In addition to my earlier post, we released a video that explains Augur in a simplified and easy to understand manner. My good friend (and Bitcoin fan) Country singer Shooter Jennings was nice enough to narrate the video, which I believe came out great.
This is something I wish that had it's own thread, if you are interested in the project please share this with anyone who you think would share interest, it would be greatly appreciated.
Check out my short blog post that accompanied the video http://www.augur.net/blog/how-augur-works-video.
Direct link to the video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yegyih591Jo
Topic: Augur - a decentralized prediction market platform - page 30. (Read 114308 times)
This is Tony from the Augur team and I wanted to share our latest blog posts with the community as I feel they will be of interest, one is about Combinatorial Prediction Markets and the other is a guest post by Augur Advisor and Wharton Researcher, Dr. Abe Othman on Automated Market Makers.
In addition, I have been on BitcoinTalk before but feel free to follow myself on Twitter http://twitter.com/tonyswish or check out my podcast (Episode 19 with Augur Lead Dev. Joey Krug is recommended) at decentralize.fm.
Why Combinatorial Prediction Markets are Useful by Augur Lead Dev. Joey Krug - http://www.augur.net/blog/why-combinatorial-prediction-markets-are-useful
What is an Automated Market Maker? by Dr. Abe Othman - http://www.augur.net/blog/what-is-an-automated-market-maker
For the latest updates about the project, I want to also share a few links here as we want to make sure BitcoinTalk members can follow what we are doing in the easiest manner possible:
Augur Blog - http://www.augur.net/#blog
Augur on Twitter - http://twitter.com/AugurProject
Augur on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/augurproject
Augur on GitHub - https://github.com/AugurProject
In addition, I have been on BitcoinTalk before but feel free to follow myself on Twitter http://twitter.com/tonyswish or check out my podcast (Episode 19 with Augur Lead Dev. Joey Krug is recommended) at decentralize.fm.
Why Combinatorial Prediction Markets are Useful by Augur Lead Dev. Joey Krug - http://www.augur.net/blog/why-combinatorial-prediction-markets-are-useful
What is an Automated Market Maker? by Dr. Abe Othman - http://www.augur.net/blog/what-is-an-automated-market-maker
For the latest updates about the project, I want to also share a few links here as we want to make sure BitcoinTalk members can follow what we are doing in the easiest manner possible:
Augur Blog - http://www.augur.net/#blog
Augur on Twitter - http://twitter.com/AugurProject
Augur on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/augurproject
Augur on GitHub - https://github.com/AugurProject
We just made this announcement and wanted to share it here.
We've now gotten all augur contracts on the live Ethereum testnet. All function calls have been tested (albeit naively, with more testing ongoing) and confirmed working. Our code is now open source, lots of documentation & a UI will be coming soon.
https://github.com/AugurProject/Augur-core
We've now gotten all augur contracts on the live Ethereum testnet. All function calls have been tested (albeit naively, with more testing ongoing) and confirmed working. Our code is now open source, lots of documentation & a UI will be coming soon.
https://github.com/AugurProject/Augur-core
This is very interesting. Please keep us posted on any updates
We just made this announcement and wanted to share it here.
We've now gotten all augur contracts on the live Ethereum testnet. All function calls have been tested (albeit naively, with more testing ongoing) and confirmed working. Our code is now open source, lots of documentation & a UI will be coming soon.
https://github.com/AugurProject/Augur-core
We've now gotten all augur contracts on the live Ethereum testnet. All function calls have been tested (albeit naively, with more testing ongoing) and confirmed working. Our code is now open source, lots of documentation & a UI will be coming soon.
https://github.com/AugurProject/Augur-core
"We recently put almost all of Augur's contracts on chain and last night made
our first live function call on Ethereum's Frontier testnet. "
http://www.augur.net/blog/augur-creates-first-on-chain-event
This is hugely important work, thanks for your efforts!
Like many brilliant ideas around these parts, I am left wondering "where is the implementation?"
I think you will find that determining "the truth" or in the language of your whitepaper "accurate reporting" is the crux of the biscuit. I see from your blog you are tackling this head on and moving past the days of suggesting that "Googling" is somehow part of the solution. if we could trust a predetermined third party to report on outcomes we wouldn't need your project.
