Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 725. (Read 3917468 times)

runeks has been offering fairly generous premiums for put options, so I don't see why you would offer this to me for free.

You would be obligated to buy the shares at 2.0, in 6 weeks?

Vycid,

Will you commit to selling me shares of AM in 6 weeks at 2.0/share? Since, this isn't an option but more of a futures play, you don't need to pay me a premium, and I am willing to escrow btc if you can prove ownership of shares, or are also willing to escrow a good faith btc deposit, with an agreed escrow agent.  Thinking we each would put up 25-33% of the position, since btc assets are so much more volatile than other assets traded on futures markets.

-helixone

ASICMINER's future is to self-mine, as the current growth of difficulty will discourage anyone from buying hardware. friedcat expected this environment from day one and it's encouraging that he priced his hardware properly the whole way down.

friedcat was smart to pick 55nm/65nm 2nd gen node size; chip efficiency won't matter until China runs out of cheap electricity and space or the difficulty increases much, much more. friedcat can probably produce more hashrate at 55/65 than any competitors can produce in 22/28, for at least some time. Mining is a very parallel operation and any companies working on efficient tech (like the absurd quad core miner which makes zero sense) are preparing themselves for mining in very tight margins some 12 months in the future.

I have my horses on friedcat no matter how many people decide to sell. I agree that it's much riskier now and that warrants a lower share price. I think friedcat has made some very calculated decisions and was clever with how he invested. He also has a ton of money he can spend on virtually whatever he thinks is necessary, and he wouldn't have put so much effort into 2nd stage business planning if he wasn't serious about the next steps he was taking. I also have no reason to doubt him considering what he has already achieved.

What a fascinating market. Good luck to friedcat and everyone else holding.

It's not going to stay at 40% APY. Next week's dividend is shaping up to be the smallest in a long while. AM controls a shrinking portion of the hashrate and hardware sales are tapering off. Competition is gearing up everywhere.

There's a lot of speculation about Gen 2 hardware but it's just that: speculation.

You could easily lose much more in share price than you get in dividends. Do you feel lucky?

(Do your homework, by the way. There's lots of information out there, you shouldn't trust me.)

hm at current prices AM looks really strong. 40% APY 2btc price 0.014divs , with room for growth(1000ths)
JD is around 35% atm with around 5k avg wagered and 50k invested, and their wagered has been declining.
 
any better place to invest your btc?

Let me document it this time: prior 7 blocks starting from this one (newest as of right now)

http://blockchain.info/block-index/414784/00000000000000040d3bd18e95ccb4c089bafaa4667f70efec145ae517e73e77

0.07420021 BTC
0.2445046 BTC
0.33552803 BTC
0.25201038 BTC
0.19562 BTC
0.18380026 BTC
0.19215369 BTC

Only one of those is even in the 0.3-0.5 range.

If someone would write a quick script and find the average over the past month that would be much appreciated.

Sorry, I thought it was clear that I meant 0.3 - 0.5 btc per block (which is in line with what you found).

I am not ignoring hardware sales. They are just a suboptimal business decision when you have 5% of the hashrate. People will not intentionally buy hardware at a loss, so it is a better deal to run your own hardware.

FC is leveraging sales at the moment because the margins are insane and he knows he'd better cash in before the competition squeezes him out. Plus he needs the operational cash to make more hardware.

Going forward the prices will drop, margins will thin, and price wars will ensue (we have already seen how much AM has already slashed prices; that is all lost profit per unit).

Also, I just looked at the last 7 blocks. All tx fees between 0.01 and 0.4. I suspect you are full of shit with "0.3 - 5 BTC"

You are ignoring hardware sales, which can increase the bitcoins above what is mined (essentially what ASICMiner is doing right now, making more profit from hardware sales than from mining).

Also, I fully expect transaction fees to become significant. Right now transactions fees are ~0.3-5 btc per block, and I am expecting the number of transactions per second to increase by 2-3 orders of magnitude over the next decade (as anyone who is bullish on bitcoin would). Since the value of BTC also go up, the transaction fees will go down, but not in a way that would equally compensate. Obviously we can't know how that dynamic will play out exactly, but seeing transaction fees adding up to 10-20 BTC per block is entirely reasonable to me.

