Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 768. (Read 3917468 times)

So, now that I'm behind a real keyboard and things are calmed down a bit (yes, I was on my phone - all my posts today were made from a Galaxy S3. Samsung should put me in a commercial), I'm going to share my thoughts on the update. While the fact that FC hasn't gone incommunicado is definitely a positive sign for longs, I believe that the content of the message is markedly less bullish than the reaction implied.


This is a good thing. Any movement of AM toward transparency is positive, in my book, although longs should be aware that transparency can be a double-edged sword. If things are going well, it will get noticed. If they are going poorly, it will get noticed. It may end up increasing volatility.


I've talked before about AM and its refusal to grow beyond an ASIC company. Certainly the upsides of expanding their business with the BTC market in the 1-2B USD range are limited, but if BTC never grows beyond 1-2B USD then AM is in deep shit to start with (FC loves to talk about transaction fees to justify valuation). Their cashflow should allow them to explore and capitalize on new business prospects far better than a start-up. Why is AM so lacking in vision?


This is a bad sign. Sure, their hashrate hasn't decreased, but they're having trouble managing their hardware at 50 TH. On the bright side, they managed to maintain a stable hashrate for a pretty long period of time, so it's not something they're incapable of, but it's not the trend you want. Downtime was more expected and forgivable close to launch.


I'm gonna address these two at once.


This means "we plan to play catch-up when other firms have finished localizing in the regions where electricity and rent are cheapest."

Vycid = epic troll.

Foxconn is building a new Data Center in Kaohsiung in Taiwan .
Friedcat may consider it.
It could be ready and operate this year.

Perhaps that's why. Clearly they're having enough difficulty with 50:


This is ultimately good news for Bitcoin as a whole. The harder it is to run big mining ops, the more decentralized things will be.

In the long run, though, I suspect extensive consolidation is inevitable based on the variance in electricity rates by region.

Great ! I come from Taiwan.
I will keep all shares on hand too.
ASICMINER is the world leader who can set up hash power quickly and sell miner machine without delay.

from what I hear it's pretty difficult to find high power density server rooms in China so the deployment is definitely not an easy task.

Thanks for the update! 

Friedcat for president!

Can you back up the "hundreds of TH a month" statement please? Bizarre they're operating 50 if so.

People so easily forget about his earlier post re: AM hashing at 800-1000TH by the end of the year.  Even with upcoming new entrants into the space, that's plenty to stay comfortably positioned.

great to hear from you friedcat, thanks for the update, this is exactly what I wanted to hear! I'm happy that I held on to all of my shares and I plan to do so in the future...

Vycid, He's alive.. I thought he got fried

Have you looked at their financials? They have an assembly infrastructure which is enormous and can clearly handle hundreds of terahashes of manufacturing a month. And they have more than 50TH, they just haven't deployed it and are selling it instead apparently.

The only way your idea could be accurate is if friedcat is lying, which could effectively be considered the end of argument.

I am pleased by the opportunity for a real discussion.

Exactly -- 0.35% of the outstanding shares in daily volume, and everything goes to shit. This market is propped up by the paper-thin support of irrational buyers.

Do you think that if someone sold 0.35% of Shell Oil or Dow Chemical or similar that it would crash the price? No. Those companies are worth quite a bit even bankrupt. They own chemical plants and refineries and shipping networks. More importantly they have decades of consistent profit, so you can expect to recoup your investment. Money would flow in because it represents profit with nearly zero risk.

AM is profoundly uncertain. It owns little of value (50 TH primarily). As I've detailed before, the very potential for profit in the mining sector will be demolished by competition via a "tragedy of the commons" scenario. The mined BTC will largely be gobbled up by electricity costs. Even if AM maintains a significant hashrate percentage their profits will still plummet. We saw this happen with GPUs. Similarly AM's margins for hardware sales are based on the (former) lack of credible competition.

All this thing needs is a push. The whales know it. None of them want to be the one to destroy the market, but they want to be the last one out even less.

here's the most important piece of that update:

How do you know it isn't different people?  How do we know it isn't you?  How many shares are exchanged during those manipulations?

It's hardly a "whale" if it's a few dozen shares.

what security does have the volume to support massive liquidation?  None of them.  Not even BTC itself on most exchanges.  That does not mean the value of the company is any less, it means that not many orders are posted on the exchange.  Pass-through shares are always going to be like that because they represent a very small part of the company.  

Look at how many shares are on BTCT: ~26K.  That's just 6.5% of the shares.  And out of those 26K, how many shares changed hands today? ~1400.  So, like 0.35%.  That's a very small sample.

Interesting, very interesting....

Anyone know patent law well enough on ASIC chip set, size, and application?

Woot Friedcat
I knew you were due for a post sooner or later thanks for posting 

Thanks for the update! That'll start the rally for the coming fall!

He's alive.. I thought he got fried