I think you will find that some use of proof of coin holdings by reporters for trust of event reporting is a good way to go.
You will also need to make a decent analysis of the monetary risk of corruption of reporting source (I guess people are using the name oracle for this which I don't like but hey that's pretty typical of language). In other words, if the bids and asks on a given prediction market really start to heat up and the amount of BTC at stake starts to reach some function of the BTC that is being held and counted in use of reporting the event outcome, the reliability of this market is compromised.
So sorry, just more ideas here, not the implementations you would like.
Keep up the good work! I have money riding on your success
Like many brilliant ideas around these parts, I am left wondering "where is the implementation?"
I think you will find that determining "the truth" or in the language of your whitepaper "accurate reporting" is the crux of the biscuit. I see from your blog you are tackling this head on and moving past the days of suggesting that "Googling" is somehow part of the solution. if we could trust a predetermined third party to report on outcomes we wouldn't need your project.
I think you will find that some use of proof of coin holdings by reporters for trust of event reporting is a good way to go.
You will also need to make a decent analysis of the monetary risk of corruption of reporting source (I guess people are using the name oracle for this which I don't like but hey that's pretty typical of language). In other words, if the bids and asks on a given prediction market really start to heat up and the amount of BTC at stake starts to reach some function of the BTC that is being held and counted in use of reporting the event outcome, the reliability of this market is compromised.
So sorry, just more ideas here, not the implementations you would like.
Keep up the good work! I have money riding on your success
You're exactly right that it's the crux of the biscuit (fellow biscuit lover here btw)!
There's been a lot of discussion and work done on risks of corruption by Vitalik Buterin (his p+epsilon posts) and Paul Sztorc (Truthcoin whitepaper and forum discussions). I think it'd be interesting to do some BAR (Byzantine, Altruistic, Rational) analysis on our system's reporting aspects. Yeah, you're right on the BTC at stake part; the problem starts to appear when the BTC at stake in a market is > value of all reputation used for reporting.
Thank you, just finished a major codebase refactoring & put a bunch of our contracts on ethereum blockchain so I'm quite excited too!
This is some what close to the binary markets, it was a great a idea, i wish we could have it for btc too, is anyone building something like this for btc at the moment?
We'll allow you to use sidechained Bitcoin once sidechains are released.
Would it be possible to create a data feed in Augur with e.g. an hourly fiat exchange rate update?
Seems I don't have the email from my old 2011 account anymore & thus can't recover the password :/ Anyway,
Yep --- you'd basically create a branch with a quick reporting period
Regarding block times, currently looking at ~12 seconds.
"Augur Bets on Bright Future for Blockchain Prediction Markets"
http://www.coindesk.com/augur-future-blockchain-prediction-market/
The article w/ annotations by Joey Krug:
http://genius.com/4974142/Pete-rizzo-augur-bets-on-bright-future-for-blockchain-prediction-markets/His-latest-idea
Are your block times under 10 seconds or do you still depend on the slower and older algos?
Introducing the Team Building A Decentralized Prediction Market
"Tony Sakich, Augur's Director of Marketing introduces both Lead Software Developers for Augur, Joey Krug & Dr. Jack Peterson.
Joey and Jack co-wrote the Augur White Paper and are a part of the brilliant development team currently working for Augur."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64ArAtF0flw
"Tony Sakich, Augur's Director of Marketing introduces both Lead Software Developers for Augur, Joey Krug & Dr. Jack Peterson.
Joey and Jack co-wrote the Augur White Paper and are a part of the brilliant development team currently working for Augur."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64ArAtF0flw
"Augur Bets on Bright Future for Blockchain Prediction Markets"
http://www.coindesk.com/augur-future-blockchain-prediction-market/
The article w/ annotations by Joey Krug:
http://genius.com/4974142/Pete-rizzo-augur-bets-on-bright-future-for-blockchain-prediction-markets/His-latest-idea
This is hugely important work, thanks for your efforts!
Like many brilliant ideas around these parts, I am left wondering "where is the implementation?"
I think you will find that determining "the truth" or in the language of your whitepaper "accurate reporting" is the crux of the biscuit. I see from your blog you are tackling this head on and moving past the days of suggesting that "Googling" is somehow part of the solution. if we could trust a predetermined third party to report on outcomes we wouldn't need your project.