More to the point, however, is that bitcoin mining hardware is certainly going to be in demand 10 years from now (assuming bitcoin has not died) and so if ASICMiner is still selling hardware then, that might be a very significant source of revenue (above bitcoin mining). Don't start telling me "you can't predict what's going to happen 10 years from now" because that is just what you are doing, and I am suggesting an alternative (and in my opinion more likely) scenario.

This is an ABSURD statement.

2 BTC/share suggests a company value/market cap of 800k BTC. Typically that means we should see 800k BTC in profit over 10 years (about average for a fairly valued company, factoring in growth).

The block reward will halve to 12.5 in 2016, and again in 2020 to 6.25. Currently there are about 1.3M BTC up for grabs per year. So the potential REVENUE given 5% mining share is around (3 + 4 * .5 + 3 *.25) * 1.3M * 5% = 374k, less than half what we need for fair value.

But we need PROFIT. ASICs cost money to manufacture and take electricity to run. Long term I expect the margins to drop to 20% or below.

If you're gonna give me some crap about "transaction fees" you are not a value investor, you are a speculator. There is no evidence to suggest transaction fees are going to increase to a significant level.

Any idea why AM is sending dividends from two addresses?

http://blockchain.info/address/115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF

and

http://blockchain.info/address/16fuoinLFjBmiCYmCYDXPNfERJtdPB5ASe

hlynur confirmed above that he got the divs from the 2nd address... I've seen folks getting it from the first one as well (talking about the last div from yesterday).

list of direct shares is not up to date but check here if you bought before 07/31:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtqphFCP56ordGVCakJxSU90MlB4MlBkZENya25pS2c#gid=9

i have direct shares and since 07/31 divs come from 16fuoinLFjBmiCYmCYDXPNfERJtdPB5ASe, before it was 115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF

Well, to get more to the point, I got a dividend payment, but it came from 16fuoinLFjBmiCYmCYDXPNfERJtdPB5ASe, not from 115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF directly.  So am I a shareholder, or is someone holding the shares for me?

The reception of the dividends is all the proof that's needed. They stopped sending the satoshis to avoid embedding dust into the blockchain.

I thought that Asicminer sent 1 satoshi per share to identify how many shares belong to each address.  115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF looks like the address used to send both dividend payments and satoshis, but it looks like the satoshis stopped being sent after 2013-05-29 (https://blockchain.info/address/115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF?offset=100&filter=0).  Did they stop doing this?  Isn't this the only official way to verify ownership of shares?

I'm not a trader, I'm a value investor. The fact that a few weeks of reduced dividends (where the reason stated for the reduction was reinvestment) scared people into dumping their shares has NOTHING to do with the company's performance or long term prospects. Reduced dividends I might add that STILL are averaging 40% APR on the current price.

You're lucky that your put options were able to be executed during their window, after all the price did MORE THAN DOUBLE since the time you began selling them. Avalon failed amazingly to ship their chips, BFL failed so horribly that they had to start preorders for yet another product (without their merchant account), and no other company still to this day can sell me an asic miner that will ship this week. Its september BTW.

Yet, a bunch of soon to be defunct mining companies (many of which invested in those failed avalon chips and BFL orders) sprung up and people got antsy and put bets on them.

Round one is over. AM made a fuck load of money. I'm happy I own shares for round two.

Vycid purposely playing dumb here.  How could you draw that out of what he said?  You've made some legit posts before that make an investor think more deeply about their investments.  This was not one of them.

Oh! I see. When you said "I think they are about to absolutely crush it" you meant "I think they need to halve in price before they will be worth buying."

Then sell me some puts. Unless you think dividends will surpass 0.029 on average for the next 12 weeks.

Around 4 I was a holder, not a buyer. I'm pretty damn comfortable with 20% annual ROI, but I also have other things I want to invest in.

At 2 btc, its a question of whether Friedcat can mine and sell 5% of the network, and I'm pretty comfortable that he can.