Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 722. (Read 3917468 times)

Hardly. Most businesses release product details, earnings guidance, business plans, etc. AM is supposed to be rolling out gen 2 "within the next couple months" and has shared no information. You are gambling here, and the downside is nasty - not to mention that gen 2 could launch as planned and still fail to compete, since we know next to nothing about the cost per unit or KW-h per GH or anything really.

Most companies that pay dividends provide some assurance of their ability to continue doing so in the future.


I've made quantitative value arguments that 2 BTC is a fair price only if AM is successful at retaining a significant chunk of the hashrate for many years. 10 BTC is highly unlikely.

Sure, we don't know. I like my odds, though.


There were skeptics at 0.2, yes. Rightfully so, since AM hadn't proven itself yet - but it is my understanding that at that point it DID share more of its business plan with the public. 0.2 was a decent bet, considering there was not much competition on the scene, and lots of coins up for grab until the rest of the competition could mobilize.

This is NOT a comparable scenario, since AM is LESS transparent and headed for extreme competition.

It's hardly a fear campaign. If someone says "this is ridiculous!!! how could you sell, AM has the highest dividends!!" I'm going to point out why that's not really important.

You say indeed, then disagree?


So you are talking about the viability of being able to trade the shares on a week to week basis for profit, rather than the viability of the company?

Indeed. Instead the share price is a reflection of the ability of the company to remain competitive in the future.

And the share price is a more significant factor in your ability to make money than the dividends are, given the degree of volatility.

You could say that about most businesses.


Or they could be worth more than 10 BTC, we just don't know.


And there were plenty of skeptics at 0.2. OOPS.

I thought you were going to stop spamming the thread with your negative bullshit? Factual, rational argument is welcome, and you occasionally have some worthwhile contributions, but the relentless hyperbolic fear mongering drowns out anything useful, and smacks of a self-serving smear campaign.

Dividends have some reflection on profits, and those profits are used to remain competitive.

The share price has no reflection on the future ability of the company to remain competitive.

How do you not understand that the current dividends are totally immaterial if the future ability of the company to remain competitive is in question?

You could make 0.1 BTC per share in dividends over the next 3 months - and then end up with shares worth less than 1 BTC.

Good deal, huh?  

There were a lot of people sputtering at 3.0 about how it was still a super profitable dividend security, too. OOPS.

lot of people ,they sold AM ,they think that other like activitmining or labcoin might get more return for them.
after several days , they found AM still the asset pays highest dividend....

Please hold the price line , As long as AM pays highest dividends, it is no reason to be so panic....Guys!!!

[um, some kind of measurement of acceleration / deceleration of power? For example the ability to ramp up hashrate rapidly? Or something?]


FTFY. Maybe.

Expansion by outsourcing is probably the only option FC has. To have too much acceleration in this process will dilute the quality of service.

I would like to have some figures about income from franchising and reseller's protected areas.

And if you are bearish, ask for PUTs ,) so you won't need to move your shares or don't even need to own some ,)

Damn, I thought the "S" was "super".  

Single White Agoraphobic Gamer

Stop Wasting Acronyms, Goddamit!

Edit: That seemed a lot funnier when I was thinking of it, not so much after typing it...

SWAG = Strategic Wild Ass Guess

Scientific is also used, but I learned my version from the military...

In either case it denotes a combination of big assumptions bounded by available information to get a likely outcome

"Scientific Wild Ass Guess"

Tesla actually has business plans. It IS a bubble, but that bubble would never have been possible without a clear plan for investors. However ambitious it may have been, they have been executing and exceeding expectations, and people now expect that performance from them. The hope is that Tesla grows to fit its bubble.

If Tesla fails to beat expectations (based on The Plan), that bubble will pop. Entertain the scenario of what would happen if they didn't even release a plan or issue guidance.

Tesla is guided hope. I am not auto-bearish, though I may pick up long-dated put options if they pass 180 this year.

I was under the impression Tesla's share price was currently in bubble territory for that exact reason...

I meant to say MW. A business near me draws 20MW constantly and offered to host some equipment.

Last October they did have a simulation of power usage though.

Other way around.

MW/h is a unit used for power plant startup speed, though it's usually given in W/s. It measures how quickly a power generation plant can reach full capacity from its off state. This has no relevance to ASICMiner whatsoever.

I would also like to observe that whatever Friedcat's exact Gen 2 plan, it has not been shared with the public. Competent investors do not buy companies where the potential for forward earnings is based entirely on their hopeful speculation.

In general it is the habit of successful companies to share their plans for continued success with their stakeholders. Imagine Tesla's share price if the best bullish argument was "Soon Musk is going to suddenly make even cooler cars - you'll see!"

As I said before - I am always bearish on misguided hope.


Super-wild-ass guess.

Yeah 2 MW/h is a nonsense unit.  Maybe that is why we didn't want to ship them.

2 MW = measure of energy
2 MWh = measure of power
2 MW/h =


This.  It is just an assumption that the 1 PH/s will be built out using existing chips.  An assumption that I think is unlikely otherwise we would be seeing the hashrate climbing the last couple months.  My SWAG is that AM is near its power capacity and that is why it has been selling of blades rather than expanding hashing power.  It will remain ~50 to 60 TH/s max until 28nm? 55nm? blades start to replace the existing 110nm ones.  For each new blade deployed they will sell off the existing used 110nm blade until the entire farm is "switched over".  Depending on the relative efficiency that would expand the farm's output by 4x to 15x without increasing the load.