Topic: ASICs are Over priced - page 2. (Read 5022 times)

I didn't say linear did I. But in either case, we really don't know what will happen after Sept-Oct when the Avalon DIYs come online. Any new releases, if any, could be on any process, any price, by anyone. Multinationals might have their own ASICs developed and deployed in private by then. Bitcoin price could be $30,000 and makes it profitable to mine on phones.

Who knows, its all an estimation.

Being bemused by your self-aggrandizing and likely fabricated statements is not an "attempt at logic". I do hope "Harvard/MIT" are a little more selective in their candidates (or perhaps they are revamping their courses in logic, be it electrical, mathematical, or philosophical), but perhaps not.

150M in a year at what rate, linear? I'm sure a "Harvard MBA" like yourself can think outside linear growth.

I understand all your rationalizations, and some of them might even make a little sense in certain contexts, I don't disagree with that. They are still irrationally narrow-focused, 'motive' aside. I don't even want to get into a debate about what kind of hedge a 4-month break-even 50BTC device is against an 80BTC (difficulty doubling) device, that's for you and your god to work out.

The market has borne a great deal of capital-glut, and it may yield a great number of happy individuals, or we may hear a bunch of crying and moaning about destroyed lives. No one knows, but it is still a capital-glut nonetheless. I don't begrudge you fellows, because it doesn't affect me, except in keeping me out of the market, but I wasn't banking my life on that anyway. I enjoy mining as a tech-geek, but I don't feel the need to expect it to replace my day-job.

The customers have spoken, and created device costs that are close to unreasonable, excepting under self-convincing circumstances, and that's just how it is. Needn't really be a big debate either way about it.

4 years of engineering and a 2 year MBA at Harvard/MIT = big bucks. Your attempt at logic was a good try though.


Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?

There is method to some of our madness.  I am using the blades as a hedge against the 5 batch 3 Avalons I have on order.  If my Avalons arrive super late, I am betting that the difficulty won't be so high and my blades will make an ROI sooner.  If the Avalons arrive earlier, maybe my blades won't be as profitable but 360,000 MH/s  of hashing power should heal that wound pretty quick.  

Moral of the story:  don't assume you know what everyone's motives are.

If I am able to buy GPU's I should be able to buy an ASIC that suites my budget for a reasonable price. maybe a 5GH/s or a 10GH/s to replace my rig, do not forget an ASIC is good only for mining but a GPU have a resell value.

I am not begging or crying about my situation and I do not need anyone to feel sorry about people in my position, we all should have an equal chance here, this is the spirit of Bitcoin, by paying a load of money for something that is not worth that kind of money you are just hurting people like me. eventually these companys care the most  about money, but go ahead attack me instead of asking how much these things really cost and how much these guys are making of you, instead sitting thinking about it.

Ah internet...

In other news, ASICs are retardedly priced right now, but I blame the bitcoin community more than the manufacturers. ASICMiner is a perfect example, they publicly announced that pricing would be based on the auction results, and more or less true to their word, they were. The first batch auctioned for ~75BTC (more than a blade will probably ever make in its lifetime), Second batch went for 66 or so (see above). Third batch was priced-in at 50BTC and sold out the same day I believe? With a backlog of 140orders on top of their offering.

The third batch may or may not break-even or produce a tiny amount of profit, yet demand for them is so high it is as though they were batch 1 avalons (the price people are paying for a blade is roughly equivalent to what people are paying for batch 2 in-hand avalons, so don't try to say "oh but they ship now!").

So again, the community is at fault, too much capital, not enough sense. C'est la vie.

And as I said before, you can get an ASIC.  You can either wait a few more months when the price plummets, or you can join a group buy, buy AM shares, etc.   Just because you can't have one right this second doesn't mean decentralization is being threatened or that they are so unafforable that a 51% attack is likely.  Quite the opposite.

I began buying bitcoins when they were $10 a coin.  This is affordable to me because I had the foresight and took the risk that you did not.  Don't penalize me because you didn't.  That's almost as bad as the people who say Bitcoin will never succeed because it unfairly awards early adopters.  Do you believe it is a ponzi scheme too?

I agree that they're overpriced, I just disagree with you in how you arrived at that conclusion.

ASIC Hardware (with the exception of BFL which doesn't count, because it's not something you can actually get your hands on right now), is over-priced, but only in the sense that it's unlikely to break even, or turn a decent profit at this point.

One's ability or inability to purchase a product has NOTHING to do with whether or not it's overpriced though. I can't afford to buy a 200,000 sq ft mansion, even if it's "under-priced" by market standards.

