The difficulty will be higher after B2 completes and all of us get our B3s (~100THs). Then there are the avalon chip sales following 4 to 8 weeks from now (200THs).
Current network hash power is around 120TH/s. So.. we are looking at 2x difficulty with shipment of B2 and B3 ~ 240TH/s (Difficulty ~32M)... and then doubling again with Avalon chip sales not too long after ~480TH/s (difficulty 64M).
This is ignoring all of the competitors who won't be sitting still (like Asic Miner and bitfury).
I am hopeful that if difficulty can stay under 100M+ for 4 months, then our Batch3s can break even in 6 or 7 months. At 100M difficulty, an overclocked 4module B3 (~97GH/s) should return around .5 BTC a day.
I am not complaining... just stating facts as they have been communicated.
Using todays difficulty projections for our batch is misleading at best.
Thanks for the analysis.
From that I gather that the price for a not-yet delivered Avalon batch 3 machine is dropping pretty quickly. This is doubly true for those other guys who are struggling to deliver product.
The question I ponder is what is the "floor" price for a mining rig? Is it breaking even in 6 months or 2 years? The build cost of a mining rig be low enough to support a reasonable break even point?
Great analysis. On top of that if we want to continue mining we need capital to keep investing in new appliances. If BTC doesn't go up and actually falls, I believe the dream will be over for a lot of miners. No one at this point should expect to live off of mining. It has to be a secondary source of income at best. Right now mining is a huge risk. We want to generate as much BTC/day as possible but so is everybody else which makes the difficulty increase faster and faster. It is self-defeating! I am investing large for my average budget and already feel a rope around my neck.
J/
look the most successful asic thing: its funded and managed by its owners. we live in an era of crowfunding stuff and that project been proved its effectiveness in mining area too, and yet most of us funded the asic sellers that makes us wait so much in the dust, we became merely costumers with no rights again, the salvation became a trap. I would say asic sellers hostages while they rush to flood the market with power.
we had a choice, but we were never
we in this bitcoin stuff. just look at the guys cheering getting 3 units while people are still waiting for one, look at the guys cheering receiving order first than they sould receive. look at the guys rushing to sell the thing. is this protecting the network? which network?
its clear now only few people cares about the project and the changes it will yet bring. only a quick profit. but thats good to see how easy are people when then face the green bill. a show of mismanagement and disrespect going on here. the sad thing it is still everyman for himself in this thing, and like this we will always sucumb to the exploiters. we should never had given the power away.
