend line' dating to december the 4th has only two point of coincidence. technically, thats not a coincidence. there is no trend line there at all. there is only the one 'wedge' trendline holding it down, and thats only on the log scale, we have broken out of that wedge on the normal scale. its up or down.

That isn't quite what I was saying but not to bother.

I have seen his charts, and the extensive videos he has posted on YouTube, and know his position.

You speak of a wedge.

Here is a screenshot I posted in another thread. Highlighted in Blue are the two long term trendlines that are coming into play. Left in the vanilla white of Bitcoinwisdom, is the upper resistance trendline of your wedge:







So the situation is as follows.

If Bitcoin rises $30, it takes out a resistance trend that has been with us since 6th Jan 2014.
If Bitcoin falls $30, it breaches a support trend that has been with us since 6th Jan 2013.

hmmm.

If Bitcoin rises $150, it takes out the resistance trend that has been in place since Dec 17 2013, with no further EW resistance trendlines above it.

As for DanV, he has been calling Bitcoin correct for months. Everyone else has not. Just watched a video of his from Jan 5th, on the eve of the $995 top, and he was stating that his analysis was telling him that we could expect a retest of the $450 low (he was using MtGox charts back then). Who else was stating that back then? No cunt! He was right, everyone else was wrong, which would suggest to me that DanV has the all important context of his EW cycles correctly aligned, whereas everyone else doesn't.

I am with you on the lesser resitance line of the first wedge. If Bitcoin goes above here and holds, I will be looking at a tentative long punt. But would this prove to me that the low is in?Erm....No.

Its bull run from today onwards. Reason is because there is no more people in china holding BTC!!!! (maybe but really little). So its to the moon!!!

I dont see your argument why 'short term' if up, long term if down. not consistent. a wedge is a wedge, it can go up or down.

I have seen his charts, I know his position. he admits that he is ignorant of the fundamentals too. the fifth wave that is coming could take out 10k even if it is not a blow out fifth wave. we will break new highs. the analysis that I believe he is wrong about it the descesding impulse down to 266. Wave C has clearly terminated. it was an impulse and it has no steam left. this count is about to be invalidated.

I don't think you have been following what he has said fully. If you had, you would know that we are some $150 away from the resistance trendline which would have to be breached to confirm DanV's Wave 4 has bottomed at $340. On the otherhand, we are a $30 move away from breaching the long term support trendline, which if Bitcoin holds above, would establish a strong short-term bullish case, but if it falls below, then we are then looking down at DanV's large cycle support line currently hovering at $100 (which isn't to say that Bitcoin will go to $100).

DanV's position isn't so much that Bitcoin is headed into the ground from here, but that if there is a break-out above these trendlines, then Bitcoin isn't going 2 da moon. It may take out the ATH by a small margin, it fall a bit short. The crux of his argument is that we are somewhere in Wave 4 territory, and that Wave 5 can never have the strength of a Wave 3 (i.e. Bitcoin aint going to da moon anytime soon).

follow the fractals, and you will see this is not going to his plan. we should be going down right now. instead we are loser to breaking up out of the wedge on huobi than breaking down. his analysis is resting on a $30 move. dont put too much faith in it. there are alternative counts that are playing out better right now.

Erm, no it isn't and we are much closer to breaking the support trend (currently $425) than the resistance trend (currently $595).

Should the market avoid breaching the extended cycle support trendline, and breach the resistance trendline that has been with us since $995 in early Jan 2014, then I shall certainly look to take a tentative long position. Currently, the minor resistance trendline is at $480, but if it is going to breach, I imagine that it will occur around the $460-$470 mark. For DanV's Wave 4 to be proven to have bottomed at $340 (which he isn't ruling out by the way), Bitcoin is going to have to get up over $580, providing this thing is to play out within the next few weeks...it might not.....market might stagnate for months...not like it hasn't done that before.

DanVs analysis is breaking up as we speak. wave C is likely complete. the IV wave does not need to bottom within the price range of wave iv, but it tends to bottom above the price low of wave IV ($50). Indicators are diverging to bullish favour within the scale of the correction. clear H&S forming, and we have made a strong base on top of the lower wedge trendline. Bullish EW counts have been playing out accurately assuming the 339 low was followed by a primary.

There is also a very strong argument for Bitcoin Being on a grand cycle Wave 4 EW retracement. With Wave 3 starting at around $5 in May 2012, and terminating at $1160 in Dec 2013, as per DanV (if anyone hasn't seen his charts/videos I suggest they give his name a google). If this were to pan out, then a 62% (textbook wave 4 retracement ratio) retracement would equate with an ultimate bottom price of around $260, which is of course the price of the April 2013 high. It would all be textbook stuff if it pans out this way and from the short time I have been learning TA and watching Bitcoin, Bitcoin does tend to adhere to textbook TA principles. Granted, zoom in to the short term charts and try to start applying these TA principles there and expect to get chopped about like crazy. But over the bigger picture, Bitcoin likes to tick all the TA 101 boxes.

Don't say it doesn't, cos it does.

Not just ema; everything on the weekly chart is different from 2013. All the indicators. Everything is diverged and disjoined. So I don't see why there would automatically be any similarity.

Why not? because EMA is down? 

Even IF this was the reversal, why does everyone want to compare the recovery to the recovery in 2013? People are in a rush to make exact comparisons to the 2013 chart. "First itll go 600 for 3 weeks, then 800 for 3 weeks, then 1000, then the moon, bla bla bla".  Why? What makes 2013 so special? That was a completely different chart. The 1W EMAs were up. This time they are down.

Probably the same traders that like 420.

I seen 666 going steady for a while (months ago).  I think it means something  

The Chinese don't trade in US dollars.  But I remember 4444¥ being a sticking point.

Rule of thirds will bring us to 466. It may stall if low volatility keeps us down in the Fifties at 450. If 466 doesn't hold then we'll stay sideways between Chinese magic 444 and rule of thirds 433. If it holds, then possible run up to the Chinese magic 555 before Western bears rule of thirds us back to 533, then back to Fifties level 500. Bitcoin speculation is ruled by magical thinking.

bear is over. +1 for bull. Broke out of channel last few days. Now sideways for a bit i think. Run up to 580usd can now happen any day i think. If we are then stable without much dumping in the 500s and 600s we will see 800 and 1000 very, very soon after that. Don't be left behind.

yes, feathercoin _DEFIANTLY_ is the best...

I'm not sute about BTC but GooG is inflated (loads of fake promises)  ... I will sell that shi5