ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1164.

organofcorti

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Quote from: ex-trader on April 26, 2013, 01:58:51 AM

The optimum strategy would be to get to circa 45% of the network as fast as possible, since speed is the key. Then sell any chips that can be sold, but keep enough to ensure that the capacity can be maintained at 45%.

In terms of chip value, clearly in BTC they will only go down over time as the coins they can mine going forward decreases and the price they'll achieve at volume sales is unclear. However if BTC keeps going up then the profits in USD can keep increasing.

I think people will be less likely to pay extravagant sums for a Blade if the hashrate has been significantly increased. You're better off selling hashrate until it's no longer quite as profitable, then start mining.

ex-trader

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The optimum strategy would be to get to circa 45% of the network as fast as possible, since speed is the key. Then sell any chips that can be sold, but keep enough to ensure that the capacity can be maintained at 45%.

In terms of chip value, clearly in BTC they will only go down over time as the coins they can mine going forward decreases and the price they'll achieve at volume sales is unclear. However if BTC keeps going up then the profits in USD can keep increasing.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: Rodyland on April 26, 2013, 01:12:48 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on April 26, 2013, 01:06:19 AM

My statement wasn't a value judgement on the choice to pay more per Ghps than a device is likely to earn, just that this seemed to be happening - and not just with Blade customers either. I'm certainly not saying that the decision to buy was stupid, just that the choice was apparently not motivated by profit.

Either that, or they have different assumptions about the likely future income of such a device than you or I or others do.

Although I agree with other sentiments - if a device is deemed to be worth more to asicminer as a miner rather than as a sale unit, then we should mine with it. However that assumes we have the ability to deploy all our units - and given that that's not the case, as I understand it, selling them seems wise from a shareholder's perspective.

If ASICMiner only adds 100Ghps to the network over say the next 100 days and the network hashrate remains the same forever after, a Blade would take ~550 days to pay for itself, assuming constant uptime. So the Blade is worth far more as a sale unit than a mining unit, if people are willing to spend more than the device is likely to earn over a lifetime.

Rodyland

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Quote from: organofcorti on April 26, 2013, 01:06:19 AM

My statement wasn't a value judgement on the choice to pay more per Ghps than a device is likely to earn, just that this seemed to be happening - and not just with Blade customers either. I'm certainly not saying that the decision to buy was stupid, just that the choice was apparently not motivated by profit.

Either that, or they have different assumptions about the likely future income of such a device than you or I or others do.

Although I agree with other sentiments - if a device is deemed to be worth more to asicminer as a miner rather than as a sale unit, then we should mine with it. However that assumes we have the ability to deploy all our units - and given that that's not the case, as I understand it, selling them seems wise from a shareholder's perspective.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: Rodyland on April 26, 2013, 12:52:28 AM

Quote from: asnonmous on April 26, 2013, 12:47:20 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on April 25, 2013, 10:44:33 PM

Quote from: asnonmous on April 25, 2013, 07:17:46 PM

If they are paying just the right amount, it makes no difference whether we sell or mine.

People are not going to pay the right amount though. So far it's clear they are are willing to far pay more for a Blade than it's likely to earn over the device life time - even if they get it within a few days of ordering.

So you think our customers are stupid then? Tongue

I take your Tongue

to mean that you are joking, but neither you nor organofcorti are the first to say those words, and I just want to get this off my chest:

Why do people have such a hard time coming to terms with the fact that value is subjective?

Just because they valued a 10GH/s blade at BTC75 (or whatever) doesn't mean that if that device doesn't mine more than BTC75 that they are stupid. Maybe they don't believe BFL will deliver, maybe they think Avalon will be late on all fronts, and maybe they are willing to gamble on that?

Even if difficulty did not ever increase from what it is today, it would still take ~ five months to return the initial cost. If the network increases only by the amount ASICMiner has promised, it will be enough to make it very unlikely that they'll get a return on their investment.

Quote from: Rodyland on April 26, 2013, 12:52:28 AM

Or maybe they have bitcoins to burn, and want to help distribute hashing power around the network?

Or maybe they just value the bragging rights of having one of the first publicly sold blade mining asic units in the world?

Their reasons are their own, and for you to label them as stupid is insulting to everyone.

Maybe so.

My statement wasn't a value judgement on the choice to pay more per Ghps than a device is likely to earn, just that this seemed to be happening - and not just with Blade customers either. I'm certainly not saying that the decision to buy was stupid, just that the choice was apparently not motivated by profit. So in the short term, selling hashrate will be far more profitable than mining with it.

TiuraZ

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Quote from: Rodyland on April 26, 2013, 12:52:28 AM

Quote from: asnonmous on April 26, 2013, 12:47:20 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on April 25, 2013, 10:44:33 PM

Quote from: asnonmous on April 25, 2013, 07:17:46 PM

If they are paying just the right amount, it makes no difference whether we sell or mine.

People are not going to pay the right amount though. So far it's clear they are are willing to far pay more for a Blade than it's likely to earn over the device life time - even if they get it within a few days of ordering.

