ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 724.

lophie

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Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on September 06, 2013, 07:25:22 AM

Quote from: ex-trader on September 06, 2013, 06:44:24 AM

Quote from: chriswilmer on September 06, 2013, 06:35:59 AM

They are absolutely growing!

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=90&scale=0&address=

Thats simply shows they grew from the early levels when no-one was using BTC in '10/'11. Through 2013 they have not grown at all. In fact they have fallen substantially from the peak earlier this year - why?

Default TX fees per KB have been reduced from 0.0005 to 0.0001

While tx volume is constant?

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Quote from: ex-trader on September 06, 2013, 06:44:24 AM

Quote from: chriswilmer on September 06, 2013, 06:35:59 AM

They are absolutely growing!

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=90&scale=0&address=

Thats simply shows they grew from the early levels when no-one was using BTC in '10/'11. Through 2013 they have not grown at all. In fact they have fallen substantially from the peak earlier this year - why?

Default TX fees per KB have been reduced from 0.0005 to 0.0001

chriswilmer

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Quote from: ex-trader on September 06, 2013, 06:47:17 AM

Quote from: muyuu on September 06, 2013, 05:43:03 AM

We still have 2+ years ahead with 25BTC blocks. I think the fee discussion is fine as a general Bitcoin challenge, but not a current problem for ASICMiner.

But the fees are what many people are holding onto as where the income will come from when mining and hardware keeps falling.

Would you pay the same for Apple if you knew they had to cut their prices in half every 5 years?

That's the whole point of bitcoin though. There is no reason why transaction fees need to add up to less than the original block reward. The total from transaction fees, in BTC, has been growing by 10x roughly every two years (similar to growth of BTC/USD rate, coincidentally). So it would not surprise me if the total transaction fees per block in two years were 3-5 BTC/block (instead of 0.3-0.5 btc/block now), and 30-50 BTC/block in 4-5 years.

So, I think there will always be PLENTY of bitcoins to mine. Whether or not it is profitable to do so will depend on electricity costs, technology, etc.

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Quote from: ning on September 06, 2013, 06:29:20 AM

Quote from: muyuu on September 06, 2013, 05:43:03 AM

We still have 2+ years ahead with 25BTC blocks. I think the fee discussion is fine as a general Bitcoin challenge, but not a current problem for ASICMiner.

3+ (3.11) years ahead:)

Yeah, I meant that under 2 years we will have to factor it in because a 2 year ROI in BTC mining is about right.

Obviously, 3.11 is still 2+ Tongue

Quote from: ex-trader on September 06, 2013, 06:47:17 AM

Quote from: muyuu on September 06, 2013, 05:43:03 AM

We still have 2+ years ahead with 25BTC blocks. I think the fee discussion is fine as a general Bitcoin challenge, but not a current problem for ASICMiner.

But the fees are what many people are holding onto as where the income will come from when mining and hardware keeps falling.

Would you pay the same for Apple if you knew they had to cut their prices in half every 5 years?

That's the point. If you are closer than ROI to the halving then yes, you need to factor that in. But if you're still pretty far away there is not much point, provided how quickly things develop in Bitcoin world. In 1 year or 2 we will have to start looking at fees and how are they developing.

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Quote from: muyuu on September 06, 2013, 05:43:03 AM

We still have 2+ years ahead with 25BTC blocks. I think the fee discussion is fine as a general Bitcoin challenge, but not a current problem for ASICMiner.

But the fees are what many people are holding onto as where the income will come from when mining and hardware keeps falling.

Would you pay the same for Apple if you knew they had to cut their prices in half every 5 years?

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Quote from: chriswilmer on September 06, 2013, 06:35:59 AM

They are absolutely growing!

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=90&scale=0&address=

Thats simply shows they grew from the early levels when no-one was using BTC in '10/'11. Through 2013 they have not grown at all. In fact they have fallen substantially from the peak earlier this year - why?

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Quote from: ex-trader on September 06, 2013, 04:25:13 AM

Transaction fees are not growing.

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees.

Right now they don't even meet the cost of electricity to process them.

Also a lot of future growth will be off-chain transactions, which result in no fees to miners.

They are absolutely growing!

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=90&scale=0&address=

ning

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Quote from: muyuu on September 06, 2013, 05:43:03 AM

We still have 2+ years ahead with 25BTC blocks. I think the fee discussion is fine as a general Bitcoin challenge, but not a current problem for ASICMiner.

3+ (3.11) years ahead:)

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We still have 2+ years ahead with 25BTC blocks. I think the fee discussion is fine as a general Bitcoin challenge, but not a current problem for ASICMiner.

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Quote from: ex-trader on September 06, 2013, 04:25:13 AM

Also a lot of future growth will be off-chain transactions, which result in no fees to miners.

Which don't need to be processed by miners.

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Quote from: ex-trader on September 06, 2013, 04:25:13 AM

Transaction fees are not growing.

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees.

Right now they don't even meet the cost of electricity to process them.

Also a lot of future growth will be off-chain transactions, which result in no fees to miners.

