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Topic: ASICS killing BTC ? (Read 15847 times)

member
Activity: 109
Merit: 10
July 06, 2014, 02:01:57 PM
ASIC spoil the whole idea of crypto currencies and the father / mother of all crypto  - Bitcoin

Decentralization is the idea .... and everyone at home can support the network against it to take a few dollars or buy something beautiful as a new phone, car, etc. with the crypto  coin


LTC already died for the ordinary miners with GPU

I bet on Vertcoin, this will be the next hit in crypto World, especially with Stealth Address for all business and people

Take a look at LTC trade volume, and then say it is dead.

You bet on sh*tcoin , then flame old and prooven coins, you must be realy incentive.
Which ironically is how this whole thread started.
legendary
Activity: 4270
Merit: 4534
July 06, 2014, 01:45:55 PM
nah, we having mining until 2140

No. We have mining as long as Bitcoin exists. If mining were to stop, Bitcoin would no longer function.

You seem to be confusing the block subsidies with mining itself.

mining is the concept of creating new bitcoins as a reward for auditing transactions.. like bringing new gold into circulation is mining but counting and verifying gold hoards and movements is auditing holdings....

the mix up is that people call the auditing, mining. because their brains care more about getting the new coin then the auditing part, and because these 2 processes are combined, they lazily just call it mining.

but in 2140 no new coins will come into circulation.. although the protocol for making blocks wont change (auditing).. an analogy would be more closer to only auditing after 2140,, not mining.. because after 2140 il repeat.. no new coins will be added to circulation.

so the term would be auditing the blockchain, or administering* the blockchain.. or something along those lines.. but who cares about 2140 we will all be dead and buried by then..

*hmmm administering.. admining.. could catch on Cheesy

as for the topic question

video killed the radio star (its a song)
dvd killed the video star
blueray killed the dvd star

GPU killed the CPU miner
FPGA killed the GPU miner
ASIC killed the FPGA miner..

every couple years we will hear someone complain that new tech killed old tech...

my only reply is .. tech evolves, move on, deal with it. dont get stuck in the past

newbie
Activity: 27
Merit: 0
July 06, 2014, 12:02:50 PM
This needs up voting...badly. People need to understand that the path they are on, Bitcoin has already walked.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1038
July 06, 2014, 02:24:55 AM
DarkCoin? I'm mining ConspiracyCoin on my GPUs, even made a profit today 33.001 coins in 5 hours.  Tongue

EDIT:

66.001 in 23.9 hours, the ASIC conspiracy has failed to keep me from turning a profit!

Go on make an X11 ASIC... assholes
donator
Activity: 1616
Merit: 1003
July 06, 2014, 02:08:28 AM
Yeah, damn those Greedy Miners and their Evil ASICs. The Decentralized Commoner should be able to mine coins with their GPU and get their share of the wealth Roll Eyes.

Guess the solution to this would be to design a custom algorithm for some shit coin that nobody wants and no one would bother to design an ASIC for it.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
July 06, 2014, 01:39:01 AM
u are true when u say that.  but who is gonna buy "dark" coin over "lite"

light always wins.  us hould know that
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1038
July 06, 2014, 12:31:19 AM
X11 is the new Scrypt.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
July 05, 2014, 11:52:43 PM
ASIC spoil the whole idea of crypto currencies and the father / mother of all crypto  - Bitcoin

Decentralization is the idea .... and everyone at home can support the network against it to take a few dollars or buy something beautiful as a new phone, car, etc. with the crypto  coin


LTC already died for the ordinary miners with GPU

I bet on Vertcoin, this will be the next hit in crypto World, especially with Stealth Address for all business and people

Bahaha I must do the opposite as you. Can I short vertcoin somehow? Someone make a ltc/vtc exhange its a winning ticket!
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1009
July 05, 2014, 05:09:32 PM
fatal as they will permanently remove the perception of BTC as a viable long term investment.
Do you think, in that case, LTC could be percieved as a viable long term investment?

No, or at least it will be massively reduced compared to the expectations that have been built around BTC.  If BTC ever ceases to be be a viable long term investment then it takes every other coin with it because it will be obvius the LTC would also have a successor some day.  But I wouldn't be surprised if it takes several such successions until people finally realize that the value in crypto-currency is the CODE not the COINS and we are going to see a succession of innovative coins that gradually supplant each other on technical merits, much as we treat every other piece of software ever made.

