Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 940. (Read 3917058 times)

I'll offer a counterpoint. As long as the share price of AM hasn't achieved its full share price potential, reinvesting dividends is a great use for the dividends. The more advertising we do, the less likely we'll be able to reinvest at a good price.

-helixone

It is kind of funny that the fanbase aka us forum members are the ones who do the advertising 
Just proves how awesome it is

^  Threads can be created on hotstockmarket, investorsvillage, investorshub, etc

You know that's very interesting because I was wondering the same thing myself, only because I believe ASICMINER is "hiding its light under a bushel" i.e. not being publicised.

I had been on bitcointalk for several months and the only mining company I ever heard about was BFL ... BFL this, BFL that. OK, I have had dug properly into the right place I would have come across ASICMINER, but it wasn't until I said to myself "its time to put my BTC to work instead of just sitting on them" I came across this ASICMINER mega-thread, read it, and decided very quickly to invest (@ 2.5)

My point?
     *) ASICMINER themselves are as quiet as mouse.
     *) ASICMINER has no website (as many people pointed out, a first for such a big company)
     *) ASICMINER has rarely advertised at bitcointalk (only I believe when they had direct hardware to sell to public)

So I believe awareness is a key factor that has held share price down for so long. Bitcoins "best kept secret" if you will. Although the amazing value has now gone, I believe its still a good way for people to put some bitcoins to work in terms of risk / reward.

What can shareholders / ASICMINER do to boost interest?

1) Get involved in discussions on bitcointalk about mining i.e. don't just sit here following one thread, go out and contribute to other threads that talk about mining. I don't mean spam. I mean actually contribute, because a lot of people don't know about ASICMINER at all, just BFL and then maybe Avalon. Personally I use a twitter feed to get new topics from bitcointalk but there are lots of ways to find relevant topics to contribute to.

2) About the website thing - just my mate's experience .... but he's a very savvy Internet person. He google'd ASICMINER and asicminer.co comes up number 1. He *automatically* assumed this was ASICMINER's website. I really had to persuade him that ASICMINER has no website and the site he found was a forum member's site. And I'm definitely not having a go at whoever owns asicminer.co, merely pointing out that ASICMINER have left a vacuum due to not having a site. I argued last week that ASICMINER didn't need a site, but .... if we are talking about "spreading the word" and giving people confidence to invest in ASICMINER, I'd definitely be happy to beat up my own argument  

3) I'm sure ASICMINER will advertise hardware again *but* honestly, they could run a very simple ad at *any time* showing growth of shares, how much they have made shareholders, and where to buy shares. Or even the guys that run the passthrough shares could do this.

4) If anyone knows people that write articles online, write about the amazing success story of ASICMINER - bitcoin is an easy sell for a topic at the moment, this would be a neat angle on the whole bitcoin scene.

"The bitcoin company that went from nothing to $100M in under a year without a website" )

Summary: I believe ASICMINER (for good reasons, not bad) has been very publicity shy to date, and again for good reasons, so have the shareholders.
There *will* be much more mining competition in the next 12 months, its been a very lucrative business, competition is inevitable, so I think now is the time to get out and start spreading the word about ASICMINER and how amazingly its performed. But yeah, most of it falls pretty flat unless ASICMINER is on board, does a website etc.

In 5 years time we may all be chained to plows cutting furrows in state-owned ethanol fields to provide fuel for the military campaigns of our respective governments in the resource wars.

Hard to say what a share of ASICminer will be worth in 1 week, to say nothing of the value in 5 years.

It is certainly doing just fine today though.

I'd be very, very cautious about 5 year projections. Right now ASICMiner is one of very few companies with chips, but within a couple years there will almost certainly be several companies with 22 nm chips. It's even possible that Avalon, whose primary objective is protecting the blockchain, will sell those chips for the cost of manufacture, making ASICMiner unable to turn a profit on hardware sales because of undercutting by grassroots, open-source group buys similar to those we're seeing for 110 nm right now.