Hey you're right, the block reward is still more than transaction fees!
good info

ex-trader

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Transaction fees are not growing.

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees.

Right now they don't even meet the cost of electricity to process them.

Also a lot of future growth will be off-chain transactions, which result in no fees to miners.

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Quote from: stripykitteh on September 06, 2013, 04:11:12 AM

If bitcoin commerce *does* take off, by 2016 there could be some mining companies with fair valuations in the millions.

Are those millions in bitcoin or old money?
We really should be in the speculation thread.

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Quote from: GodHatesFigs on September 06, 2013, 03:23:14 AM

I'd be very surprised if these shares were trading as high as 2 in a year's time.

If they stick to mining and hardware sales only I think you're probably right. A year in bitcoin-time is like 10 years. It is possible there is no dominant player in mining at that stage. A valuation that high might be fair if transactions do start to become significant, and AsicMiner remains a player. My guess is that the next year or two will be about regulatory hurdles and business infrastructure, and while that is happening transaction fees will remain low and margins on mining will drop significantly through increased competition.

If bitcoin commerce *does* take off, by 2016 there could be some mining companies with fair valuations in the millions. It's far too early to say that this will happen of course, and even if it does we don't know whether AsicMiner will be one of the winners.

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The game that the prez invented got coin moving. good for bitcoin.
And if you think he's hitting up the casino and banging whores, you've got another think coming.

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Quote from: GodHatesFigs on September 06, 2013, 03:23:14 AM

I'd be very surprised if these shares were trading as high as 2 in a year's time.

Had to quote that.
I'm not sure about the share price in a year.
Friedcat is a class act.

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I'd be very surprised if these shares were trading as high as 2 in a year's time.

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Quote from: GodHatesFigs on September 06, 2013, 02:42:32 AM

6 weeks is a little soon - I'm sure he'd take that bet on a 12 month timescale.

He does come accross a little funny, but i don't think he's that stupid.
Imagine what the prez is doing with his days, and decide the value from your imaginition.
This is bitcoin, not the nyse.

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6 weeks is a little soon - I'm sure he'd take that bet on a 12 month timescale.

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Quote from: Vycid on September 06, 2013, 12:55:23 AM

Quote from: helixone on September 06, 2013, 12:37:31 AM

Quote from: Vycid on September 05, 2013, 06:12:51 PM

Quote from: conv3rsion on September 05, 2013, 02:39:23 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 05, 2013, 02:33:59 PM

Quote from: conv3rsion on August 11, 2013, 10:02:52 PM

TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.

Quote from: conv3rsion on August 15, 2013, 02:07:38 PM

Quote from: Vycid on August 14, 2013, 11:04:48 PM

"Guys, where's the money for 0.04 per share gonna come from?"

"Volume!"

Hahahahaha. Grin

Quoting this for the future.

Quote from: conv3rsion on September 05, 2013, 02:14:47 PM

I do. That's why I'm a buyer again.

Remind me, when were you not a buyer?

Around 4 I was a holder, not a buyer. I'm pretty damn comfortable with 20% annual ROI, but I also have other things I want to invest in.

At 2 btc, its a question of whether Friedcat can mine and sell 5% of the network, and I'm pretty comfortable that he can.

This is an ABSURD statement.

2 BTC/share suggests a company value/market cap of 800k BTC. Typically that means we should see 800k BTC in profit over 10 years (about average for a fairly valued company, factoring in growth).

The block reward will halve to 12.5 in 2016, and again in 2020 to 6.25. Currently there are about 1.3M BTC up for grabs per year. So the potential REVENUE given 5% mining share is around (3 + 4 * .5 + 3 *.25) * 1.3M * 5% = 374k, less than half what we need for fair value.

But we need PROFIT. ASICs cost money to manufacture and take electricity to run. Long term I expect the margins to drop to 20% or below.

If you're gonna give me some crap about "transaction fees" you are not a value investor, you are a speculator. There is no evidence to suggest transaction fees are going to increase to a significant level.

Vycid,

Will you commit to selling me shares of AM in 6 weeks at 2.0/share? Since, this isn't an option but more of a futures play, you don't need to pay me a premium, and I am willing to escrow btc if you can prove ownership of shares, or are also willing to escrow a good faith btc deposit, with an agreed escrow agent. Thinking we each would put up 25-33% of the position, since btc assets are so much more volatile than other assets traded on futures markets.

-helixone

runeks has been offering fairly generous premiums for put options, so I don't see why you would offer this to me for free.

You would be obligated to buy the shares at 2.0, in 6 weeks?

No premium, however, both of us puts up equal escrow. (BTC puts suck from the seller point of view as one has to escrow the entire amount, and can't use ones portfolio as escrow.) Let me know privately or publicly:

a) what percentage of the position we should each escrow. I am proposing 25-33%, and if the position moves against either of us more than the escrow deposit, we either need to put up more, or forfeit the escrow. (traditional futures margin call).
b) how many shares you are looking to commit to selling.

-helixone

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