I think you will find that some use of proof of coin holdings by reporters for trust of event reporting is a good way to go.
You will also need to make a decent analysis of the monetary risk of corruption of reporting source (I guess people are using the name oracle for this which I don't like but hey that's pretty typical of language). In other words, if the bids and asks on a given prediction market really start to heat up and the amount of BTC at stake starts to reach some function of the BTC that is being held and counted in use of reporting the event outcome, the reliability of this market is compromised.
So sorry, just more ideas here, not the implementations you would like.
Keep up the good work! I have money riding on your success
Like many brilliant ideas around these parts, I am left wondering "where is the implementation?"
I think you will find that determining "the truth" or in the language of your whitepaper "accurate reporting" is the crux of the biscuit. I see from your blog you are tackling this head on and moving past the days of suggesting that "Googling" is somehow part of the solution. if we could trust a predetermined third party to report on outcomes we wouldn't need your project.
I think you will find that some use of proof of coin holdings by reporters for trust of event reporting is a good way to go.
You will also need to make a decent analysis of the monetary risk of corruption of reporting source (I guess people are using the name oracle for this which I don't like but hey that's pretty typical of language). In other words, if the bids and asks on a given prediction market really start to heat up and the amount of BTC at stake starts to reach some function of the BTC that is being held and counted in use of reporting the event outcome, the reliability of this market is compromised.
So sorry, just more ideas here, not the implementations you would like.
Keep up the good work! I have money riding on your success
Just found out about Augur, very very cool. I started some threads on this forum to inquire about Bitcoin prediction market development projects, but didn't find anything really wow. This is the most promising project that I have seen so far.
This is some what close to the binary markets, it was a great a idea, i wish we could have it for btc too, is anyone building something like this for btc at the moment?
Would it be possible to create a data feed in Augur with e.g. an hourly fiat exchange rate update?
SF Bitcoin Devs Seminar: Using Serpent on Augur to Build Prediction Markets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7JVcAgP1nw
Published on Feb 11, 2015
Jack Peterson & Joey Krug present the details of how they're implementing a decentralized PM, why Bitcoin is the best fuel for a decentralized PM, and how (+why) they are using Serpent to do it.
http://www.augur.net/
Why Augur chose Ethereum as the development environment for its 'decentralized prediction market platform'
http://www.augur.net/blog/why-ethereum
https://blog.ethereum.org/
Would it be possible to create a data feed in Augur with e.g. an hourly fiat exchange rate update?
Have you considered using Factom for Augur?
How are you finding this project?
How are you finding this project?
Hey Tony,
Appreciate your interest! Your summary is pretty spot on, I'll clarify a few things:
1. Exactly! As for the US dollar part, the way it would work is as follows: you buy some bitcoin, then when you want to use the Augur platform you can sidechain the bitcoin over directly. The problem with this is if we make a prediction on something that happens a year from now, we may not want to keep our money wagered in bitcoin that entire time. In this scenario what would be best is if we could hold USD, unfortunately there is no cryptocurrency-usd, however we can convert our money into a seigniorage-based coin. Basically, if more people use the coin, supply goes up, so as to maintain par value with the USD. One example of this is Nubits.
2. No comment.
3. This is more or less correct, with the exception that anyone can be a reporter on outcomes, not just an elite group of super users/oracles. The more accurate you are, the more your reports are weighted.
4. Yep, their reputation points take a hit.
Appreciate your interest! Your summary is pretty spot on, I'll clarify a few things:
1. Exactly! As for the US dollar part, the way it would work is as follows: you buy some bitcoin, then when you want to use the Augur platform you can sidechain the bitcoin over directly. The problem with this is if we make a prediction on something that happens a year from now, we may not want to keep our money wagered in bitcoin that entire time. In this scenario what would be best is if we could hold USD, unfortunately there is no cryptocurrency-usd, however we can convert our money into a seigniorage-based coin. Basically, if more people use the coin, supply goes up, so as to maintain par value with the USD. One example of this is Nubits.
2. No comment.
3. This is more or less correct, with the exception that anyone can be a reporter on outcomes, not just an elite group of super users/oracles. The more accurate you are, the more your reports are weighted.
4. Yep, their reputation points take a hit.
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