The reason these miners cost what they do is because the MARKET is willing to pay it. There are a lot of foolish people who aren't considering the return, and are focusing only on what they can afford (like yourself). What you can afford to pay, and what something's "worth" are not interchangeable terms. As long as people continue to overpay for ASIC hardware, it will continue to be overpriced, regardless of what your own individual finances look like.

The difference is Avalon was an unknown seller, had no significant proof of concept, and there was a cheaper alternative in BFL that appeared way more reputable. Still, delivery "in the future". ASICMiner is proven, has 30,000 of the same product mining themselves, is publicly traded and has items in hand.

Risk = reward, its no secret



If I'd head of bitcoins I would have put $8-10k in when they were around $6. Very surprised I didn't hear of it as at the time I was heavily in the hardware business.


....no, just no. That's like saying "OMG IF EVERYONE IN BITCOIN JOINED TOGETHER THEY COULD 51%". Use common sense please.

but in the other hand you could get an ASIC if they were at a reasonable price and join the club of ASIC miners, this is exactly what we are trying to say here, I work at Goodyear tires as an IT engineer,  Goodyear owns Dunlop, Debica, Fulda and Sava, and we full-fill all our customer needs for price/quality and we still make a decent profit , this is how ASIC chips should be. companys could still make a huge profit with much lower prices so more miners could get the chance to join *decentralization*    

As I said, people have been predicting this for years.  2-3 weeks you can go ahead and send me a PM and I'll let you know if I've powered them down.  I have nothing to hide.  

But let's do some quick math.  I have a reliable, constant 3500MH/s with my six 7950s.  If difficulty is 14,000,000, they will generate ~$490 a month.  I currently pay $140/month in electricity to run them.  So the difficulty will have to be 49,000,000 before they become unprofitable at the current exchange rate.  Source:  http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

If you are saying the difficulty is going to be 49,000,000 in 2 to 3 weeks, I think you should research difficulty jumps.  It cannot rise more than a factor of 4 in a single jump.  Also, you are not taking the exchange rate into account.  If bitcoins rise in value, my GPUs will remain profitable even longer.  If it falls a little, well, I will probably continue to mine because I believe it will rise overall in the long term.

You can be the first to jump the gun then. Disconnect your GPU.

Or keep on mining and see what happens. Difficulty prediction is in the weeds right now, don't give it too much importance. Check how much BTC you make, check the exchange rate. That way you'll know whether your GPU is still useful for mining. I know I'm keeping mine for a while still...

I am sure that you will rethink this after 2-3 weeks when your 7950's wont pay for your energy bills, actually http://allchains.info/ is showing a growth for diff.factor of 21% today,i am really curious what will this be after 3 weeks 

People have been predicting the end of GPU mining for years.  My 7950s are still very profitable and will stay on.  You also forget to take into account exchange rate.  As Bitcoins become more valuable, the length of time GPUs remain profitable is extended.  And I'd guess most of us believe the price will go up over time or we wouldn't be here in the first place. 

And scrypt is dead at the moment.  Litecoin hasn't been as profitable to mine as bitcoin for at least a week.  (shhh, don't tell too many litecoiners, but check dustcoin's calculator for yourself)

ASICs will inevitably come down in price.  When they do, I think all these worries will be moot.

Nope, they are very obviously packaged brand new with mfg date printed and everything.  Sealed antistatic packaging, no dust or fingerprints.  Both of mine were this way.

Yeah but dont worry once in a lifetime chances are what bitcoin is all about this will happen cyclically in the bitcoin community, have faith and make sure you catch the next train in time.

I did´t assume you suggest centralization. But I have strong concern that this is the road we´re all on if we don´t pay close attantion to what is going on right now. As far as I know (and please correct me if I´m wrong) Avalon was the first to ship a batch of 300 ASICs, is processing a 2nd batch right now. ASICminer kept the most hashing power in it´s own hands (not shares, actual control over what their doing) and BFL, well, we all know about BFL.

One Avalon has about 65 G hashing power. Thats about 100 x a 7970 or 200 x a 7850 (e.g. of course).
USB Miners could easily be ignored, they are equal to a 7850 minus the cost of power.

It doesn´t matter if the first wave of Avalons will be resold for a huge profit or will be used for mining right away - the increase of difficulty will throw any of todays "mini miner" with a GPU or even a few of them under the bus - they will most likely switch to scrypt. Even when Avalon-Chips finally reach customers and more mining devices will be on the market, you have to buy a ASIC to participate in the network just to even with your power bill.

This will change the network. Not everyone with a computer who is interested in the idea can join, just the ones who care enough to actually buy hardware that can be used for nothing else than mining will be there - in the long run. That´s centralization - plain and simple.

Apologies, but I was under the impression they were indeed used.

I don't think you have bought a blade, or researched this well enough.  Are you seriously implying that the blades are used?  If so, now you are just spreading lies.