Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 536. (Read 3917468 times)

I do agree that the days of AM self-mining 10 to 20% of total network hash are likely over. But that doesn't matter.

AM isn't going to sell 20P and then go out of business. That is the FIRST BATCH of their next gen chips, which based on the prelim target specs will be highly competitive both in wafer cost and power efficiency.

It doesn't matter if AM self-mines, sells turnkey miners, or just sells chips as long as they are maximizing their profit. Is the profit margin for selling mining hardware decreasing? Of course, but based on the specs AM will be able to get a very healthy profit from their chips and/or miners.

Ugh network hashrate today is roughly 12 Ph/s. By 7/2014 the mining forum says it should lie between 40-160 PH/s

I appreciate your opinion, but we have very different perspectives. A lot of this is subjective, some of the numbers rubbery at best, there's too many unknowns, life is short. I'll leave it at that.

Really pankkake? Remember when shares where going for 4+ BTC and I said this:


To which you replied:


and,


Remind me how that turned out again. You guys are all blinded by greed again and you're all going to get burned again. I've shown you guys the numbers, if you don't believe those numbers, then use your own values and do the maths yourselves. Look at the facts.

Edit: I urge everyone to go back to page 20 of the speculation thread. The argument I made back then was blatantly obvious to me, yet I could count the number of people who understood that on one hand. People delude themselves into believing nonsense simply because they want that nonsense to be true. Unfortunately, reality does not work like that.

If AM had 20 Ph/s in their mines and the network hash rate was 250 Ph/s (as predicted by genesisblock), then it isn't possible for AM even get 10% of the network. That would require 25 Ph/s. Once their chips are all used up, it's all downhill until new chips arrive.

Clearly, you didn't even bother reading what I said.

Those mining scenarios are neither wrong nor elaborate. It's a simple scenario I created because people seem to be expecting AM to just recapture 10% of the network with their new chips. I was highlighting the fact that even if AM didn't sell any hardware, they couldn't even maintain a 5% share for more than two rounds under those conditions.


No, I'm not. Friedcat has claimed the first batch will between 2 and 20 Ph/s. How long will it take to produce a new batch of miners? What will be the size of that batch? What will the network hash rate be when the miner start to come online, etc.

This is the same mistake people made when they were buying shares for 4+ BTC. The 2nd batch of chips will be nowhere near as profitable as the 1st batch.

So why did you pose those elaborate (albeit wrong) mining scenarios then challenge us to fault your maths? (rhetorical Q)



What? So you're saying AM goes out of business? 20Ph and that's that?

in edit: personally I wouldn't mind if FC said no divs, re-investing in development. I hope he has aggresive and ambitious projects in the pipeline.

Methinks Mabsark is upset  he missed the under 0.30 boat.

The goal has long been to get 10% of the network. FC can do it. He has the technology, the resources, the facilities, and is the only one with a plan for what the market will look like in 4 months. At 10% of the network, that would support a share price of 1 btc assuming a 30% annual ROI from dividends alone. Hardware sales can boost it up much higher. This stock is a great long term bet. I just wonder why the move now, today. Inside information? FC has been known to drop good surprises on us.

My best theory is that when the price didn't plummet after the last dividend round with such crappy dividends, people on the sidelines decided that finally we reached bottom and started buying back in. If so, then we just found our support level and are solid until gen3 is released.

Like I said,


The problem here though, is that people will be expecting profits like those from gen 1 chips. That's clearly not going to be the case though. As I pointed out months ago when shares were trading at 4+ BTC, AM had a monopoly at the time which is why they could charge outrageous prices for their hardware. As soon as competition came out, the profits from hardware sales plummeted. Everyone thought I was mad back then for saying that but that's exactly what happened.

This time around, AM don't have a monopoly and there's a lot of competition. We don't really know anything about AM's new chips but they won't have as high a hash rate as the 28nm chips. They may have lower power consumption but that doesn't really matter that much for individuals buying a mining rig or two.

So, AM will be releasing new chips into a highly competitive market and they're unlikely to take the performance (Gh/s) crown. Why should people buy AM hardware if they can get better performance elsewhere? The answer has to be because AM is cheaper per hash.

Lets say that AM got 20 Ph/s and sold the lot in one go and distributed the profits as divs. What would those divs have to be like to make you think a share price of 0.4 BTC was good value?