So you think our customers are stupid then? Tongue

I take your Tongue

to mean that you are joking, but neither you nor organofcorti are the first to say those words, and I just want to get this off my chest:

Why do people have such a hard time coming to terms with the fact that value is subjective?

Just because they valued a 10GH/s blade at BTC75 (or whatever) doesn't mean that if that device doesn't mine more than BTC75 that they are stupid. Maybe they don't believe BFL will deliver, maybe they think Avalon will be late on all fronts, and maybe they are willing to gamble on that?

Or maybe they have bitcoins to burn, and want to help distribute hashing power around the network?

Or maybe they just value the bragging rights of having one of the first publicly sold blade mining asic units in the world?

Their reasons are their own, and for you to label them as stupid is insulting to everyone.

Or maybe they have free electricity and don't care how long it takes to the device to pay its purchasing price.

Rodyland

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Quote from: asnonmous on April 26, 2013, 12:47:20 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on April 25, 2013, 10:44:33 PM

Quote from: asnonmous on April 25, 2013, 07:17:46 PM

If they are paying just the right amount, it makes no difference whether we sell or mine.

People are not going to pay the right amount though. So far it's clear they are are willing to far pay more for a Blade than it's likely to earn over the device life time - even if they get it within a few days of ordering.

So you think our customers are stupid then? Tongue

I take your Tongue

to mean that you are joking, but neither you nor organofcorti are the first to say those words, and I just want to get this off my chest:

Why do people have such a hard time coming to terms with the fact that value is subjective?

Just because they valued a 10GH/s blade at BTC75 (or whatever) doesn't mean that if that device doesn't mine more than BTC75 that they are stupid. Maybe they don't believe BFL will deliver, maybe they think Avalon will be late on all fronts, and maybe they are willing to gamble on that?

Or maybe they have bitcoins to burn, and want to help distribute hashing power around the network?

Or maybe they just value the bragging rights of having one of the first publicly sold blade mining asic units in the world?

Their reasons are their own, and for you to label them as stupid is insulting to everyone.

asnonmous

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Quote from: organofcorti on April 25, 2013, 10:44:33 PM

Quote from: asnonmous on April 25, 2013, 07:17:46 PM

If they are paying just the right amount, it makes no difference whether we sell or mine.

People are not going to pay the right amount though. So far it's clear they are are willing to far pay more for a Blade than it's likely to earn over the device life time - even if they get it within a few days of ordering.

So you think our customers are stupid then? Tongue

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: asnonmous on April 25, 2013, 07:17:46 PM

If they are paying just the right amount, it makes no difference whether we sell or mine.

People are not going to pay the right amount though. So far it's clear they are are willing to far pay more for a Blade than it's likely to earn over the device life time - even if they get it within a few days of ordering.

imsaguy

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Quote from: iCEBREAKER on April 25, 2013, 10:42:32 PM

A coin in the blockchain is worth two in the mainframe.

IOW, it's better to get the money now because of the risks associated with mining (difficulty, hosting, hardware failure) and invest it in the next gen of 28nm chips.

Exactly.

iCEBREAKER

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Quote from: imsaguy on April 25, 2013, 10:08:46 PM

Quote from: asnonmous on April 25, 2013, 07:17:46 PM

If they are paying just the right amount, it makes no difference whether we sell or mine.

Except that if you sell, its coin in hand right away vs mining which takes a while to collect the coin.

A coin in the blockchain is worth two in the mainframe.

IOW, it's better to get the money now because of the risks associated with mining (difficulty, hosting, hardware failure) and invest it in the next gen of 28nm chips.

imsaguy

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Quote from: asnonmous on April 25, 2013, 07:17:46 PM

If they are paying just the right amount, it makes no difference whether we sell or mine.

Except that if you sell, its coin in hand right away vs mining which takes a while to collect the coin.

nebulus

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... it only gets better...

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on April 25, 2013, 07:11:02 PM

Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on April 25, 2013, 06:51:19 PM

The key thing is that ASICMINER won't be able to sell at that price again.

We won't know that until the next auction.

AM's proven record of rapid order satisfaction (which has now removed any uncertainty about their ability to deliver) and the resulting publicity may increase the final bids for future offerings beyond the initial results.

I think the point he is trying to make is that eventually price on the boards is going to decline.
Wanted to post a similar comment but he beat me to it.

asnonmous

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Quote from: iCEBREAKER on April 25, 2013, 07:11:02 PM

Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on April 25, 2013, 06:51:19 PM

The key thing is that ASICMINER won't be able to sell at that price again.

We won't know that until the next auction.

AM's proven record of rapid order satisfaction (which has now removed any uncertainty about their ability to deliver) and the resulting publicity may increase the final bids for future offerings beyond the initial results.

Exactly. A 4 day delivery time is insane compared to our competition. Each day of delay is worth, currently, ~0.6btc. The delays of Avalon are largely unpredictable. BFL flat out can't be trusted. AM delivers, and they deliver ridiculously fast.

Moreover,

Quote from: Rant2112 on April 25, 2013, 06:46:52 PM

At the price the Block Erupter Blades sold for I'd MUCH prefer that they sell the new ASICs rather than mining with them.

