This calculator is pretty good
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
it is using past data to estimate difficulty and plot profit. Currently its 43% increase for last 30 days
Topic: ASICs are Over priced (Read 5022 times)
big players much rather mine coins than buy them since they can avoid the money trail
Having an IM4 (IMA, C88) document generated by customs when importing ASIC equipment is much more of smoking gun
you are acting like miners are contraband.. not yet at least
Then stop complaining. I had £12 in my bank account. Was bored, started my own £1M company at 13. Do something about it other than complain. In either case, why do we have to hear the QQ?
Quote
Paying for college: 15UhE4x7d1hD2o2YKCcdddzuhymsTKdeuz
Ah internet...
In other news, ASICs are retardedly priced right now, but I blame the bitcoin community more than the manufacturers. ASICMiner is a perfect example, they publicly announced that pricing would be based on the auction results, and more or less true to their word, they were. The first batch auctioned for ~75BTC (more than a blade will probably ever make in its lifetime), Second batch went for 66 or so (see above). Third batch was priced-in at 50BTC and sold out the same day I believe? With a backlog of 140orders on top of their offering.
The third batch may or may not break-even or produce a tiny amount of profit, yet demand for them is so high it is as though they were batch 1 avalons (the price people are paying for a blade is roughly equivalent to what people are paying for batch 2 in-hand avalons, so don't try to say "oh but they ship now!").
So again, the community is at fault, too much capital, not enough sense. C'est la vie.
People shilled the heck out of those auctions
USB miners are probably better examples as they are also ridiculously priced but loads of them are sold too.
big players much rather mine coins than buy them since they can avoid the money trail
Having an IM4 (IMA, C88) document generated by customs when importing ASIC equipment is much more of smoking gun
There is a lot more than just ROI in this sport of kings
big players much rather mine coins than buy them since they can avoid the money trail
especially if they can use their current btc to get more miners
avoiding exchange fees, taxes, etc
with this in mind, even negative ROI still has its benefits
big players much rather mine coins than buy them since they can avoid the money trail
especially if they can use their current btc to get more miners
avoiding exchange fees, taxes, etc
with this in mind, even negative ROI still has its benefits
The prices are somewhat relative. The market rate is what it is, people were happy to pay for them, so I don't think they were too expensive. Think it is also more fair to just measure it from solely a Bitcoin cost perspective, not fiat.
When the 2nd gen ASICs come along, it'll be a much more level playing field, such more likely as it is with GPUs. More available, cheaper... In the 1st gen there are many more risks but the pay out is larger if it works out... judging from a price-performance comparison between GPUs and ASICs the numbers speak for themselves...much more efficient and cheaper.
Also worth mentioning is that a person currently is not only limited to buying their own larger ASIC, to benefit from this tech. They could alternatively invest in dividend paying mining operation stocks, such as asicminer and basic, to benefit from ASICs to whatever amount they want.
When the 2nd gen ASICs come along, it'll be a much more level playing field, such more likely as it is with GPUs. More available, cheaper... In the 1st gen there are many more risks but the pay out is larger if it works out... judging from a price-performance comparison between GPUs and ASICs the numbers speak for themselves...much more efficient and cheaper.
Also worth mentioning is that a person currently is not only limited to buying their own larger ASIC, to benefit from this tech. They could alternatively invest in dividend paying mining operation stocks, such as asicminer and basic, to benefit from ASICs to whatever amount they want.
What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.
1 Avalon batch 2 cost was 55 BTC for 66+ Gh/s.
Ok, Avalon are/where not delivered as fast as AsicMiner, but I'm looking at it for the long run !
50 BTC for 13Gh/s seems very expensive, well too expensive, from my point of view.
Well it's all about to change apparently; https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2344319
I really don't understand the complaint. I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.
If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising. Then your money is going toward increased hashing. I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own. Am I right?
If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising. Then your money is going toward increased hashing. I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own. Am I right?
Sorry to "intrude" but IMHO your missing the point. The network didn´t grow and prosper because of a few "investors" with enough money to take over a considerable amount of combined hashing power. As far as I know, one of the core principles of Bitcoin is the ability of as many participants as possible - the more the merrier. No trust issues because of the big big numbers of participants. The chance to earn new coins now and to earn from fees later. No centralized control. No centralized power over the currency.
When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
When participating with GPU - no problem. Anyone with a newer computer could participate without considerable cost.
ASICs are not only a completely new game, it´s completely new sport.
When buying shares from whoever, there is nevertheless a centralized huge hashing power beyond the control of many.
When buying ASICs now because of deep pockets of a few and profiting huge in the coming few month and "reinvesting" that money after massiv increase of difficulty bears the risk of centralizing instead of decentralizing.
A lot of people (and I assume the creators of Bitcoins) wanted a currency that depends NOT on the decisions of a few. You can call this "few" government, feds, Bundesbank or Oligipoly of rich ASIC "investors". Bitcoin is more than a network, more than a way to print your own money and more than a kindergarden of tech-freaks. If the community doesn´t respect the principles, Bitcoin will go down the road of any actual currency. I don't want a "FED" consisting of a handful of miners with hashing power no one with a computer can do anything about.
I trust a network build of thousands of family men with a computer a lot more than a network of elite ASICs.
No offense - just my two cents.
+OVER 9000!!!!
Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?
Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.
Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.
At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.
Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.
Purchased today, a blade would generate 64 in 52 weeks. And for every week earlier you purchased, its an additional 3 coins. Ie mine purchased 3-4 weeks ago = ~73 with frozen exchange rates. ROI for purchased today is about 27 weeks.
EDIT: Its also worth noting that the main ROI is actually from expected currency shifts. 52 weeks is a long, long time in btc terms.
At what rate of difficulty growth are you assuming that 64BTC in 52weeks?
10% consistently on the basic model.
Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?
Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.
Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.
At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.
Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.
Purchased today, a blade would generate 64 in 52 weeks. And for every week earlier you purchased, its an additional 3 coins. Ie mine purchased 3-4 weeks ago = ~73 with frozen exchange rates. ROI for purchased today is about 27 weeks.
EDIT: Its also worth noting that the main ROI is actually from expected currency shifts. 52 weeks is a long, long time in btc terms.
At what rate of difficulty growth are you assuming that 64BTC in 52weeks?
Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?
Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.
Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.
At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.
Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.
Purchased today, a blade would generate 64 in 52 weeks. And for every week earlier you purchased, its an additional 3 coins. Ie mine purchased 3-4 weeks ago = ~73 with frozen exchange rates. ROI for purchased today is about 27 weeks.
EDIT: Its also worth noting that the main ROI is actually from expected currency shifts. 52 weeks is a long, long time in btc terms.
We are all dancing around the issue... the question isn't "Is Asic Mining equipment overpriced?"
The question is "Are Asics a good value?"
If you want an Asic miner today, get in on 1 of the many AM USB Block Eruptors on this forum and you should have your trinket in a matter of days. So... there is an ASIC miner in your price range. It just isn't a good value... especially because we all see and know the difficulty is going up... WAY up.
Avalon by themselves have produced/are producing 100Th/s of miners among Batches 1 2 and 3 of miners.
They have also sold 64,000 BTC ($8.3M USD) ~ 230+Th/s of chips... and you can believe that they will for the most part get turned into active miners before the middle of October (hey... a B3 miner orderer can dream
).
http://blockexplorer.com/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU
So... there is difficulty coming from Avalon to the tune of 300Th/s (lets assume that ~30Ths of B1 and B2 has already been deployed soo... 10%).
There is also AM who will be able to deploy more of their own hashpower now that the network has matured enough to support it. I think I read they have 250Th/s planned as well.
Remember we are at about 120Th/s right now.
http://blockchain.info/stats
That puts 4 to 5 times the current hashing power onto the network in the next couple of months of the guys who have stated their intentions. There is also AsicGarden (100Th/s ?), BitFury (100Th/s?), Blofeld/SPECTRE Mining (500Th/s --- trying for 51% attack of course)... etc.
Anyway... this brings us back to the question... are Asics a good value?
And I think we can answer... with current prices and the long term projections... they are a horrible value if you receive them when the difficulty is going to be 5x to 6x higher.
Someone mentioned that mining hardware is a suicidal business... every sale you make, makes your future sales less appealing. What we are seeing is that statement made real. Kudos to Avalon for finding a way of making a go of it.
Personally I think their chip sales was a checkmate move against the rest of the mining hardware makers. It solved a couple of problems:
1) Allowed for decentralization of mining at a massive scale achieving one of their primary goals
2) Crowd sourced/distributed the production capacity of mining to the "private sector"... reinforcing goal 1
3) Put all other hardware manufacturers on notice that their is now a ticking time bomb of difficulty that they need ship before... frankly, Avalon's chip sales may be the best thing that ever happened to BFL customers. BFL now has to ship big quantities in the next 10 weeks to stay relevant/solvent.
