Topic: Avalon batch [3] countdown! - page 40. (Read 56642 times)

Orsoc is always looking for ASIC engineers. They're an ASIC building company. That's like saying Microsoft can't ship Windows 9 because they're hiring developers right now.

I went through Orsocs site and found news of three ASIC specialists they'd hired going back to 2010 and 2011. It's not like Orsoc has never produced an ASIC before or didn't have any people already capable of producing them. This is just FUD and hardly seems a valid reason to doubt them.

Course; don't buy from them.

Indeed. They owe it to batch three to ship out before they ship chips :\

This is true.  Like anything in life, things can't grow exponentially forever.  There will be a point when the ASIC craze ends and people stop buying and mining with them because they are unprofitable.   Just like CPU mining.  At that point the difficulty will level off.  I expect that those who lose money in this will be those just starting to get their ducks in a row and buy bitcoins at the current rate in order to buy ASICS.  It's too late.  

Difficulty can drop, and it will level off and stagnate at a certain point.  Whether that is 100,000,000 300,000,000 or a billion.  I am confident that a functional and reliable Avalon B2 and B3 will be significantly ahead of that curve in the long run.

There could very easily be new silent players in the market with their own chip tech (like Asic Miner except hidden among the major pools or among a number of their own private pools).

At a market price of $100USD per 1 BTC, Bitcoin mining is a $180M+ year business.  If you could own 1/3 of the total hash power (like Asic Miner)... you could easily spend $10M in private R&D and production and make back $25M conservatively.

There is a lot of money to be made... and it ain't gonna be made by the small fries when there is this much profit potential.

The thing is, if a B3 Avalon can't ROI then nothing will from now on, ever. Even klondikes which are ~3x price efficient won't work because on your estimates the difficulty will be 30000000000000000000. But then if difficulty is so high, why is the hash rate increasing? Why would anyone be buying new hardware if it won't pay for itself.

Paradox. You can't have it both ways.

Please have a look on hash rate increasing trend and estimated difficulty next time.
Do you really have confidence that you will receive Avalon batch#3 in 2 weeks?

I wrote I assume, and that's based on previous observations like drops in hashrate shortly before before people claim to got their devices or tracking information. However I have anyway strong doubts that BitSyncom is honest. But take a look by your own, I know you can read Chinese so read the following post and check the date it was written http://www.openmobilefree.net/?p=1361 , afterwards read the newsletter from them with the subject "a Much Needed Update", follow the link with the pictures http://avalon-asic.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=238a9ecd2e5192e3cd3ace26d&id=29186a15cc&e=c781992f8a . Now say me, how it can be "THEIR" facility? It's clearly a supplier, so why are they posting pictures of a supplier and claiming it as their facility, whats about their SMT Line? It smells fishy!
You asked some post ago what we can do. Find out whats true would be a beginning.

even if the difficulty would rise to 25 mil, batch #3 should be BE in two months.

I was not meant to persuade you to stand with me.
I just want to show the status to all the people who ordered batch#3 machines.
In fact, I also ordered batch#2 and till now I still not seen my machine. It was firstly said shipped in March, and then April, and now is June already!

I stand by my statement...

... but other than selling your pre-order, Avalon is still the best option available.

Yes, Avalon's hasn't met their projected time lines.  And yes, difficulty is rising very fast.
Mining is risky.  You need to be on the bleeding edge to make ROI.

If you really feel strongly that you aren't going to make your ROI, then sell you pre-order.
People still believe B3 will return more than 100BTC.  If you are concerned about your pre-order... sell it for 102BTC (to cover Jon's escrow) and get out.

I am a bit of a risk taker and don't have much fiat caught up in this (though a substantial amount of BTC --- all B3 orders are significant orders).
I am willing to let it ride and put my trust in Avalon for another 30 days.  Otherwise you might see one or two pre-order B3s being listed by in the marketplace.

Determine what your pain threshold is... pull the trigger on action when you hit it.

Just my .0002BTC

Look at the hashing power and difficulty now. Do you really think you can get your payment back when you got your batch#3? Come on, wake up!

I don't think Butterfly Labs tactics are appropriate yet.

And who else would you go with? 
What are your options?

KNC? ==>  Orsoc is looking for ASIC engineers... October seems aggressive.
BFL? ==> Order now?! You have to be kidding me.  Wait behind 40,000 orders -- 2014
Metabank ==> are they legit? Trust in an exporter?  August to October.  Do you think  you won't get your B3 before August?

It is nice to see that there are options out there, but right now Avalon is still pushing more hashing power out to customers than anyone else. 

Lets just hope they ship batch 3 before the raw chips.  Otherwise people will be hashing with B3 clones before we get our official versions, and I think it would be safe to say that the probability of negative ROI over the course of a year is very high.

How do you know the unknown hashing power is Avalon not other ASIC machine builders?

I assume we will see a drop in the Hash-rate as soon BitSyncom starts to deliver, means a good part of the current unknown hashing power could be caused by machines from batch 2/3.

Base on current status，you should pray the diff will not more than 5 mil when you receive batch#3. Sorry, should be no more than 10mil.

Actually it's important where you ordered from. If you ordered on the Avalon-Asic.com website (BitSyncom copyright) and paid by Bitcoin with Bitpay as Payment provider to BitSyncom, you will have a contract with a business registered in U.S.. By this the U.S Laws/State Laws are applicable the company is registered . As customer you already fulfilled your part of the contract (payment), and waiting for the company to fulfill their part (product delivery). As I'm not a lawyer, I don't know every detail (but should be easy to investigate on), but in the general you have to write a letter with a deadline(7-14days??) for the delivery, if they can't keep the deadline you can request the refund with a deadline. If they don't refund in a reasonable time, you would probably need to write 1-2 exhortations. If they still don't react you can claim your case at the court responsible for the company. If you don't write them at all, you accept the current state. They have no duty to inform you about the delay. There are also some interesting points like customs. I'm surprised that people in U.S order from a U.S company paying customs without a word. Isn't it that in such a case the company needs to inform you about that fees for customs before you place the order on their website? Only then it would be legit. Otherwise they have no right to let you pay customs as you ordered from a U.S. company and by that it means you don't need to care where/how they import the products. It goes even further that in general the importer is responsible that the devices distributes on the local market, need to fulfill the regulations of the country for safety, and so on. However if you order from a foreign company, you are the importer and the duty is yours. In the current situation you can just write a official letter by yourself or a lawyer, or just wait, pray and hope.
 

#3 will arrive eventually. We just have to check when #2 delivering is ended
Do we know how many #2 have delivered until now?
Don't wait to mine with #3 with diff less than 2mil

please please please!