For those who've missed it:
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-April/013996.htmlhttps://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/mining-manufacturer-blocking-segwit-benefit-asicboost/Summary of the situation: Bitmain has been producing and mining with ASICs using an exploit that gives them a dramatic advantage over competing miners. This exploit is incompatible with Segwit, so Bitcoin Unlimited was created to gin up the appearance of public opposition to Core and place monopoly control over bitcoin mining and the protocol in the hands of Bitmain and associates.
The exploit also incentivizes miners to mine empty blocks, which has aggravated the TX bottleneck situation and contributed to high fees.
While they have been exposed, it is not clear to me that there is any reason they will be shut down in the near term. In other words a conspiracy has been unmasked, but not defeated.
ISSUE: ASICBOOST provides a ~30% mining advantage over non-ASICBOOST miners.
NEAR-TERM RISKS:
1. BitMain keeps mining empty blocks. TX fees remain elevated.
2. BU keeps blocking Segwit from reaching 95% consensus. TX capacity remains throttled.
3. By extension, the Lightning Network continues to be blocked/delayed/impaired insofar as SW provides the best implementation for it.
LONG-TERM RISKS:
1. Bitmain runs all opposition out of business and assumes monopoly control over mining.
COUNTERMEASURES:
1. Patent infringement? This is outside of the bitcoin communities' control, but one countermeasure is if Bitmain is infringing on the original ASICBOOST patent and it can be upheld in a Chinese court. I'm not optimistic here but it has to be listed as a possibility.
2. UASF for Segwit/Gregory Maxwell's countermeasures (see link above). A UASF introducing Segwit would force Bitmain to either mine BTC while abandoning their ASICBOOST exploit, or hardfork away with their own altcoin.
3. ? Other options?
LONG-TERM COUNTERMEASURE:
This episode has taken the issue of mining centralization from a relaxed discussion about future risks to bitcoin to an imminent crisis. BU was close to 50% hashrate in the weeks leading up to this expose. A craftier pair than Wu and Ver might pull off a coup next time. Long term no cryptocurrency can survive and thrive in an environment where monopoly control is threatened or possible.
At the same time I want to emphasize that a raw majority of miners did not join BU and should not be unfairly penalized for their actions. They've made tremendous investments in specialized hardware and should not be bankrupted in a rash reaction to this situation.
Fortunately, the ROI on bitcoin mining hardware is pretty short - less than a year from all I've seen. The means the Core development community can, after due process, provide a roadmap covering several years. One that leads back to decentralization of mining. Thus I urge Core to:
1. Provide a roadmap away from the current ASIC-based paradigm back to mining with desktop-based hardware, over a timeframe that allows the mining community to maintain profitability (without the pressure of Bitmain's advantage weighing on them, through SW deployment).
2. Formalize a public policy that such a decentralized mining paradigm will be maintained. Either by altering algorithms or through other mitigating actions to defeat any ASIC or other specialized hardware implementation that significantly centralizes mining.
Just my 2 satoshis,
ebliever