Very original thinking. Must sit and think.
How is this thesis working out so far?
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1000
Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin
July 05, 2014, 04:59:41 PM
ASIC spoil the whole idea of crypto currencies and the father / mother of all crypto  - Bitcoin

Decentralization is the idea .... and everyone at home can support the network against it to take a few dollars or buy something beautiful as a new phone, car, etc. with the crypto  coin


LTC already died for the ordinary miners with GPU

I bet on Vertcoin, this will be the next hit in crypto World, especially with Stealth Address for all business and people

Take a look at LTC trade volume, and then say it is dead.

You bet on sh*tcoin , then flame old and prooven coins, you must be realy incentive.
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1000
July 05, 2014, 04:56:40 PM
ASIC spoil the whole idea of crypto currencies and the father / mother of all crypto  - Bitcoin

Decentralization is the idea .... and everyone at home can support the network against it to take a few dollars or buy something beautiful as a new phone, car, etc. with the crypto  coin


LTC already died for the ordinary miners with GPU

I bet on Vertcoin, this will be the next hit in crypto World, especially with Stealth Address for all business and people
newbie
Activity: 11
Merit: 0
July 19, 2013, 01:33:58 AM
fatal as they will permanently remove the perception of BTC as a viable long term investment.
Do you think, in that case, LTC could be percieved as a viable long term investment?

No, or at least it will be massively reduced compared to the expectations that have been built around BTC.  If BTC ever ceases to be be a viable long term investment then it takes every other coin with it because it will be obvius the LTC would also have a successor some day.  But I wouldn't be surprised if it takes several such successions until people finally realize that the value in crypto-currency is the CODE not the COINS and we are going to see a succession of innovative coins that gradually supplant each other on technical merits, much as we treat every other piece of software ever made.

Very original thinking. Must sit and think.

Hardware 'volume' is essentially the proxy for the value of a particular Cryptocurrency [inherent given the proof-of-work designation that pays out the currency].

Although you are certainly correct that the technical merit of Cryptocurrencies will increase over time [as both a byproduct of further mathematical precision and the need to protect the network against more sophisticated hardware - Graphene microprocessors & Spintronics systems], the initial investments into the hardware must be made to made a singular cryptocurrency network valuable to the supposed users of said network.

a classic chicken & the egg problem emerges from this relatively straightforward logic.


Needless to say... I certainly feel that the number of viable & valuable cryptocurrencies will grow over time. But in the mean time - Bitcoin's first mover advantage and Litecoin's relatively-more-sophisticated mathematical approach [along with both's relatively large hardware base over other newcomer coins] have successfully entrenched them for the longer-term.

-Johnny
www.americandatafarms.com
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
July 18, 2013, 09:02:45 PM
fatal as they will permanently remove the perception of BTC as a viable long term investment.
Do you think, in that case, LTC could be percieved as a viable long term investment?

No, or at least it will be massively reduced compared to the expectations that have been built around BTC.  If BTC ever ceases to be be a viable long term investment then it takes every other coin with it because it will be obvius the LTC would also have a successor some day.  But I wouldn't be surprised if it takes several such successions until people finally realize that the value in crypto-currency is the CODE not the COINS and we are going to see a succession of innovative coins that gradually supplant each other on technical merits, much as we treat every other piece of software ever made.

Very original thinking. Must sit and think.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
July 18, 2013, 08:58:03 PM
I think Mr Kaminsky really screwed up in this prediction. Miners have way too much invested to switch from the current function, it will be nearly impossible to build up an alternative mining infrastructure that can be as secure as the current one quickly enough to just switch to it, and besides, Gavin has absolutely no interest in switching the algorithm, either. He specifically said so when asked about that article.

Kaminsky's prediction can come to pass by LTC simply superseding BTC as the dominant coin, and that is in fact the most likely scenario for that to happen due to resistance of BTC developers and BTC miners to consider any change in hash protocol.

Personally I believe the current dynamic we are seeing in the BTC price decline has nothing to do with government regulation, Gox or ASICs, its just the final stage of the deflation of the bubble and it will bottom out in the $10 to $30 range following a curve much like that after July 2011.  But unlike 2011 BTC now has a competitor that is showing independent and stable valuation, that presents a huge risk that BTC won't rebound in value as people have other coins to put their money in.

