ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1031.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: SmiGueL on June 03, 2013, 08:36:43 AM

For the charts I use the average hashrate of solo-mined blocks in the last 36h, and the current real-time hashrate on the sites they are mining on (currently BTCGuild)
I think 2 - 3 days is the 'sweet spot' but blockchain.info doesn't allow me to go back more than 250 blocks in their API..
_{(I asked them in their thread, no response..)}

Other site I can use is http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php but they don't include timestamps AND some mined blocks by ASICMINER show up on their list as unknown...

If someone knows a site with an API which goes back than 500 blocks (or more) then please let me know

I have blocks and (translated from hex) coinbases for the last couple weeks. They update in realtime, but I don't have anywhere to put them for real time access.

If you use R I'd be happy to share with you the code that queries bitcoind, records blocks, blocktimes and translates the coinbase (although running bitcoind from a hosted server may be a problem). Easy from there to generate nice charts automatically.

Otherwise you can get the coinbase for all blocks from blockexplorer.com, but you'd have to grep the hex value of the ASICMiner coinbase signature yourself.

radiumsoup

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Quote from: runeks on June 03, 2013, 08:18:47 AM

I'm tracking the solo mining hash rate on my site. I have a chart with 24-hour, 3-day, 7-day and all-time average: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

It's important for everyone to understand that you (and most others who generate this type of data) are tracking an EXTRAPOLATED hash rate based on the rate of found blocks over time... since luck/variance will affect the calculation (especially with short timeframes like 24 hours or less), it would be better to describe this as "blocks found over time" instead of "hash rate" so people don't fall into the trap of thinking that hardware is being taken online and offline for whatever reason, since this seems to just fuel needless speculation.

stripykitteh

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Runeks, thanks for that. Short-term luck really can skew the estimate!

SmiGueL

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For the charts I use the average hashrate of solo-mined blocks in the last 36h, and the current real-time hashrate on the sites they are mining on (currently only on BTCGuild and with a few sticks or blades on BitMinter)
I think 2 - 3 days is the 'sweet spot' but blockchain.info doesn't allow me to go back more than 250 blocks in their API..
_{(I asked them in their thread, no response..)}

Another site I can use is http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/blocklist.php but they don't include timestamps AND some mined blocks by ASICMINER show up on their list as Unknown...

If someone knows a site which shows the relayer + timestamp and that goes back 500 blocks (or more) then please let me know

runeks

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Quote from: organofcorti on June 02, 2013, 10:06:41 PM

Quote from: stripykitteh on June 02, 2013, 09:54:00 PM

Quote from: BlackLilac Grant on June 02, 2013, 09:43:30 PM

Hashrate is still ~21 TH/s... didn't it go up to around 28 a day or two ago, or did I dream that??

Not dreaming, you can see it on http://www.asicminercharts.com.

I do not know if it was a test run deploying new kit. I've noticed in the past when the hash rate goes up to a new high it tends to come down again before retracing up again. It looks like it's climbing now.

Variance. I'll try to get time to post a chart which should provide a better indication of hashrate than a daily average.

I'm tracking the solo mining hash rate on my site. I have a chart with 24-hour, 3-day, 7-day and all-time average: http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

The 24-hour average did climb, but it was probably just a streak of good luck. The 3-day and 7-day averages are all climbing though. It's clear that ASICMiner has added hashing power to solo mining in the past week. But the 24-hour average (much less the 12- and 6-hour average) aren't reliable estimates of the hash rate.

This is only an estimate of the solo hash rate though. You need to add 7 Thash on top of that from BTCGuild. So a good bet is that they're hashing at around 25 Thash/s in total.

A more interesting figure though, is the coins mined since last dividend payout. This is what's really relevant to shareholders. It's already above the level at the previous pay, Wednesday last week, so it's fairly certain that they've added extra hashing power to solo mining:

Again, these charts are only for solo mining. So add another 40% on top of that from BTCGuild. I'm counting on ASICMiner going 100% solo, so I'm not adding a tracker for BTCGuild. But I'm not sure whether than has been announced or not.

Eric Muyser

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You can't kill math.

Quote from: stripykitteh on June 03, 2013, 02:46:49 AM

I think you've got a decimal place wrong there. Bitfury's miner is 120GHash, and is available on pre-order for 30BTC.

Not ignoring the risk, but it works out at 30/120,000 = 0.00025 btc/MHash, 28 times the hashing power of TAT's IPO. Not arguing which is the better investment; they'll cater to investors with different risk profiles.

