Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 218. (Read 808905 times)
here comes the bear trap, exact same pattern as when we went past 3, hits around 4.4, then going to drop close to 4.1, then you'll see it over 4.5 tomorrow morning.
It's going parabolic. AM's value didn't go up 40% in 2 days, so why should the share price be. This is a bubble.
Although I already posted this in the main thread, I'd like commentary on this post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2550665 (And please consider it a counter post to your bubble theory).
-helixone
I think this last rise was due to the Chinese getting on board with AM.
That powerpoint was suggesting that AM is an excellent investment opportunity...
So, lots of new BTC in AM yesterday. Expect it to continue through dividend day.
That powerpoint was suggesting that AM is an excellent investment opportunity...
So, lots of new BTC in AM yesterday. Expect it to continue through dividend day.
The price has risen in my opinion due to more exposure to the bitcoin community and friedcat delivering on his promises. 6 months ago, very few people knew about or followed ASICMINER. Today, a much larger group has at least heard about ASICMINER. Maybe even bought shares or ASICMINER hardware.
It reminds me of this interesting analysis from the pre-bubblepop era by a Reddit user: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1aq5i1/bitcoin_and_exponential_growth/c8zpcu0
For the lazy:
"Bitcoin seems to go through phases of exponential growth, which probably means that it spreads virally through a new class of user before saturating its presence in that group [...]
For those that don't know, exponential expansion indicates that, on average, every entity participating in some network is bringing in another entity in some fixed time. It could be rabbits breeding, or cells dividing in a foetus. From 1 cell or rabbit, you get two. From 2, you get 4. From 4, 8. And so on. Each doubling occurs in the same time."
It would seem as if AM's adoption dynamics are similar.
I'm surprised that you people haven't learned your lesson with bubbles. A 4.4 BTC per share valuation equals about 29Mhash/ Bitcoin.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1c698g/ive_been_a_trader_for_over_15_years_and_i_never/
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1c698g/ive_been_a_trader_for_over_15_years_and_i_never/
hmmm, another troll wanting cheap shares...
The price has risen in my opinion due to more exposure to the bitcoin community and friedcat delivering on his promises. 6 months ago, very few people knew about or followed ASICMINER. Today, a much larger group has at least heard about ASICMINER. Maybe even bought shares or ASICMINER hardware.
It's going parabolic. AM's value didn't go up 40% in 2 days, so why should the share price be. This is a bubble.
imo we need more/\volatility so promoters can dump shares make money and go on an long\/vacation..thanks
Well, with so far nothing but good news and based on the next div being good I can see it above 5.
I can't see any reason to sell, can you?
I'm not going to shit my pants and jump out just because it went up quickly...it may slip back a bit between now and div day but it always does.
Too much good news pending and long positioned owners for it to drop significantly in the near future.
It would take an atom bomb of bad news to turn it into an AMC type disaster...
I can't see any reason to sell, can you?
I'm not going to shit my pants and jump out just because it went up quickly...it may slip back a bit between now and div day but it always does.
Too much good news pending and long positioned owners for it to drop significantly in the near future.
It would take an atom bomb of bad news to turn it into an AMC type disaster...
Jump out, probably not. Sell, yes. I've tripled my investment in under 2 months.
The worst that happens is you lock in a fat profit. Just make sure to keep some, in case things
agreed/\smart traders flip out %5O let the free shares ride wait for BTC\/reboot it's how we do it..thanks
calling of bubbles is the biggest sham in trading, why?
it keeps going up violently you are correct
if it pops and goes down you are correct,
The world has also never seen a thing like Bitcoin BTCBTC
it keeps going up violently you are correct
if it pops and goes down you are correct,
The world has also never seen a thing like Bitcoin BTCBTC
I'm surprised that you people haven't learned your lesson with bubbles. A 4.4 BTC per share valuation equals about 29Mhash/ Bitcoin.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1c698g/ive_been_a_trader_for_over_15_years_and_i_never/
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1c698g/ive_been_a_trader_for_over_15_years_and_i_never/
It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.
+1until somebody sells.
although so far its seemed like people have tolerated selling
It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.
+1
It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.
+1It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.
+1 
got another jaw drop after woke up. 4.2 
Ok, I will do the heavy math for you
21.000.000 btc - 11.000.000 btc = 10 more millions to mine. (total coins minus already mined coins).
10.000.000 btc / 400.000 pcs = 25 BTC per share (if we mine 100% of it).
So, number of coins yet to be mined per share is:
2.5 btc if we maintain 10%
6.25 btc if we maintain 25%
12.50 btc if we hit 50%
25 btc if we somehow hit 100%
+ profit from hardware and technology
+ transaction fees
+ namecoin sales
I also believe that data center with cheap power will be worth something eventually.
at this price, AM has to maintain only 16.8% which already exceeded, not counting other incomes. Reasonable price, a bit undervalue, I guess.
Ok, I will do the heavy math for you
21.000.000 btc - 11.000.000 btc = 10 more millions to mine. (total coins minus already mined coins).
10.000.000 btc / 400.000 pcs = 25 BTC per share (if we mine 100% of it).
So, number of coins yet to be mined per share is:
2.5 btc if we maintain 10%
6.25 btc if we maintain 25%
12.50 btc if we hit 50%
25 btc if we somehow hit 100%
+ profit from hardware and technology
+ transaction fees
+ namecoin sales
I also believe that data center with cheap power will be worth something eventually.
at this price, AM has to maintain only 16.8% which already exceeded, not counting other incomes. Reasonable price, a bit undervalue, I guess.
News of the production of 1000 TH/s (competition killer), the expected higher dividend this week, and the introduction of a lot of new money from China is what is driving this price up.
The value of AM depends a lot on the dividends. If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably. Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.
At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc
I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.
The value of AM depends a lot on the dividends. If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably. Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.
At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc
I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.
It's going parabolic. AM's value didn't go up 40% in 2 days, so why should the share price be. This is a bubble.
This
More like 20% in 2 days. So far at least...
It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.
It's going parabolic. AM's value didn't go up 40% in 2 days, so why should the share price be. This is a bubble.
This
It's going parabolic. AM's value didn't go up 40% in 2 days, so why should the share price be. This is a bubble.
Well, with so far nothing but good news and based on the next div being good I can see it above 5.
I can't see any reason to sell, can you?
I'm not going to shit my pants and jump out just because it went up quickly...it may slip back a bit between now and div day but it always does.
Too much good news pending and long positioned owners for it to drop significantly in the near future.
It would take an atom bomb of bad news to turn it into an AMC type disaster...
I can't see any reason to sell, can you?
I'm not going to shit my pants and jump out just because it went up quickly...it may slip back a bit between now and div day but it always does.
Too much good news pending and long positioned owners for it to drop significantly in the near future.
It would take an atom bomb of bad news to turn it into an AMC type disaster...
Jump out, probably not. Sell, yes. I've tripled my investment in under 2 months.
The worst that happens is you lock in a fat profit. Just make sure to keep some, in case things
Jump to: