Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 13. (Read 808847 times)

(auto-)connecting the dots...


squeezing each drop of those valuable words while waiting.

Hopefully a lot of the unprofitable miners will be shutting down their equipment and it will be easier for AM to get a bigger portion of the remaining hash rate.

No. I don't think so.
TSMC only accept fiat currency. Company Operation cost, HR salary and other costs all spend out by fiat mode. If the coin price continues to fall. FC have to take larger percentage of btc income to cover company's cost and we all shareholders get less. It's a very clear situation.

Speculation/speculators dont bother calculations ^^

How did you calculate the 2+ BTC per share?

wellllll
if btc price continues to fall and reaches a sane valuation, but AM preforms well despite this...we may see 2+ btc per share (which would be good for me, btc-wise)   

+1

And i would add that the only thing reassuring my confidence in AM and regarding btc price is that they did not rush into top tier expensive technology nodes, which may be foolish, if not doomish for the competitors.

We're in a transition phase. Historically there was no upside to being a bitcoin bear. Long speculation ruled as there weren't any mechanisms in place to short bitcoin.  Now there are two camps and the newly formed downward pressure will force bitcoin to adopt a more sane, sustainable market price.

I make no claims on knowing where that price will settle out only that it will take actual demand (growth) and not rampant speculation to sustain another price increase. 

We are in for a long boring winter with few buyers for mining equipment.  I see this causing AM to switch back to self mining on inexpensive efficient gen 4 chips in a slowly increasing/stagnant network.  With that will bring simple valuations for the share price as dividends will be predictable based on network hash-rate %.

I truly believe that our long wait for transparency is coming to an end.

I doubt that fc would be burning his own btc stash. That would be foolish.
1) A reasonable conjecture is to imagine a collusion of chinese miners doing so... the one who holds the breath longer under water wins the game.
Right now I bet that the US and European mining farms must be sweating like crazy.

If the prices are dumped to 100, many of them are gonna shut down or burn reserve funds like crazy (mining doesn't even cover the electric bill), while the Chinese won't get affected at all.
Why? Because some of them aren't even paying for electricity.

2) Another conjecture for the fall of the btc prices is that btc is a victim of its own success.
How so? Because there are too many merchants accepting bitcoins or processing it, but they don't keep those funds in bitcoins, they need fiat to operate and pay providers and employees, so they must dump their bitcoins to the market asap. The more I spend/sell bitcoins, the more the prices will fall.

3) And now my personal conjecture is: rich amateur people are playing with exchanges and they have no idea of what they are doing. They are following charts and attempting Technical Analysis because they think that is the holy grail of making money, and they get trapped into their own self-fulfilled prophecy... but they are too n00b to realize.
I think China is living their amateur time, they adopted it late, and they are making now the same mistakes we did in 2011. I am pretty sure that one of these three leading exchanges is following MtGox's path.

My bet: The fall of the prices will be spectacular, and its subsequent rise will be spectacular.

Can't remember your posts but not sure I agree with you on fc dumping btc, I'm pretty sure they just sell to a big buyer to fund new orders of chips miner pieces etc

Steve, just for the record, I've seen your posts here and there and I think we're vibing on the same exact theory.

Pls delete

I thought we all agreed that was an Exchange wallet addy.  There has been no reason (that I've seen) to think it is in any way related to AM.

looks like someone is still buying miners, most btc thats ever been sent to it was today edit:since late aug
https://blockchain.info/address/3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8

Pretty much goodwill has helped carried AM to this point with all the free advertising PR for it but it is diminishing over time
Progress is occurring smoothly but not for investors and the market is trading at that point now may as well call it the nadir where if nothing happens it just keeps dropping despite all the positive news.

So with you on that investors in a sense have waited long enough its time for some action.

If this company was anything but Asicminer, and didn't have the history of the 2013 glory days behind it, everyone would have already cut and run and its shares would be worth zero. You can only trade on goodwill accumulated in the distant past for so long before it just doesn't matter any more. AM needs to deliver real results now. Fanboys remembering how they used to get giant dividends over a year ago is not gonna prop up the stock price much longer.

There seems to be a lot of good news, but no confidence. 

29421 shares on HL.  12-14k last winter/spring.  How big are the ask walls going to be once things get rolling?

Looks like ~500 shares were transferred to havelock before the dumping of ~500 shares.

I've noticed each dump recently has been after hundreds of shares are transferred to havelock.

My guess would be it's an IPO shareholder looking to get out or manipulate the already thin market.

VERY thin book down to .01.  Manipulate away.  If the asks follow, i will help you mop them up 
I didn't expect this today.  Maybe tomorrow on no news, but not leading the first of the month, and a Wednesday to boot.  Could make for crazy fireworks, or just another day of no news... Normalcy bias leaves me leaning toward the no news again side.