At that point ASICMiner's competitive advantage will be gone, and their margins will be much thinner.

Here's my optimistic scenario for AM in 5 years time.

Assumptions:

The $ per BTC keeps rising slowly but surely. Reaches about $500 in 2018
Bitcoin transaction volume doubles roughly every 18 months, increasing over 5 years to 10 times 2013 levels.
AM manages to hang on to about 10% of the global hashrate and continues to sell mining hardware to others albeit at a much reduced profit.
The block reward has halved but the block size limit has increased from 1MB to 5MB.
Average transaction fees per block is up to 10 BTC.

So in this case AM will make about 100,000 BTC in 2018. That's .25 dividends per share. Share price might be around 10x or perhaps BTC 2.5 each.

If AM manages 20% global hash rate and average fees per block reaches 20 BTC that makes dividends of 0.65 per share (share price perhaps BTC 6.5 each)

Thoughts?

You used the words "simplistic model" in conjunction with "model" limitations, specific scenario probabilities, and valuation ranges.

So no, it was not clear at all that it came out of your ass. I typically expect methodology where I see those things (as opposed to the pure guesswork of "it's going up!" or "it's going down!").

The difference between the words "estimate" and "arbitrary", as far as I am concerned, is that an estimate involves methodology. I believe the definitions you provided support this interpretation ('calculate' or 'judge' vs 'chance', 'whim', or 'impulse').

Please reread what I wrote, before throwing accusations. Just in case you don't have a dictionary handy:

arbitrarily - Determined by chance, whim, or impulse, and not by necessity, reason, or principle
estimate - Roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of.

To be clear, I, like pretty much everyone who offers an opinion on AM's valuation, am just guessing. And I believe I made that fairly clear.

-helixone

Odds are they would lose value to local currency, as they lose liquidity.  That is not a given written in stone, just my view of a likely outcome.  If government approved fiat was to lose acceptance as stable, BTC may be highly desired and increased demand might make it more valuable, but in some economic crisis gold/silver would be my guess as the goto store of wealth before BTC.

  Well obvious that if you live in USA that is the liquidity that concerns yourself..An Italian would not need USD nor would an AUSSIE.    I have seen a few countries tighten the liquidity of BTC to their native 'coin'     This brings a really interesting twist or wildcard to the game.   If these coins are driven underground do they gain value rather then lose value ?

What else can we do to help ASICMiner grow?

Things that are floating in my mind:
    *) Investing more;
    *) Opening exchanges that make AM shares more accessible;
    *) Reporting the weekly dividend;
    *) Answering questions from new investors;
    *) Posting pictures and words reflecting our euphoria;
    *) Asking our friends to join the club (be very careful with this);
    *) Being quiet;
    ...

I don't want my div address to be posted on Bitcointalk.org. I would only share it in confidence via PM.

Even there were only 429 shareholder addresses last time I checked in the publicized spreadsheet it's more anonymous than posting it on the forum with my username attached to it.

Can any of you point me to a financial statement you base your valuations on?
Thank you.

Do you have any methodology for producing those percentage probabilities? What is the time window? Or are you just guessing and passing it off as a mathematical model?

Wouldn't mind that... I have an order in to buy some more ;-).

Their surprise was only caused by their ignorance and inability to understand what was clearly specified in the contract.

For myself , I only invested some potion of my asset into BTC, I like to joint this revolution concept..
I do not willing to trade out my BTC to USD at anytime...thuse I am ignored the price fluctuation of BTC..
I bought all my BTC around 140 USD...it looks like no way to be sell it without loss in near future, but I am glad I invested my BTC in AM, because increase of AM's price compensating all lose caused by BTC price decrease.

There is NO guarantee on any of these investments that you can sell it anytime for what price you purchased at. AM and PMBs are very different, but take a look at TAT.VM - if any of those holders thought they'd be able to get out at .007, they got a nasty surprise after about a week.

if you want to convert it to USD.