Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you - page 4.

Zaguru12

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Quote from: AbuBhakar on January 28, 2024, 01:04:29 PM

My biggest hurdle right now is the courage to enter whenever the price is being nuke while I can’t buy either when the price is pumping. This is not my problem in the past but given the fact that the hype on ETF is already over makes me overthink that the price will suffer first a long bear market before we experience a massive bullrun just like what we are experiencing in every cycle after the halving.

This is exactly the kind of phobia that long term holding pattern actually eliminates. The bitcoin price is always unpredictable with or without the ETF hype so if you’re having trouble about whether the price will fall more the bull run will kick starts now, which is not common according to past trends I will tell you to simply go long term and probably calculate the average price of your current holding and then set a price target to take profits, this way you’ll be at peace holding and wouldn’t be scared of this fluctuations.

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Does anyone here still waiting for that massive correction around 30K or below before the real bullrun or this kind of waiting is already bullshit?

FUDs are still predicting this although some traders haven’t rule this out but one thing is don’t depend on speculations, take the chance now and invest you can use the DCA method which has been a productive pattern use by many in the past. Waiting for a correction might be a risk too much because there is possibility that it wouldn’t come again.

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Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on January 28, 2024, 01:04:19 PM

Quote from: tranthidung on January 28, 2024, 08:26:27 AM

Don't try to find All time high, you can not predict it correctly and you will only know ATH of a cycle after you are already in a bear market.

That's a good recommendation in general, not just for newbies. I'd also add: Don't try to find the ~~all time~~ bear run low. As it appears to this date, it was $16k on December 2022, after the FTX news. Not that it matters currently, we're in the middle of a bear and a bull.

In general it is good advice, what happens is that if you have experience and knowledge on the subject, in addition to making DCA, you can do DCA partial sales at certain times. For example when the price clearly beats the previous ATH, say when it is at $75K, then when it hits $105K (I foresee huge resistance at $100K) and then put in every $25K after that figure. JJG has fairly detailed posts on this.

With knowledge you can do variants of DCA by taking advantage to buy more in bear markets and do partial sells in bull markets.

AbuBhakar

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🇵🇭

My biggest hurdle right now is the courage to enter whenever the price is being nuke while I can’t buy either when the price is pumping. This is not my problem in the past but given the fact that the hype on ETF is already over makes me overthink that the price will suffer first a long bear market before we experience a massive bullrun just like what we are experiencing in every cycle after the halving.

Your chart of bullrun is really helpful to become optimistic on the future. The timing to enter is what making me problem right now.

Does anyone here still waiting for that massive correction around 30K or below before the real bullrun or this kind of waiting is already bullshit?

BlackHatCoiner

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Farewell, Leo

Quote from: tranthidung on January 28, 2024, 08:26:27 AM

Don't try to find All time high, you can not predict it correctly and you will only know ATH of a cycle after you are already in a bear market.

That's a good recommendation in general, not just for newbies. I'd also add: Don't try to find the ~~all time~~ bear run low. As it appears to this date, it was $16k on December 2022, after the FTX news. Not that it matters currently, we're in the middle of a bear and a bull.

Quote from: Ruttoshi on January 28, 2024, 11:44:19 AM

It is just that it will not be accurate or exactly like the previous ones, but from past event,it shows that it might be similar, and the odds are high.

Yeah, that's pretty much why I don't consider Bitcoin a risky investment if the time span is more than four years. As long as it retains this "unofficial currency / financial instrument" title, it follows that pattern. And I know, we shouldn't rely on statistics, and it might break the pattern this time, but the fact that it has repeated for like four times should tell us something.

Yatsan

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I was planning to buy a new car but since bullish direction is obvious with market prices of crypto, I decided to postpone my plan and just wanting to put all of it for third quarter of this year where uprise is expected. My plan is to accumulate as much as I can and hold it until the next cycle of Bitcoin. I know things won't happen in a instant so yes, I still create a margin for my bills and expenses and to avoid the tendency of pulling out my assets and holdings. I know most of us are having or thinking of the same thing and I hope all of us will make big profit by that time this market again break the ceiling. Planning will be always needed to lessen mistakes. Remember that entry point could be crucial so better be conscious of making rush decisions.

Based on charts and previous witnessing of bulltrend, things will not be consistent. It is important to know when is the right time to sell or buy again if you are into swing trades. And if you are looking forward with long term holding, be sure to avoid checking smaller time frames or prices from time to time. Know your goal and create your own vision of how you will be making a move this time. Everything is in our hands and that should be an enough reason for us to be careful for the right timing.

tabas

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I agree with everything you've said that we will not be able to find out that it is the peak of the bull run. But whenever we do, that's nice and we're able to spot out the top of it because normally, we don't. We can take a guess when we get there but we can't be sure if greed will hit us or not.