I think you're way off base.

AM probably won't even do much mining, as FC said "It is a safe bet that we will be moving more to pure chip distribution".

I guess that's one way to gage the sidelines post in speculation and watch what the bench does
Interesting question as to the price rising though but that was quite fast
Maybe some news on the Chinese side they always get the info a bit faster than us
Either way to my knowledge the schedule still remains Jan 20
http://thegenesisblock.com/asicminer-gen3-hardware-announcement-sees-muted-market-reaction/

What a surprise, people clearly haven't done the maths on this one.

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s (gen1 mines) at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

That's what divs will fall to before the new chips come online. If we then plug in the numbers for AM's proposed batch size of 2-20 Ph/s and assume that this is put together by 14th May, using genesis block again gives the network hash rate to be 263.8 Ph/s. This gives the following:

* 2 Ph/s would represent 0.76% of the network, which is worth 383.04 BTC per round and 0.0009576 BTC per round per share.
* 20 Ph/s would represent 7.58% of the network, which is worth 3820.32 BTC per round or 0.0095508 BTC per round per share.

Let say the network hash rate was 250 Ph/s (based on genesisblock) and AM controlled 5% of the network. That 5% would represent 12.5 Ph/s. If the network hash rate increases by 20% that round, that would take the network hash rate to 300 Ph/s. In order for AM to maintain their network share, AM would need to add 2.5 Ph/s by the end of that round. In order to maintain their hash rate, the following extra hash power would need to be brought online by the end of each round:

Round 1 = 2.5 Ph/s
Round 2 = 3 Ph/s
Round 3 = 3.6 Ph/s
Round 4 = 4.32 Ph/s
Round 5 = 5.184 Ph/s
Round 6 = 6.2208 Ph/s

If AM had 20 Ph/s (max batch size according to AM), 12.5 Ph/s would be needed to control 5% of the network, leaving 7.5 Ph/s for sales and maintaining the network share until a new batch of chips arrived. The first 3 rounds require more than 9.1 Ph/s to be brought online to maintain 5%.

If the network hash rate is around 250 Ph/s and AM's batch1 is 20 PH/s then it can't maintain network share beyond 2 rounds even if it didn't sell a single chip. In reality, AM will sell a good portion of their chips.

Now, if you are reading this comment, and you come to the conclusion that AM is a good buy at above IPO price, the perhaps you could show us the maths which lead to that conclusion. All the numbers I'm seeing tell me to avoid AM.

This reminds me of when people where paying 4+ BTC per share. Some of us pointed out back then that such prices where insane because the maths didn't support it and the same is happening now. People are assuming AM will bring their new chips online, capture significant network share, maintain that network share and still sell a large chunk of hardware. That's just not possible tough based on the numbers being reported.

Do the maths, people.

I'm surprised too, I'd add to list that someone is deploying batch of 25TH/s each one on Eligius (currently 250 TH/s in total), and he's not AM, so some serious competitor is going to be revealed soon.
Gen3 tapeout is 17 jan but likely we will not see miners until march/april... what is going on?

By the way, I'm happy that the share price is recovering, just I really don't know why is happening

Panic buyers. People that have been waiting on the sidelines believe that the bottom has been found and are now buying in fearing that right now is as cheap as it gets.

Over 0.40 now. I don't get it. Worse dividends ever, no hope of anything better for weeks. Stock jumps up 50%.

Like this was the first time we have seen inside trading. The real battle will be who will buy cheaper and we will see in no time support for price. Ppl will realize that cheap 0.3 is long time gone.

0.5 BTC/Share in no time.

either somebody knows for sure the tapeout is on schedule or somebody is gonna lose a lot of money

Gen3 tapeout in ~17 days

Did I miss something?

1. Dividends are going lower because of Difficulty increase (-> Cointerra launch soon etc.)
2. No new statement from Friedcat
3. BTC price goes up
4. AM Share price goes up too ? (0.28 to 0.38@ Havelock] wtf?

We only have contact with friedcat himself, weather when he gets this information if he passes it off to an aid is unknown... what we do know, and what he has assured us of, is that when we send stuff to  his email, or forum account a request for a transfer we are indeed contacting him directly.