Now you might argue that their are all these SHA dedicated ASICs in existence now that can't move into LTC so they will just keep mining BTC and all those ASICS have sooooo many more hashes and are more 'secure' then LTC.  This is correct on the surface but irrelevant, coins derive their exchange value from the number of USD that people are offering for the coins divided by the number of coins offered for sale, past expenditure of 'Work' are irrelevant.  If the number of dollars that want LTC exceeds the dollars that want BTC then LTC will be worth more and will be the 'growth' coin.

Already total LTC mining revenue is 27% of BTCs, and if LTC maintains it's current price and BTC declines to the $20 point then the two coins would be at equal mining revenue.  If we see any kind of significant increase in LTC value following the highly anticipated (and hyped) inclusion of it on Gox then the cross over can occur with very little further decline in BTC valuation.  Their is also likely a zero-sum game here too, the customer base for BTC and LTC are nearly identical and it's likely that their is a limited pool of dollars and that a boom in one coin will always result in a slump in others.  A very large boom in LTC could cause such a drying up of dollars offered for BTC that it collapses down to levels that are effectively fatal as they will permanently remove the perception of BTC as a viable long term investment.

This is the first argument that makes sense to me in favor of LTC. Thanks for sharing Smiley
newbie
Activity: 11
Merit: 0
July 18, 2013, 06:43:01 PM
ASICs were anticipated as part of the 'Bitcoin Whitepaper' - Bitcoin itself is a mechanism designed to facilitate efficiency on numerous levels, computing efficiency being one of them.

Given ASICs supremacy in both Total Processing Power & Processing Power per Watt, ASICs in a sense are a metaphorical representation of Bitcoin fulfilling its computational efficiency potential.

Any statements otherwise must then be fallacious.

-Johnny
www.americandatafarms.com
newbie
Activity: 5
Merit: 0
July 12, 2013, 06:13:35 PM
I will admit I was initially attracted to BTC by the idea of mining and making some extra money.

With more and more ASIC miners coming on board, the barrier of entry will likely increase for a short period of time when big miners still cost a lot, but there are enough of them out there to greatly increase the difficulty levels.

However, as ASIC rigs continue to drop in price, they will also be devaluing their predecessors to some degree. At some point we'll be back to a lot of people having access to similarly powered setups just like what I've read about the pre-ASIC mining days.

If all of those suppositions are correct, I wouldn't expect ASICs to kill BTC, I would expect them to usher in the transition away from video card mining to ASIC mining which will be a period of great flux during which some large entities may be able to make significant sums of money.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1009
July 12, 2013, 05:59:33 PM
IPX/SPX and TCP/IP were developed completely independently with different goals, different target markets, different development models that have very little in common besides the basic concepts.
The point is that IPX/SPX is the one that nobody uses any more.

Metcalfe's law means there is little demand for competing networking standards, just like there is little demand for competing cryptocurrencies.
legendary
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1068
July 12, 2013, 05:18:07 PM
I'm not a networking wiz, and only know IPX as the old Novel Netware that DOS based computers used to run before they switched to Windows and TCP/IP. Could you explain why that comparison was "stupid pseudo-technical drivel" please?
IPX/SPX and TCP/IP were developed completely independently with different goals, different target markets, different development models that have very little in common besides the basic concepts.

For a "not a networking wiz" I think it should be sufficient to read the Wikipedia articles portions about their respective history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_protocol_suite#History

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPX/SPX

Edit: It took me a while to locate the appropriate document:

TCP AND IP BAKE OFF
http://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc1025

This is probably the shortest description how the architects of TCP/IP encouraged interoperability of independent implementations and the general spirit of the cooperation within their base of users and vendors. Probably the quickest way to describe Bitcoin supporters is how they are an almost exact opposite of IETF: discouraging interoperability, confusing documentation, denigrating of both competitive and compatible implementations.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
July 11, 2013, 11:41:12 PM
The point is that its a free market (god, I hate that word, sounds so libertarian!),  and there's no reason why bitcoin should be the only choice. ... People choose between debit and credit, paper or plastic, visa Amex Mastercard, choose among different banks and gas stations (whose final product is indistinguishable from that of their competitors). Contrary to your statement, there is in fact a contingent of people who use macs. There's also many people who use iOS and many more who opt for android, while others opt for blackberry. RHEL, Centos or Ubuntu? Postgres, MySQL, mariadb, oracle, SQL server or FileMaker?

There will of course be alternative cryptocurrencies. There are no laws or rules against them, and obviously everyone is free to use them. My main point is that Bitcoin is not dying, nor is it anywhere at risk of being replaced by something like Litecoin. Not unless something so radically different comes along that Bitcoin ca't implement it even with a hard fork. And sure, people use all those other OS's, but that still does't change the fact that Windows is the dominant OS out there.