4) Provided a funding source for their next generation of asic
Avalon is positioning themselves to be the Intel or Apple of asic mining technology... not a bad place to be positioned.
Soo... will your asic pay itself back before DIFFIPOCALYPSE.
If it does... then yay! you have have an asic that is a good value. If not... then it is overpriced... no matter how cheap it is.
Right now I would argue that the probability of AM's products are unlikely to return over the course of a year, with the very generous assumption that the difficulty will average 3.5x the current difficulty (we know the difficulty is going to be 6+x but I am being generous). If you think the avg is going to be less steep... I point to exhibit A:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
That graph is just the excitement over BTC... it doesn't come close to showing what Asics are going to bring --- DIFFIPOCALYPSE
I calculate that with only and avg 3.5x increase in difficulty over the course of the next 365 days... the 10GHs AM blades will return 43BTC. Not a good value. USB miners are about the same... 1.75 BTC over the course of a year at avg difficulty of only 3.5x. Avalon most expensive miners (B3) are able to breakeven upto 12x over the course of a year... but that ignores power costs.
One final thought:
Bitcoin mining was never meant to be an anti-capitalist, meritocratic, socialist utopia. Sorry to burst your illusions but bitcoin mining is darwin in high relief It is a zero sum game, meaning if you eat... someone else starves -- sad but true. And this isn't new. When CPU mining was all there was... folks with resources "outcompeted" those without... i.e. those with Xeon and CoreI7 processors outcompeted those with crappy cheapo celerons. When GPUs came out... those with the ability to power up 6 5790s with a giant powersupply and water cool them... out competed those with single nVidia whatevers (and CoreI7s). Asics are doing the same, but we shouldn't shed a tear. This is progress! And as always... those who are able to "capitalize" on it... will outcompete those who can't. It isn't sad... it is just how system with people work.
Anyway... this has gotten way too long...
TLDR; --- Currently available Asics are most likley a good value if receive it before Avalon chips ship (DIFFIPOCALYPSE). Asic Miner Asics probably aren't a good value unless you already are in possession of it ... but possibly not even then.
The question is "Are Asics a good value?"
If you want an Asic miner today, get in on 1 of the many AM USB Block Eruptors on this forum and you should have your trinket in a matter of days. So... there is an ASIC miner in your price range. It just isn't a good value... especially because we all see and know the difficulty is going up... WAY up.
Avalon by themselves have produced/are producing 100Th/s of miners among Batches 1 2 and 3 of miners.
They have also sold 64,000 BTC ($8.3M USD) ~ 230+Th/s of chips... and you can believe that they will for the most part get turned into active miners before the middle of October (hey... a B3 miner orderer can dream
).http://blockexplorer.com/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU
So... there is difficulty coming from Avalon to the tune of 300Th/s (lets assume that ~30Ths of B1 and B2 has already been deployed soo... 10%).
There is also AM who will be able to deploy more of their own hashpower now that the network has matured enough to support it. I think I read they have 250Th/s planned as well.
Remember we are at about 120Th/s right now.
http://blockchain.info/stats
That puts 4 to 5 times the current hashing power onto the network in the next couple of months of the guys who have stated their intentions. There is also AsicGarden (100Th/s ?), BitFury (100Th/s?), Blofeld/SPECTRE Mining (500Th/s --- trying for 51% attack of course)... etc.
Anyway... this brings us back to the question... are Asics a good value?
And I think we can answer... with current prices and the long term projections... they are a horrible value if you receive them when the difficulty is going to be 5x to 6x higher.
Someone mentioned that mining hardware is a suicidal business... every sale you make, makes your future sales less appealing. What we are seeing is that statement made real. Kudos to Avalon for finding a way of making a go of it.
Personally I think their chip sales was a checkmate move against the rest of the mining hardware makers. It solved a couple of problems:
1) Allowed for decentralization of mining at a massive scale achieving one of their primary goals
2) Crowd sourced/distributed the production capacity of mining to the "private sector"... reinforcing goal 1
3) Put all other hardware manufacturers on notice that their is now a ticking time bomb of difficulty that they need ship before... frankly, Avalon's chip sales may be the best thing that ever happened to BFL customers. BFL now has to ship big quantities in the next 10 weeks to stay relevant/solvent.
