Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 981. (Read 3917568 times)

Here's why I think we're headed to 3.5:

1) The most important reason is during the first BTC crash to 100, many people sold AM down to 2.25 so they could get their BTC out into fiat. Many people (some new) were waiting for just that opportunity. AM quickly recovered even with BTC below 100. I think the reason we have seen it rally now is being some people have regret that decision and have been making their way back in. I figure a lot are still holding fiat because BTC is bearish and are waiting for a bottom below the 90s. If BTC recovers, and that's an if, then these people will dive back into AM.
2) I see being are that the walls are broken down at 2.5, giving us a solid base of new comers at 2.5, and 3.0 isn't quite profitable enough to cause much selling off (0.5 profit when you're expecting more, you hold).
3) The way AM is going, even with an average dividend of 0.02 (we've been seeing 0.03+ recently), then the yearly earning on 1 share at 3.5 BTC is 1.04 BTC, which is 29.7% APR. I think 25-30% APR is the right amount of interest for a people to get in on a venture like this.
4) AM is advertising, bringing in people who hadn't considered or overlooked AM for a while (as shown by recent posts).
5) AM CEO, friedcat, is doing everything right, and following through. Under-promising and over-delivering.
6) Higher hashrate per share.

Note: if AM sold out of blades already, and I suspect may have utilized them to match incoming hashrate (BFL), then the dividend may be around 0.02. Based on the yearly average that is still damn fine, but lower than last week. Since people are barely selling and realize the value of AM now, I don't suspect a sell-off just because of a dividend that's smaller but still significant. 

I'm all in on AM, so that makes it easy for me to assess an opinion in this way.

Um... bitcoin is the very definition of value out of thin air. It can't be used for ANYTHING else other than trade. It can't be used in manufacturing like gold/silver/etc, it can't be made into jewelry like diamonds... it's a straight up thin air value placeholder. The original comparison was valid, and it's perfectly OK for market cap to be greater than available currency, because market cap represents the sum of what investors were willing to value shares (note - this is not the same as paying for shares, since not all shares were purchased at today's prices) up through today for returns in the future. Even if we suddenly rewrote the rules and made it so that mining never generated another bitcoin today, the companies that continue to provide profit to investors will trade at more than the profit they generate because investors see the value in future returns. See: P/E ratios. The economic mechanisms at work in open markets still work with bitcoin the same as fiat, and that's OK - the main difference between fiat and bitcoin is that fiat can be printed to the extent that a single unit can be practically worthless (inflationary) while bitcoin cannot, but it can be lost (deflationary).

Stop reminding those of use who were waiting for $300 to sell.   

The era of peta H/s is approaching.

Indeed! I sit corrected.

It was once $266.

If the current difficulty increase trend holds true until September, ASICMINER will need 519% more hashing power than they have today to maintain the current 24%. In other words, they'll need to increase their hashing power from 33.13 th/s to 171.94 th/s.

Whoops -- math was wrong. I should say October rather than September.

Edit #2 -- and three months after that, it will require 17 times today's hashing power to maintain the same ratio.  2.281 ph/s

With respect, I think your assertion that a mining asset's value should correlate to its share of the network multiplied by the market cap of Bitcoin is wrong. The long term value from mining will be income from processing transactions. If the volume of transactions per unit of time doubled and the value of fees per unit of time doubled that would double the return from mining (making a mining asset twice as valuable). However the number of Bitcoins in circulation wouldn't change.

They aim for about 280TH by September. If that equates to 24% of the network by then is a different question. Given the recent influx of new Asic projects it might be much less than that. If they all pull an BFL however, well, good for Asicminer Interesting times, let's see what happens!

Consider my statement suitably modified. People are selling because they think the price will fall.

they plan on adding X hundred terahashes, thats all I currently know

That's assuming Asicminer being able to keep 24% of the network hashrate until all BTC are mined... which is still a fairly long way to go.

Now Asicminer had a great headstart being the only ASIC project besides Avalon to actually deliver. And I'm positive that they will keep a significant portion of hashpower. But there are a lot of Asic projects scheduled for the next few months, heck even BFL seems to slowly get their shit together. Be careful with your assumptions is all that I'm saying.

I did consider that, I consider their contribution to the hashrate of the network is still valued greater

ASICMINER never said they plan to grab 33-40% of the network, afaik.

My guess is that their goal is to maintain the equivalent of < 50% of the network if you were to remove the largest mining pool.

 i think you'll be closer than you think. but who knows right....your 1st and 3rd point are somewhat contradictory though

Not sure why you think AM should be 24% of Bitcoin market cap, the coins that are already mined, are not owned by AM. Unless you think miners at any time, combined, should be worth 100% of Bitcoin marketcap, which doesn't make any sense.

AM's potential profits comes from the coins that are not yet mined, and also selling hardware. These two are actually the same thing, by selling hardware, AM is creating competition to itself. Realistically, we can assume AM will maintain, on average, 20% of network for at least a few years, and then who knows what happens, a few competitors are developing sub 50nm process, which will hugely beat AM's hardware(though AM is also looking to do this in the near future).

thanks for posting this.   

1) BTC3.3
2) BTC0.02994010 per share
3) profit???


Note: the above is made up out of the clear blue sky.

BTC/USD has never been that high, it was $256, for a moment, 2 months ago.

Because they watched BTC fall from $290 to $100 several weeks ago, and don't want to get caught holding the bag again.