So the point is, nowhere do you see a "this is good enough for everyone" approach, yet a lot of people think that bitcoin, with its 3 year history, ought to be it for peer to peer currencies.

I don't know what other people think. The reason I personally think that bitcoin is it, is simply because it's a protocol, not a piece of software that gets upgraded or not. If something like Litecoin's 2.5 minute block confirmation time turns out to be a significant advantage, Bitcoin can easily switch to such a confirmation with a fork. If, or rather when, SHA-265 hashing algorithm becomes inadequate, Bitcoin will switch to something better, like Scrypt, or something that is resistant to quantum computers. Bitcoin can even run two different mining algorithms at the same time if need be, giving time for miners to switch from old to new mining hardware. There is just nothing that I can think of, short of debt-based Ripple system, that Bitcoin can't implement if users see a need for it.


The time to first confirmation is a huge one I think.

I actually think confirmation times may be too short in the long run. There are discussions elsewhere on this forum about the speed-of-light problem for using Bitcoin between Earth and Mars. As for buying things like coffee, there are lots of ways to use bicoin where you don't need to worry about confirmations. One of those methods will be released either in 0.9, or the version after.


The artificial cap on number of coins to be issued is another (I see zero advantage to this over a perpetually expanding monetary base).

This has been discussed at length, and the basic problem is, how do you control the increase? If you give that control to a party of people, you've basically defeated one of the biggest reasons for Bitcoin. If you base it on some algorithm, there will always be ways to game them. If you just set it to a constant 3% a year increase, not only will you have trouble convincing people to move their money into something that gives them a negative return (see Freicoin), but the world's economy doesn't grow at a constant 3%, so you'll still have boom and bust cycles with periods of inflation/deflation.

More simply, and I say this as a complete hypocrite, having mined coins, sold them and bought from BFL while seeing dollar signs in my eyes, I think that the incentives in Bitcoin are completely upside down; people concentrate on mining as their road to riches rather than concieving businesses, and people hold coins close to their chest on hoping to simply profit from the fact that they hold those coins....

I'll name some of the richest Bitcoin people who are running bitcoin businesses:

Eric Voorhees (Satoshidice, Coinapult), Charlie Shrem (Bitinstant), Roger Ver (Bitcoinstore.com, and many others), Tony Gallippi (BitPay), Jered Kenna (Tradehill), Mark Karpeles (MtGox).

Now can you name some of the richest people who are bitcoin miners?

Sure, people started out thinking of Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme, where you just run your GPU and print money. I was one of them. But bitcoin mostly makes people rich when they actually do some business with it. And Satoshi's brilliant idea was also that those who mined and hoarded at the start, found themselves wealthy once Bitcoin was more widely accepted, and are now pumping that wealth into developing more bitcoin tools. If you had been at the Bitcoin 2013 conference, you would've seen that of al the energy and enthusiasm there, barely any of it was about mining (BFL had a table, and Yifu made a presentation about Avalon), but 95% of the rest of it was all about bitcoin businesses, hardware, development, financial services, etc. The tens of thousands of dollars that were being thrown around at the conference weren't from miners.



I don't see why there are uproars when that happens, quite honestly. Worse are calls to actually attack the the competitors, and worse still are those who actually do attack currencies, simply because those currencies aren't Bitcoin.

Part of the reason there are uproars is because newbies get suckered into investing in scamcoins, or investing their money into altcoins thinking they can be "early adopters" or wealthy miners, when whatever it is they are adopting has no support behind it. Personally, I don't see Litecoin's "economy" growing beyond just the miners who feel butthurt about not being able to mine bitcoins anymore, and thus expect that it will eventually stagnate. There really aren't any benefits that can't be overcome on bitcoin's side. Look at this list:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/List_of_alternative_cryptocurrencies

and think about how many fools were parted with their money.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
July 11, 2013, 11:33:28 PM
Litecoin is IPX/SPX to Bitcoin's TCP/IP.
This is probably the most stupid pseudo-technical drivel that I have read since Mike Hearn warned against "running out of disk seeks". I decided to preserve it for posterity.


I'm not a networking wiz, and only know IPX as the old Novel Netware that DOS based computers used to run before they switched to Windows and TCP/IP. Could you explain why that comparison was "stupid pseudo-technical drivel" please?

In that case, perhaps Bitcoin is the TCP/IP...
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