That is only true if you assume that the miners buying these are making a mistake. If they are overpaying it is better for us to sell them. If they are underpaying it is better for us to mine with them. I trust that they have worked out the math before making a bid for several thousand dollars. If they are paying just the right amount, it makes no difference whether we sell or mine.

iCEBREAKER

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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on April 25, 2013, 06:51:19 PM

The key thing is that ASICMINER won't be able to sell at that price again.

We won't know that until the next auction.

AM's proven record of rapid order satisfaction (which has now removed any uncertainty about their ability to deliver) and the resulting publicity may increase the final bids for future offerings beyond the initial results.

🏰 TradeFortress 🏰

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👻

Quote from: Rant2112 on April 25, 2013, 06:46:52 PM

At the price the Block Erupter Blades sold for I'd MUCH prefer that they sell the new ASICs rather than mining with them.

The key thing is that ASICMINER won't be able to sell at that price again.

Rant2112

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At the price the Block Erupter Blades sold for I'd MUCH prefer that they sell the new ASICs rather than mining with them.

SebastianJu

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Quote from: louong on April 25, 2013, 03:02:02 PM

Great summary, SebastianJu. Just wanted to add:

Quote from: SebastianJu on April 25, 2013, 08:23:21 AM

Asicminer-Shares to Asicminer-Passthrough-Shares Comparison:

Asicminer-Shares:
Pro:
* No delayed dividends compared to passthrough shares

Asicminer-Passthrough-Shares:
Con:
* Delayed dividends compared to non-passthrough shares

Asicminer-Passthroughs Comparison:

Burnsides AM-PT on btct.co
Pro:
* AM-PT: Usually dividends less delayed than AM-PT on bitfunder.com

DeadTerras AM-PT on bitfunder.com
Con:
* AM-PT: Usually dividends more delayed than AM-PT on btct.co

Thank you. Thats valid. Something has to be missed.

Quote from: lophie on April 25, 2013, 03:38:29 PM

Fixed?

Quote from: louong on April 25, 2013, 03:02:02 PM

Great summary, SebastianJu. Just wanted to add:

Quote from: SebastianJu on April 25, 2013, 08:23:21 AM

Asicminer-Shares to Asicminer-Passthrough-Shares Comparison:

Asicminer-Shares:
Pro:
* No delayed dividends compared to passthrough shares

Con:
* Harder to liquidate the asset

Asicminer-Passthrough-Shares:
Pro:
* Easier to liquidate and buy backs

Con:
* Delayed dividends compared to non-passthrough shares

Asicminer-Passthroughs Comparison:

Burnsides AM-PT on btct.co
Pro:
* AM-PT: Usually dividends less delayed than AM-PT on bitfunder.com

DeadTerras AM-PT on bitfunder.com
Con:
* AM-PT: Usually dividends more delayed than AM-PT on btct.co

I had it in the list as harder/easier to trade. But i added now that one can get faster/slower access to bitcoins/Shares to make it more detailed.

Franktank

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Quote from: organofcorti on April 25, 2013, 06:06:29 PM

Quote from: Franktank on April 25, 2013, 06:02:06 PM

Apart from friedcat saying it himself, there is no definitive way to determine AM deployment.

However, one could visit websites likes:

http://bitcoincharts.com/

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

From this, you could see that total network hash rate had jumped by 20 TH/s in the last couple days. Now, this leads to the following possibilities:

1) BFL had shipped en masse

2) Avalom Batch 2 shipment is completed

3) One man farm, hashing with over 1 million GPU cards

4) ASICMiner starting their deployment

You tell me

OK - I tell you: You're misinterpreting the hashrate estimate.

Use bitcoin.sipa.be on the 7 or 14 day windows. Do not use the bitcoincharts estimates. If you see the hashrate swining wildly it's nearly alway luck rather than massive jumps and drops in hashrate. I do my own analysis of the hashrate and as of 12 hours ago the network hashrate estimate stood at ~ 74 Thps. There has been no increases or fluctuations in the past few days.

Ok fair enough and thanks for clarifying. I was hoping for option 3 though...

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: Franktank on April 25, 2013, 06:02:06 PM

Apart from friedcat saying it himself, there is no definitive way to determine AM deployment.

However, one could visit websites likes:

http://bitcoincharts.com/

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

From this, you could see that total network hash rate had jumped by 20 TH/s in the last couple days. Now, this leads to the following possibilities:

1) BFL had shipped en masse

2) Avalom Batch 2 shipment is completed

3) One man farm, hashing with over 1 million GPU cards

4) ASICMiner starting their deployment

You tell me

OK - I tell you: You're misinterpreting the hashrate estimate.

Use bitcoin.sipa.be on the 7 or 14 day windows. Do not use the bitcoincharts estimates. If you see the hashrate swinging wildly it's nearly alway luck rather than massive jumps and drops in hashrate. I do my own analysis of the hashrate and as of 12 hours ago the network hashrate estimate stood at ~ 74 Thps. There has been no increases or fluctuations in the past few days.

Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 1164. (Read 3917543 times)