Well, with so far nothing but good news and based on the next div being good I can see it above 5.
I can't see any reason to sell, can you?
I'm not going to shit my pants and jump out just because it went up quickly...it may slip back a bit between now and div day but it always does.
Too much good news pending and long positioned owners for it to drop significantly in the near future.
It would take an atom bomb of bad news to turn it into an AMC type disaster...
Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 219. (Read 808847 times)
we hit 3.51 last night, I can see passing 3.7 before dividend day!
hmmm, I was right, once again. I guess I need to change this prediction.
4 btc by Weds, folks.
DAMN! Ok, will we hit 4.5? I am betting yes.
How high will this go before dividends? 5 btc?
Of course in any analysis such as this it comes down to the underlying assumptions.
If AM maintains a higher than 20% share of total hashrate, or sells more hardware than initially thought (and keeps the momentum going), or goes into a new venture, or any combination of those (plus many other possible scenarios) then my valuation will no longer be accurate.
My only concern if it would be prudent to price these factors in, at this stage when it hasn't been demonstrated that there is a reasonably certainty of any of those things actually happening.
I feel that on reasonable, conservative estimates, AM is approaching full valuation so potential buyers should just spend a bit more time thinking it through before placing a large order
If AM maintains a higher than 20% share of total hashrate, or sells more hardware than initially thought (and keeps the momentum going), or goes into a new venture, or any combination of those (plus many other possible scenarios) then my valuation will no longer be accurate.
My only concern if it would be prudent to price these factors in, at this stage when it hasn't been demonstrated that there is a reasonably certainty of any of those things actually happening.
I feel that on reasonable, conservative estimates, AM is approaching full valuation so potential buyers should just spend a bit more time thinking it through before placing a large order
Don't know if anyone has done this before but based on current 3600 coins mined per day, and 400,000 total AM shares.
If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue
Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189
And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)
I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained
So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.
I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate.
Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield) will be between 3.46 (very conservative) - 5.2 (very bullish).
Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.
I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.
If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue
Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189
And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)
I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained
So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.
I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate.
Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield) will be between 3.46 (very conservative) - 5.2 (very bullish).
Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.
I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.
Couldn't AM mine using a pool after they hit the 40% for solo-mining?
Anyways, selling hardware is even better than mining. You get the money when you sell it instead of waiting for the coins to be mined. We know the demand is there.
And as people trust Friedcat more and more, they'll be happy with a smaller annual yield than 25%. He's already given back far more than they received at the IPO, so honesty isn't in question at this point, and neither is competence.
And all this is assuming AM just does what it's doing now but gets better at it. I'm sure if Friedcat comes up against a wall where there's just no way to make much more money out of mining hardware, he'll just pull something else out of the hat.
Oh, and more than 3600 coins on average are mined a day, because the hashrate is increasing fast, but difficulty adjusts only every 2 weeks.
Based on last dividend of 0.019 we're looking at about 24% yield at a price of $4. Buyers, please stop here, ASICminer is almost fully valued (IMO).
If you're bullish about future earnings being consistently at or around 0.03 I suppose one could keep buying up till about $5.3. But I personally think this is risky.
If you're bullish about future earnings being consistently at or around 0.03 I suppose one could keep buying up till about $5.3. But I personally think this is risky.
Dividends have been roughly growing for a year. Thinking that as soon as the average reaches 0.03 they'll permanently flatten out at that is bearish, not bullish.
AM PT's on Bitfunder, divs are in 
BTC4.18 hit
BTC4.18 hit
Don't know if anyone has done this before but based on current 3600 coins mined per day, and 400,000 total AM shares.
If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue
Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189
And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)
I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained
So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.
I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate: based on mining revenue accounting for two thirds of the dividend and hardware sales accounting for the remaining third.
Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield, and dividends between 0.02-0.025 on average, in perpetuity) will be between:
BTC3.46 (very conservative, 0.02 assumed dividend with 30% yield required)
and
BTC5.2 (very bullish, 0.03 assumed dividend with 25% yield required).
Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.
I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.
If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue
Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189
And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)
I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained
So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.
I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate: based on mining revenue accounting for two thirds of the dividend and hardware sales accounting for the remaining third.
Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield, and dividends between 0.02-0.025 on average, in perpetuity) will be between:
BTC3.46 (very conservative, 0.02 assumed dividend with 30% yield required)
and
BTC5.2 (very bullish, 0.03 assumed dividend with 25% yield required).
Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.
I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.
There aren't many shares to buy until 4.5, it's quite possible to reach that soon.
I am reevaluating my ASICMINER positions. I think it will jump to 5 very soon but I am not confident with further grow. I think more and more people are using ASICMINER-PT as a hedge against falling Bitcoin. You sell your Bitcoins or buy ASICMINER-PT. Mayhem would be if Bitcoin gradually falls to $30 and meanwhile strong competition for ASICMINER would emerge.
1 more share before hitting $4 on BTC-TC. Based on last dividend of 0.019 we're looking at about 24% yield at a price of $4. Buyers, please stop here, ASICminer is almost fully valued (IMO).
Average of last 5 is higher than 0.019
Given that the last 2 were 0.019 and 0.018 respectively I personally feel the conservatism of using 0.019 is more appropriate
If AM delivers 0.03 for the next couple weeks I'd be glad to revise my valuation though
Edit: Just saw last done price @ 4BTC. Congrats all ASICMINER-PT owners
1 more share before hitting $4 on BTC-TC. Based on last dividend of 0.019 we're looking at about 24% yield at a price of $4. Buyers, please stop here, ASICminer is almost fully valued (IMO).
Average of last 5 is higher than 0.019
1 more share before hitting $4 on BTC-TC. Based on last dividend of 0.019 we're looking at about 24% yield at a price of $4. Buyers, please stop here, ASICminer is almost fully valued (IMO).
If you're bullish about future earnings being consistently at or around 0.03 I suppose one could keep buying up till about $5.3. But I personally think this is risky.
In my not so scientific opinion we are in bubble territory at or around $4.50. Thankfully there is a big ask wall at that price, I hope the sellers don't pull them as the price inches higher
If you're bullish about future earnings being consistently at or around 0.03 I suppose one could keep buying up till about $5.3. But I personally think this is risky.
In my not so scientific opinion we are in bubble territory at or around $4.50. Thankfully there is a big ask wall at that price, I hope the sellers don't pull them as the price inches higher
If for whatever reason all cryptos became worthless tomorrow, your shares still have value because AM still has lots of fiat & sellable assets
Sellable assets such as... bitcoin miners?
If for whatever reason all cryptos became worthless tomorrow, your shares still have value because AM still has lots of fiat & sellable assets
Sellable assets such as... bitcoin miners?
TAT.ASICminer at BTC0.045 on BitFunder...
3.999999 
I think people are starting to figure out that investing in ASICMiner is a good hedge against BTC falling against the dollar.
I predict the price will continue to ascend to new heights as more people figure this out.
I predict the price will continue to ascend to new heights as more people figure this out.
It's even a hedge against BTC falling to zero.
If for whatever reason all cryptos became worthless tomorrow, your shares still have value because AM still has lots of fiat & sellable assets and no debt. AM could either move onto something else and continue to pay dividends, or just liquidate and distribute to the shareholders.
Or, say Sunny King does something amazing next year and PPC goes to world domination, while bitcoin goes the way of MySpace and BetaMax. Friedcat just starts mining the new dominant coin.
There are other scenarios but you get the idea.
I think people are starting to figure out that investing in ASICMiner is a good hedge against BTC falling against the dollar.
I predict the price will continue to ascend to new heights as more people figure this out.
I predict the price will continue to ascend to new heights as more people figure this out.
Well the people who read the forums
Still wants a website sort of but then I'm scared I would never get a good deal again
But it is a great hedge considering the price dropping
I think people are starting to figure out that investing in ASICMiner is a good hedge against BTC falling against the dollar.
I predict the price will continue to ascend to new heights as more people figure this out.
I predict the price will continue to ascend to new heights as more people figure this out.
All this optimistic situation makes me want to drop my work, it's quite hard for $500/month, very nervous and tiring, feels like slavery...
Please think this through carefully. Things can happen very quickly with bitcoin, this goes both ways.
That said, if you hate your job, you definitely should start planning your exit strategy. You'll thank yourself later, but only if you don't end up homeless.
Life is boring. Kill someone.
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