ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 212.

stripykitteh

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Quote from: EskimoBob on July 02, 2013, 02:59:07 AM

I do not want to piss on your parade but you have to look at the BTC price an put it in to context.
BTC has lost about 33.7% over the last 30 days. So, 4.49 today is like 2.98 a month ago

Still, the gain is nice.

So, if you buy your BTC today and dump it on AM, you are not left that far behind. Question is, will AM take a nose dive if BTC price recovers?
At the same time, are there any fundamental reasons for BTC to recover in short term? Diff is not a fundamental reason because ASIC's are so much more efficient mining while fear of not getting your investment back has probably a huge role in recent BTC sell offs.

There's no parade so I don't know where your piss is going. If you read my post carefully you will see I wasn't praising the increase. I wouldn't mind if AM went under 3 so my dividends can buy more. I find the current price a little frustrating.

freedomno1

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Quote from: stripykitteh on July 02, 2013, 01:21:47 AM

Quote from: VJain on July 02, 2013, 12:59:31 AM

Quote from: stripykitteh on July 02, 2013, 12:42:03 AM

Looks like Jutarul's wall is gone. Price is around 4.6BTC.

Seems like there's 250~ or so left still

I guess if you don't have 90BTC to spare it's the market or nothing.

Well Been a while since I've done this but does the less than 90 Bit a favor

Btct
PT
6   ฿ 0.045999
22   ฿ 0.046
56   ฿ 0.0468
500   ฿ 0.0469
Whole
7   ฿ 4.599998
13   ฿ 4.6
1   ฿ 4.609996

Bitfunder
PT 1/100
1,300   ฿0.04640
99   ฿0.04650
Whole
2   ฿4.58890
1   ฿4.5890

Havelock
PT 1/100
2013-07-02 02:55:23
400/400   ฿0.04444900   ฿17.7796
2013-07-02 02:54:12
853/853   ฿0.04445000   ฿37.9159
2013-07-02 02:45:35
50/50   ฿0.04445400   ฿2.2227
2013-07-02 01:35:38
446/446   ฿0.04447899   ฿19.8376
2013-07-02 01:34:25
303/303   ฿0.04449190   ฿13.4810
2013-07-02 01:23:40
100/100   ฿0.04498765   ฿4.4988

About 100 BTC worth of shares cheaper than 4.5 rather go fetch them before that wall breaks Cheesy

Downwards bids also lol
Tks Wink

EskimoBob

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I do not want to piss on your parade but you have to look at the BTC price an put it in to context.
BTC has lost about 33.7% over the last 30 days. So, 4.49 today is like 2.98 a month ago

Still, the gain is nice.

So, if you buy your BTC today and dump it on AM, you are not left that far behind. Question is, will AM take a nose dive if BTC price recovers?
At the same time, are there any fundamental reasons for BTC to recover in short term? Diff is not a fundamental reason because ASIC's are so much more efficient mining while fear of not getting your investment back has probably a huge role in recent BTC sell offs.

stripykitteh

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Quote from: VJain on July 02, 2013, 12:59:31 AM

Quote from: stripykitteh on July 02, 2013, 12:42:03 AM

Looks like Jutarul's wall is gone. Price is around 4.6BTC.

Seems like there's 250~ or so left still

I guess if you don't have 90BTC to spare it's the market or nothing.

velacreations

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the market got bored, they are just gonna ignore the sell wall...

VJain

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Quote from: stripykitteh on July 02, 2013, 12:42:03 AM

Looks like Jutarul's wall is gone. Price is around 4.6BTC.

Seems like there's 250~ or so left still

stripykitteh

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Looks like Jutarul's wall is gone. Price is around 4.6BTC.

freedomno1

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Well I guess that could explain the mtgox drop
Best of luck trying to short that the 4.5 Wall is breaking today Wink

Well at least in my time zone by prediction UTI server 3:45:16 AM lol so within 20 hours and 44 mins XD Using July 2

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247803.0;topicseen

helixone

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Quote from: Pierre on July 01, 2013, 11:33:15 PM

Quote from: helixone on July 01, 2013, 11:29:12 PM

Quote from: nrd525 on July 01, 2013, 11:18:05 PM

It is over-valued by at least a factor of two. Where can I short?

At the moment none of the exchanges offer margin or shorting, so you'd have to convince someone to lend you the shares OTC.

BTC-TC has call and put options

Well options are very different than shorting. Yes you can make bets that price will go down, but the difference with an actual short is that you are putting your money where your mouth is and selling the shares on the exchanges. In other words, shorting will directly impact the trading prices.

My guess though to actually squeeze the market to a point of inducing a temporary panic, you'd have to borrow a full board seat of 5000 shares and do the short when there is some bad news you could pin the downward price movement on. IE: You're gonna need to convince other people that the temporary price movement is real, and induce people to panic sell, so you can close the position at a lower price than you sold.

Good luck with that! (You are likely to get killed trying to fight this trend.)

-helixone

freedomno1

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Vycid buys puts if people are interested so make sure to offer above those prices
Anyways as everyone keeps saying value depends but no short market
Only puts and calls atm

Pierre

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Quote from: helixone on July 01, 2013, 11:29:12 PM

Quote from: nrd525 on July 01, 2013, 11:18:05 PM

It is over-valued by at least a factor of two. Where can I short?

At the moment none of the exchanges offer margin or shorting, so you'd have to convince someone to lend you the shares OTC.

BTC-TC has call and put options

helixone

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Quote from: nrd525 on July 01, 2013, 11:18:05 PM

It is over-valued by at least a factor of two. Where can I short?

At the moment none of the exchanges offer margin or shorting, so you'd have to convince someone to lend you the shares OTC. (And it probably wouldn't be cheap, you'd have to pay the divs out of pocket and interest to boot.) Guessing you'd also probably have to put enough btc to cover at least 1.5-2 times the current value of the shares in escrow. (With John K or some other trusted party).

Post an offer, perhaps someone will bite. (But be very careful, I think your math is flawed, and you have deeply underestimated the value of AM shares.)

-helixone

P.S. - I'd even consider lending you shares, if I wasn't concerned about the counterparty risk of not getting the shares back, when your bet fails.

Pierre

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Quote from: nrd525 on July 01, 2013, 11:18:05 PM

Where can I short?

Right here https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT

nrd525

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It is over-valued by at least a factor of two. Where can I short?

velacreations

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well, no one is even talking about the new blade designs, the new mini blades, or the USB sales, either, all of which are going to greatly increase the dividends int he coming weeks.

SoylentCreek

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Quote from: velacreations on July 01, 2013, 05:15:05 PM

Quote from: nubbins on July 01, 2013, 03:30:10 PM

Comments like that were being made about the $250 bitcoin not long ago. We all knew it'd be $1000 after the public caught on Sad

comments like that were being made when AM was passing 1 btc...

Sure, but I have to wonder how many of the people buying in are the ones thinking that AM is planning on cranking out a petahash by the end of the year. I think once many of them realize that they were referring to the total network hashrate, many of the newcomers will start jumping ship. I don't think that we are necessarily "in a bubble" as of yet, but I do think that we are primed for a flash crash. There are plenty of people who want to collect as many shares as possible for when the dividend goes live tomorrow.

nubbins

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