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I will keep her content originally as it is. My own thinking is above.
▶️ Some questions & predictions
- When will Bitcoin break its ATH? November 2024
- When will the bull run end? September 2025
- When will most of the new 100x alts be released? Jan-July 2024
Why do I think this? I'll show you below 👇
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This Time Is NOT DifferentAll I've heard for the past 2 years is "This time is different".
They said the bear would be longer because of FTX and recession...
They said the BTC would break its ATH sooner because of ETFs...
Yet, things have been exactly the same 👇
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Market TopsIn 2017 the bull market peaked exactly 29 months before the halving. In 2021 it did the exact same thing.
Alright, I know, it might just be a coincidence. But what if I told you...
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Bear Market LengthBoth the 2018 and 2022 bear markets lasted exactly 12 months. This is crazy when you consider how many people were saying this bear market would be way longer and deeper.
But was it deeper?
No, it wasn't. In the 2018 market, Bitcoin retraced 84%. In the 2022 one there was only a 77% retrace.
So all the drama around the bear market and it ended up being the exact same length as the previous one and percentage-wise... better.
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All Time HighIn the last two cycles, Bitcoin broke its all-time high 7 and then 8 months after the halving.
The ETF has so far not propelled BTC to 100k overnight as many assumed. I think that like the last two time, it will be 7-8 months, so, November 2024!
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Bull RunThe last three bull runs lasted 9, 9 and 11 months respectively. This one could be longer but I think 9-11 months is a good target to keep in mind.
I think the next run peaks around September 2025 give or take a month. Let's talk profit-taking.
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Taking Profit I'll take partial profit slowly the whole run up. I believe that if you're up big you should 5%-10% out to secure profit.
A lot of people say "Don't sell strength"... meh. In crypto things can go from strong to dead in hours.
I'll take a small amount of profit on alts that pump hard but as we get closer to Sep 2025 I'll ramp up profit taking. This is a loose plan and could change!
Some profit will be moved out of crypto and the rest reinvested in new projects with more upside potential 🚀