Oops you're right. I jumped the gun on that one. Thanks much

16x YABMC too.

Lohoris

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Bitgoblin

Quote from: Jere.Jones on May 31, 2013, 03:45:46 PM

Quote from: tinus42 on May 31, 2013, 03:38:36 PM

And who says friedcat has to do everything himself?

What is ASICMiner's bus factor?

This is an excellent question, a pity it was ignored.

Or, it was ignored because maybe nobody knows the official answer (since the inner workings of ASICMINER aren't exactly clear), or because it is known that the bus factor is 1.

Just guessing.

(disclaimer: mind, I love ASICMINER, only sometimes things like this one worry me)

stripykitteh

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Quote from: Eric Muyser on June 03, 2013, 12:30:43 AM

Quote from: ionstorm on June 02, 2013, 10:22:06 PM

I hope people realize in 2 months the difficulty will be up to 100,000,000 and the asics they ordered months ago that arrive will make less than 50 a day. I believe as reality sets in people will rush to buy asicminer shares because soon it will be extremely unprofitable to mine alone. I'm considering cancelling preorders and buying asicminer shares exclusively.

We're already seeing guys marking up bitfury's from 17btc to 30 or 40btc.. giving it 0.003 per MH, waiting 3+ months, about half of TAT's IPO (0.007) that's *right now* and YABMC at 0.0041 also *right now* and still not going to be very profitable soon.

Yawn....

The only profit soon (kind of now) will be in hosting group buys, your own mining bonds, and companies actually doing something like asicminer. Yup.

I think you've got a decimal place wrong there. Bitfury's miner is 120GHash, and is available on pre-order for 30BTC.

Not ignoring the risk, but it works out at 30/120,000 = 0.00025 btc/MHash, 28 times the hashing power of TAT's IPO. Not arguing which is the better investment; they'll cater to investors with different risk profiles.

Eric Muyser

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You can't kill math.

Edit: missed a decimal place. Thanks stripykitteh. Phew.

stripykitteh

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Quote from: ionstorm on June 02, 2013, 10:26:21 PM

Also I was wondering what asicminers new plans are now that there is even more of an influx of chips from bfl, Avalon, and bit fury that will hit the Blockchain in less than 90 days. Will their planned 200th be enough? Has anyone worked out the new numbers in sustaining 30+ percent?

Very roughly, to come:

Bitfury ~200TH coming (100 for the mine, 100 for finished products). September is extremely optimistic for it all to be online. Say ~100TH.
Avalon finished products ~60TH (say 1/2 of batch 2 still undelivered and all of batch 3)
Avalon chips ~760,000 * .282GH = 214TH, but I think perhaps only 25% will be on by September, say ~60TH
BFL + KnC + others: hard to say, I don't think it will be much though. Perhaps 10TH all up.

I estimate 230TH of non-AM coming on in 90 days, with a high variance. It could be less, it's unlikely to be vastly more. AM would need to put on 3/7 * 230TH = ~100TH to maintain 30% share of the network, or achieve the same through sales.

Crystal-balling out further another ~200TH non-AM might be out by Christmas. Hopefully gen-2 rocks up by then.

ionstorm

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Also I was wondering what asicminers new plans are now that there is even more of an influx of chips from bfl, Avalon, and bit fury that will hit the Blockchain in less than 90 days. Will their planned 200th be enough? Has anyone worked out the new numbers in sustaining 30+ percent?

ionstorm

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I hope people realize in 2 months the difficulty will be up to 100,000,000 and the asics they ordered months ago that arrive will make less than 50 a day. I believe as reality sets in people will rush to buy asicminer shares because soon it will be extremely unprofitable to mine alone. I'm considering cancelling preorders and buying asicminer shares exclusively.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: stripykitteh on June 02, 2013, 09:54:00 PM

Quote from: BlackLilac Grant on June 02, 2013, 09:43:30 PM

Hashrate is still ~21 TH/s... didn't it go up to around 28 a day or two ago, or did I dream that??

Not dreaming, you can see it on http://www.asicminercharts.com.

I do not know if it was a test run deploying new kit. I've noticed in the past when the hash rate goes up to a new high it tends to come down again before retracing up again. It looks like it's climbing now.

Variance. I'll try to get time to post a chart which should provide a better indication of hashrate than a daily average.

stripykitteh

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Quote from: BlackLilac Grant on June 02, 2013, 09:43:30 PM

Hashrate is still ~21 TH/s... didn't it go up to around 28 a day or two ago, or did I dream that??