Quote from: Ruttoshi on January 28, 2024, 11:44:19 AM

I am new in bitcoin and I haven't experienced any bull run after the halving, and this will be the first halving and bull run that I will experience. But from the article that you provided, it shows that bitcoin has repeated history, over and over again, which means that we should expect such price movement during this period to the ATH. It is just that it will not be accurate or exactly like the previous ones, but from past event,it shows that it might be similar, and the odds are high.

It is a cycle and the patterns that we're seeing might change or could be the same and we're getting close to that.

Quote from: Ruttoshi on January 28, 2024, 11:44:19 AM

Due to the fact that I can't really tell when the new ATH will be, I have decided to have a price target that if bitcoin price reaches, I will take profit, and if it doesn't reach such price target, I will just wait and hodli. I plan to sell only 40% of my portfolio, and hodli the rest. I don't play with altcoins because they are like gambling, due the pump and dump nature.

That's a good strategy, you have to set a price target because as said, you will be having hard time to determine if that's the ATH. The emotions will be high when we keep on seeing the surge and to the point that you may miss the ATH and not be able to sell, we can point that fault to ourselves if we are not able to take profits.

Ruttoshi

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I am new in bitcoin and I haven't experienced any bull run after the halving, and this will be the first halving and bull run that I will experience. But from the article that you provided, it shows that bitcoin has repeated history, over and over again, which means that we should expect such price movement during this period to the ATH. It is just that it will not be accurate or exactly like the previous ones, but from past event,it shows that it might be similar, and the odds are high.

Due to the fact that I can't really tell when the new ATH will be, I have decided to have a price target that if bitcoin price reaches, I will take profit, and if it doesn't reach such price target, I will just wait and hodli. I plan to sell only 40% of my portfolio, and hodli the rest. I don't play with altcoins because they are like gambling, due the pump and dump nature.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

My recommendations

Don't try to find All time high, you can not predict it correctly and you will only know ATH of a cycle after you are already in a bear market.
Don't time the market. Let's the market runs and try to exit with market cycle length, that you can base on Bitcoin history.
Each cycle is unique and it can be longer or shorter than previous cycles but if you make your strategy on average cycle length, you will not take profit too far from the ATH & more important you will be able to avoid stuck too deep in a bear market.
If you don't want to exit the market by taking profit with all bitcoins you have, do DCA for profit taking, withdrawal like this strategy.
- [ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy
- https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy
Biggest common mistake of newbies is trying to find absolute bottom or ATH. Just don't!

Now, let's use following flow of thinking and plan from LadyofCrypto1.

I will keep her content originally as it is. My own thinking is above.

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▶️ Some questions & predictions

When will Bitcoin break its ATH? November 2024
When will the bull run end? September 2025
When will most of the new 100x alts be released? Jan-July 2024

Why do I think this? I'll show you below 👇
▶️ This Time Is NOT Different
All I've heard for the past 2 years is "This time is different".

They said the bear would be longer because of FTX and recession...

They said the BTC would break its ATH sooner because of ETFs...

Yet, things have been exactly the same 👇

▶️ Market Tops
In 2017 the bull market peaked exactly 29 months before the halving. In 2021 it did the exact same thing.

Alright, I know, it might just be a coincidence. But what if I told you...

▶️ Bear Market Length
Both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets lasted exactly 12 months. This is crazy when you consider how many people were saying this bear market would be way longer and deeper.

But was it deeper?

No, it wasn't. In the 2018 market, Bitcoin retraced 84%. In the 2022 one there was only a 77% retrace.

So all the drama around the bear market and it ended up being the exact same length as the previous one and percentage-wise... better.

▶️ All Time High
In the last two cycles, Bitcoin broke its all-time high 7 and then 8 months after the halving.

The ETF has so far not propelled BTC to 100k overnight as many assumed. I think that like the last two time, it will be 7-8 months, so, November 2024!

▶️ Bull Run
The last three bull runs lasted 9, 9 and 11 months respectively. This one could be longer but I think 9-11 months is a good target to keep in mind.

I think the next run peaks around September 2025 give or take a month. Let's talk profit-taking.

▶️ Taking Profit
I'll take partial profit slowly the whole run up. I believe that if you're up big you should 5%-10% out to secure profit.

A lot of people say "Don't sell strength"... meh. In crypto things can go from strong to dead in hours.

I'll take a small amount of profit on alts that pump hard but as we get closer to Sep 2025 I'll ramp up profit taking. This is a loose plan and could change!

Some profit will be moved out of crypto and the rest reinvested in new projects with more upside potential 🚀

Topic: Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you - page 4. (Read 779 times)