4) Provided a funding source for their next generation of asic
Avalon is positioning themselves to be the Intel or Apple of asic mining technology... not a bad place to be positioned.
Soo... will your asic pay itself back before DIFFIPOCALYPSE.
If it does... then yay! you have have an asic that is a good value. If not... then it is overpriced... no matter how cheap it is.
Right now I would argue that the probability of AM's products are unlikely to return over the course of a year, with the very generous assumption that the difficulty will average 3.5x the current difficulty (we know the difficulty is going to be 6+x but I am being generous). If you think the avg is going to be less steep... I point to exhibit A:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
That graph is just the excitement over BTC... it doesn't come close to showing what Asics are going to bring --- DIFFIPOCALYPSE
I calculate that with only and avg 3.5x increase in difficulty over the course of the next 365 days... the 10GHs AM blades will return 43BTC. Not a good value. USB miners are about the same... 1.75 BTC over the course of a year at avg difficulty of only 3.5x. Avalon most expensive miners (B3) are able to breakeven upto 12x over the course of a year... but that ignores power costs.
One final thought:
Bitcoin mining was never meant to be an anti-capitalist, meritocratic, socialist utopia. Sorry to burst your illusions but bitcoin mining is darwin in high relief It is a zero sum game, meaning if you eat... someone else starves -- sad but true. And this isn't new. When CPU mining was all there was... folks with resources "outcompeted" those without... i.e. those with Xeon and CoreI7 processors outcompeted those with crappy cheapo celerons. When GPUs came out... those with the ability to power up 6 5790s with a giant powersupply and water cool them... out competed those with single nVidia whatevers (and CoreI7s). Asics are doing the same, but we shouldn't shed a tear. This is progress! And as always... those who are able to "capitalize" on it... will outcompete those who can't. It isn't sad... it is just how system with people work.
Anyway... this has gotten way too long...
TLDR; --- Currently available Asics are most likley a good value if receive it before Avalon chips ship (DIFFIPOCALYPSE). Asic Miner Asics probably aren't a good value unless you already are in possession of it ... but possibly not even then.
When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
Exactly. I mine with my old laptop which I bought in the year 0 AS (Anno Satoshi = 2009).
I only get 40 KH/s out of it and have no hope of even getting a fraction of a Bitcoin but every bit counts.
Hopefully one day I will be able to get some kickass hardware one day but that can wait.
I have some Asicminer shares but I'm not expecting to get rich from them (though I wouldn't mind
). It helps to secure the network, AM can sell shares their currently hold to develop better gear.My interest is in getting rid of the awfully corrupt banking system and giving the people sound money so they don't continously lose purchasing power holding hard earned cash as happens now (when having a regular savings account is a losing proposition due to inflation).
Thank you. I sincerely hope there will be a lot around with your attitude, even if the whole Bitcoin world goes crazy about all the "easy money" supposedly laying around waiting to be picked up.
Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?
Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.
Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.
At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.
Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.
+1
Quote
Bottom line here is the guys with deep pockets as usual priced the little guys right out of the equation, welcome to the free market.
+1 
Bottom line here is the guys with deep pockets as usual priced the little guys right out of the equation, welcome to the free market.
Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?
Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.
Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.
At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.
Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.
When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
Exactly. I mine with my old laptop which I bought in the year 0 AS (Anno Satoshi = 2009).
I only get 40 KH/s out of it and have no hope of even getting a fraction of a Bitcoin but every bit counts.
Hopefully one day I will be able to get some kickass hardware one day but that can wait.
I have some Asicminer shares but I'm not expecting to get rich from them (though I wouldn't mind
). It helps to secure the network, AM can sell shares their currently hold to develop better gear.My interest is in getting rid of the awfully corrupt banking system and giving the people sound money so they don't continously lose purchasing power holding hard earned cash as happens now (when having a regular savings account is a losing proposition due to inflation).
would I be wrong in saying, even with the money they are not for sale other than in silly usb sticks?
I understand all your rationalizations[....] They are still irrationally narrow-focused, 'motive' aside. I don't even want to get into a debate about what kind of hedge a 4-month break-even 50BTC device is against an 80BTC (difficulty doubling) device, that's for you and your god to work out.
You lost me here. I won't even attempt to reply unless you want to rephrase all of this, for fear of misinterpreting your comments. What do I have to work out with my god, and what is a difficulty doubling device? I am not trying to be rude. I just don't understand your comments.
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