I keep on wondering how many shares all our 'new' friends around here managed to acquire. The shares have been, and still are, rather cheap right now. BUT, the BTC price rose quite a bit 4 months ago and now it's a lot more expensive to buy shares at about 400$. This is even almost more expensive than when AM was over 4 BTC and BTC at about 100$. Of course, people buying at IPO prices only paid 1-2$.
Keep in mind, I don't want to do the old "let's price everything in US-$", I rather lay out, why it is more difficult acquiring AM shares in respect of the FIAT you have to invest.
Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 469. (Read 3917591 times)
March 06, 2014, 08:30:37 AM
March 06, 2014, 06:17:07 AM
You'll also recall that I always stated that pricing AM100 at 95% of AM1 was a poor method.
While you have proven to be a good manager and never stole anything so far AFAIK, which is something I praise, I fail to see how can you honestly repeat this nonsense.AM100 pays 5% less than AM1, its price should be 5% less than AM1.
Simple math.
Denying math will get you nowhere.
AM1 other pro is that it can be converted to direct shares, while AM100 cannot.
AM100 only pro is that since it's a smaller denomination, you can buy it with leftover change. But holding more than 100 of them makes no sense in any situation.
March 06, 2014, 04:16:07 AM
I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months. The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.
Which 3-4% increase "right now"?
See the last two plots here http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
The daily growth rate has been steadily falling since November last year. It really looks like the explosion in network difficulty is seriously slowing down.
Not so long ago we were speculating the total network hashrate could quickly reach 1000PH/s. Now we're at 30PH/s and even 100PH/s seem far off.
Friedcat indicated in the "Chinese girl interview" that he would deploy/sell at least a few hundred PH/s.
So: What percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?
More than 50% does not seem unreasonable.
March 06, 2014, 03:19:45 AM
I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months. The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.
Which 3-4% increase "right now"?
See the last two plots here http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
The daily growth rate has been steadily falling since November last year. It really looks like the explosion in network difficulty is seriously slowing down.
Not so long ago we were speculating the total network hashrate could quickly reach 1000PH/s. Now we're at 30PH/s and even 100PH/s seem far off.
Friedcat indicated in the "Chinese girl interview" that he would deploy/sell at least a few hundred PH/s.
So: What percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?
More than 50% does not seem unreasonable.
March 06, 2014, 01:02:13 AM
I'm dying of suspense here.
March 06, 2014, 01:00:02 AM
KnCMiner Power Consumption:
0.7 / (1-30%) * (1-43%) = 0.57 J/GHash [1][2] (And this is at the lower end)
ASICMiner Power Consumption:
0.2J/GHash low voltage, 0.35J/GHash rated voltage [3]
So, ASICMiner chips should have a huge edge over power consumption. However, we still don't know which company can manage to massively deliver their miners earlier.
[1] https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78
[2] http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-pre-orders-next-asic/
[3] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4816701
0.7 / (1-30%) * (1-43%) = 0.57 J/GHash [1][2] (And this is at the lower end)
ASICMiner Power Consumption:
0.2J/GHash low voltage, 0.35J/GHash rated voltage [3]
So, ASICMiner chips should have a huge edge over power consumption. However, we still don't know which company can manage to massively deliver their miners earlier.
[1] https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78
[2] http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-pre-orders-next-asic/
[3] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4816701
March 06, 2014, 12:12:48 AM
KnC neptune at around 1.46 w/ghs. Quite far off.
March 06, 2014, 12:03:01 AM
KnC has taped-out their new chips: https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78
I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months. The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.
I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months. The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.
March 05, 2014, 11:19:51 PM
Has anyone done ROI calcs on chip selling at current price versus outright mining?
Yes, that person would be friedcat.
March 05, 2014, 11:10:15 PM
Has anyone done ROI calcs on chip selling at current price versus outright mining?
March 05, 2014, 10:52:55 PM
Nearly every other ASIC manufacturer has a horrible track record. KNC is mostly positive but they are branching out and offering wallet software and is now working with newspapers in Chicago. Asicminer is lean, focused, and has a proven track record. We are in for good times.