Not dreaming, you can see it on http://www.asicminercharts.com.

I do not know if it was a test run deploying new kit. I've noticed in the past when the hash rate goes up to a new high it tends to come down again before retracing up again. It looks like it's climbing now.

BlackLilac Grant

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Hashrate is still ~21 TH/s... didn't it go up to around 28 a day or two ago, or did I dream that??

canth

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Quote from: conv3rsion on June 02, 2013, 08:59:14 PM

Quote from: eleuthria on June 02, 2013, 04:31:49 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on June 02, 2013, 04:20:42 PM

Total hashing power of GPUs is about 20 ~ 30 Thps. Difficulty won't drop much when they leave.

To add to this: It took months for difficulty to drop after the 2011 crash. Difficulty actually kept on climbing for a while. There were significant chunks of time where most miners were mining at a loss. Many miners do not re-evaluate their profitability as often as you think, and they frequently forget indirect costs [air conditioning is a hidden cost that really screws up most miner projections when looking at larger farms].

You can expect that the rate GPU users turn off will be so staggered out due to bad math/persistence/hopes&dreams that it won't even be noticed due to the ASIC power coming online simultaneously.

To your point, look at the idiots currently mining litecoin, despite the fact that it is currently 15% less profitable then mining bitcoin (or 20% less profitable then merge mining sha256 coins). Even if they really believed longterm in litecoins, the right thing to do is to then would be to mine bitcoins and then to trade for litecoins. And we know that they could be mining bitcoins since every single litecoin mining device can also mine bitcoins (but obviously not the reverse). Numbers from dustcoin.com

TLDR; A lot of miners are morons who don't know what they are doing.

I don't disagree. I've done the math and I'm still running my GPUs on BTC mining. Sure at some point I'll have to stop, but it's profitable now so I'm not going to do that prematurely.

conv3rsion

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Quote from: eleuthria on June 02, 2013, 04:31:49 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on June 02, 2013, 04:20:42 PM

Total hashing power of GPUs is about 20 ~ 30 Thps. Difficulty won't drop much when they leave.

To add to this: It took months for difficulty to drop after the 2011 crash. Difficulty actually kept on climbing for a while. There were significant chunks of time where most miners were mining at a loss. Many miners do not re-evaluate their profitability as often as you think, and they frequently forget indirect costs [air conditioning is a hidden cost that really screws up most miner projections when looking at larger farms].

You can expect that the rate GPU users turn off will be so staggered out due to bad math/persistence/hopes&dreams that it won't even be noticed due to the ASIC power coming online simultaneously.

To your point, look at the idiots currently mining litecoin, despite the fact that it is currently 15% less profitable then mining bitcoin (or 20% less profitable then merge mining sha256 coins). Even if they really believed longterm in litecoins, the right thing to do is to then would be to mine bitcoins and then to trade for litecoins. And we know that they could be mining bitcoins since every single litecoin mining device can also mine bitcoins (but obviously not the reverse). Numbers from dustcoin.com

TLDR; A lot of miners are morons who don't know what they are doing.

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: oaxaca on June 02, 2013, 07:26:08 PM

Quote from: freedomno1 on June 02, 2013, 05:35:28 PM

https://i.imgur.com/5FKuUUB.jpg

Isn't that Josh from BFL in the white warmup jacket in the center of the picture looking like he wants to grab that woman's purse?

Actually it might be need to find SmiGueL and confirm that

oaxaca

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Quote from: freedomno1 on June 02, 2013, 05:35:28 PM

https://i.imgur.com/5FKuUUB.jpg

Isn't that Josh from BFL in the white warmup jacket in the center of the picture looking like he wants to grab that woman's purse?

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: binaryFate on June 02, 2013, 06:26:06 PM

OMG. So no official website AND a facebook fan page now Cheesy

Well people were asking for one for a while now

Sorry if it looks new it is ha-ha glad I can help out a bit with something
If you guys want to add something mail me hunted for some ASIC pics he-he if you got some more sexy ones please pass them on, also making a fan-based album and it's got a few pics would be happy to add to that collection

Off to find KFC Pic (It was found)
And resists urge to upload this as a troll vid for dividend time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfrWchX5rAU
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.4900

Played with the fanpage for a bit added some stuff in the About and a few images from around sourced everything from bitcointalk
Added a bunch of chart url's etc
If I missed something just call Macieck or everyone else

And finishes with a vid for now

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76EcAinKPDo

Not too sure what else to put on a facebook page so will take suggestions

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