March 05, 2014, 10:20:26 PM
Would anyone like to provide a guesstimate of AM's percentage of total market hashrate with gen3 chips @ 0.5w/ghs over the next 12 months? thanks.
Ok modify the above query to: what percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?25-75%
Assuming chips meet estimated specs. Competition will not be able to compete with the price and efficiency.
As of now I think knc will be the biggest competitor. Bitfury and bitmain next gen are looking a bit lacking.
March 05, 2014, 10:06:07 PM
Would anyone like to provide a guesstimate of AM's percentage of total market hashrate with gen3 chips @ 0.5w/ghs over the next 12 months? thanks.
Ok modify the above query to: what percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months? 
March 05, 2014, 09:41:33 PM
What gen would have been dropped into Allied Controls immersion facility?
Gen1 chips. That's all that AM has produced up to now. Gen2 was skipped.
March 05, 2014, 09:14:42 PM
What gen would have been dropped into Allied Controls immersion facility?
March 05, 2014, 08:15:38 PM
I imagine our hashrate will be low... far lower then the 10% target of old. Once we see how fast raw chips fly off the shelves at a good profit, why do anything else? If the rumors of the first batch being sold out are true... I am expecting big lump payments of dividends instead of waiting for months while boards burn electricity. I see no reason to adopt a plan that makes us wait for our money while taking on additional risk.
March 05, 2014, 06:59:59 PM
Would anyone like to provide a guesstimate of AM's percentage of total market hashrate with gen3 chips @ 0.5w/ghs over the next 12 months? thanks.
March 05, 2014, 05:18:49 PM
This is the old sheet started by myself and then managed by eltopo for a good time, if you care to merge the data all together.
I would love if someone kept this up to date, hell maybe even go back and fill in missing days. That way we could track share movement and make sexy charts. If someone did that, I know I would give them some tips.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Am3MH7b0EM3adHJWR1RBQUJtcGI2SGZvMC1SdG5Ca2c&usp=sharing
Edit: What initially led me to make this chart was to track if all shares were accounted for, to which I found the answer was no... some shares got "lost" after GLBSE. One thing I notice from todays div is that far more shares are accounted for in todays div then have ever been in any data I ever took from a while back... are people claiming old lost shares?
I would love if someone kept this up to date, hell maybe even go back and fill in missing days. That way we could track share movement and make sexy charts. If someone did that, I know I would give them some tips.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Am3MH7b0EM3adHJWR1RBQUJtcGI2SGZvMC1SdG5Ca2c&usp=sharing
Edit: What initially led me to make this chart was to track if all shares were accounted for, to which I found the answer was no... some shares got "lost" after GLBSE. One thing I notice from todays div is that far more shares are accounted for in todays div then have ever been in any data I ever took from a while back... are people claiming old lost shares?
March 05, 2014, 05:03:07 PM
https://blockchain.info/address/1J5fvfUrDcZj8rrpVHMgn8u7sXee84QkPd
Neat
23001 shares tied to the pass throughs confirms havelocks escrow
Adds AM1 + AM 100 == Perfect match
Neat
23001 shares tied to the pass throughs confirms havelocks escrow
Adds AM1 + AM 100 == Perfect match
Ugh you just reminded me I should probably do a full update or the share ownership spreadsheet... unless someone else wants to do that!
Sorry for traumatizing you a bit az that is a scary list
That seen nice work Dhenson its been a while since the last list was changed
Also a good week to make a list since you can base it off of the havelock address and backtrack all the transactions for that address
March 05, 2014, 04:46:22 PM
Ugh you just reminded me I should probably do a full update or the share ownership spreadsheet... unless someone else wants to do that!
I was just working on this today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnxKtjWqWJGodC1fR3JDSFBpZ2tGbjBqdzJoeFlpOXc&usp=sharing
PM me your gmail address aahzmundus and I'll give you edit rights.
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