Topic: Avalon batch [3] countdown! - page 40. (Read 56674 times)

There could very easily be new silent players in the market with their own chip tech (like Asic Miner except hidden among the major pools or among a number of their own private pools).

At a market price of $100USD per 1 BTC, Bitcoin mining is a $180M+ year business.  If you could own 1/3 of the total hash power (like Asic Miner)... you could easily spend $10M in private R&D and production and make back $25M conservatively.

There is a lot of money to be made... and it ain't gonna be made by the small fries when there is this much profit potential.

The thing is, if a B3 Avalon can't ROI then nothing will from now on, ever. Even klondikes which are ~3x price efficient won't work because on your estimates the difficulty will be 30000000000000000000. But then if difficulty is so high, why is the hash rate increasing? Why would anyone be buying new hardware if it won't pay for itself.

Paradox. You can't have it both ways.

Please have a look on hash rate increasing trend and estimated difficulty next time.
Do you really have confidence that you will receive Avalon batch#3 in 2 weeks?

I wrote I assume, and that's based on previous observations like drops in hashrate shortly before before people claim to got their devices or tracking information. However I have anyway strong doubts that BitSyncom is honest. But take a look by your own, I know you can read Chinese so read the following post and check the date it was written http://www.openmobilefree.net/?p=1361 , afterwards read the newsletter from them with the subject "a Much Needed Update", follow the link with the pictures http://avalon-asic.us5.list-manage.com/track/click?u=238a9ecd2e5192e3cd3ace26d&id=29186a15cc&e=c781992f8a . Now say me, how it can be "THEIR" facility? It's clearly a supplier, so why are they posting pictures of a supplier and claiming it as their facility, whats about their SMT Line? It smells fishy!
You asked some post ago what we can do. Find out whats true would be a beginning.

even if the difficulty would rise to 25 mil, batch #3 should be BE in two months.

I was not meant to persuade you to stand with me.
I just want to show the status to all the people who ordered batch#3 machines.
In fact, I also ordered batch#2 and till now I still not seen my machine. It was firstly said shipped in March, and then April, and now is June already!

I stand by my statement...

... but other than selling your pre-order, Avalon is still the best option available.

Yes, Avalon's hasn't met their projected time lines.  And yes, difficulty is rising very fast.
Mining is risky.  You need to be on the bleeding edge to make ROI.

If you really feel strongly that you aren't going to make your ROI, then sell you pre-order.
People still believe B3 will return more than 100BTC.  If you are concerned about your pre-order... sell it for 102BTC (to cover Jon's escrow) and get out.

I am a bit of a risk taker and don't have much fiat caught up in this (though a substantial amount of BTC --- all B3 orders are significant orders).
I am willing to let it ride and put my trust in Avalon for another 30 days.  Otherwise you might see one or two pre-order B3s being listed by in the marketplace.

Determine what your pain threshold is... pull the trigger on action when you hit it.

Just my .0002BTC

Look at the hashing power and difficulty now. Do you really think you can get your payment back when you got your batch#3? Come on, wake up!

I don't think Butterfly Labs tactics are appropriate yet.

And who else would you go with? 
What are your options?

KNC? ==>  Orsoc is looking for ASIC engineers... October seems aggressive.
BFL? ==> Order now?! You have to be kidding me.  Wait behind 40,000 orders -- 2014
Metabank ==> are they legit? Trust in an exporter?  August to October.  Do you think  you won't get your B3 before August?

It is nice to see that there are options out there, but right now Avalon is still pushing more hashing power out to customers than anyone else. 

Lets just hope they ship batch 3 before the raw chips.  Otherwise people will be hashing with B3 clones before we get our official versions, and I think it would be safe to say that the probability of negative ROI over the course of a year is very high.

How do you know the unknown hashing power is Avalon not other ASIC machine builders?

I assume we will see a drop in the Hash-rate as soon BitSyncom starts to deliver, means a good part of the current unknown hashing power could be caused by machines from batch 2/3.

Base on current status，you should pray the diff will not more than 5 mil when you receive batch#3. Sorry, should be no more than 10mil.

Actually it's important where you ordered from. If you ordered on the Avalon-Asic.com website (BitSyncom copyright) and paid by Bitcoin with Bitpay as Payment provider to BitSyncom, you will have a contract with a business registered in U.S.. By this the U.S Laws/State Laws are applicable the company is registered . As customer you already fulfilled your part of the contract (payment), and waiting for the company to fulfill their part (product delivery). As I'm not a lawyer, I don't know every detail (but should be easy to investigate on), but in the general you have to write a letter with a deadline(7-14days??) for the delivery, if they can't keep the deadline you can request the refund with a deadline. If they don't refund in a reasonable time, you would probably need to write 1-2 exhortations. If they still don't react you can claim your case at the court responsible for the company. If you don't write them at all, you accept the current state. They have no duty to inform you about the delay. There are also some interesting points like customs. I'm surprised that people in U.S order from a U.S company paying customs without a word. Isn't it that in such a case the company needs to inform you about that fees for customs before you place the order on their website? Only then it would be legit. Otherwise they have no right to let you pay customs as you ordered from a U.S. company and by that it means you don't need to care where/how they import the products. It goes even further that in general the importer is responsible that the devices distributes on the local market, need to fulfill the regulations of the country for safety, and so on. However if you order from a foreign company, you are the importer and the duty is yours. In the current situation you can just write a official letter by yourself or a lawyer, or just wait, pray and hope.
 

#3 will arrive eventually. We just have to check when #2 delivering is ended
Do we know how many #2 have delivered until now?
Don't wait to mine with #3 with diff less than 2mil

please please please!

I am not in US. It's difficult to go the legal way.
If somebody in US has the same feeling as me, could you help us?
I believe we should not to wait any more as the mining difficulty is going rocket high.

Indeed its a sad thread! However I don't have any hope that BitSyncom will provide something like customer support in the near future. We ordered a Batch 3 Avalon because we thought they are trustful and will ship on May 5 like announced, we even agreed to their super customer unfriendly bullshit terms. They don't provide any explanations for the delays, any new shipping dates, don't answers to customers from Batch 1 that didn't received their machines, partially deliver used machines(dust from long term use inside), don't respond to tickets, don't respond in this forum, don't provide any hotline or address so that customers could reach them. On the other hand side, they set up some very bold rules. They accepted for Chinese customers payments in RMB, if they doesn't receive the payment during 2-3 days, they claimed to refunded only 70% of the total price and would not accept your order, that's a cost above 1500USD for a refund at a 3 module machine. If you look at all of that, its a mess. As I listened to Yifu's speech at the Bitcom, he made an impression of a nice guy. Afterwards I took a deeper look at the facts we know and tried to map it to the things he said. I got a feeling that he he couldn't say anything about the real situation. I assume this mass is not his fault, but actually it could be possible that his team is a reason for a lot of problems. They could use the machines for mining, and try to make as much money as possible for themself. As Yifu tried to make some pressure on them to deliver, they started to damage the machines and created more troubles. From what we know, the box of the damaged Avalon's was in good shape, the box was not opened during shipping, so who should have done that if not an insider? All the talk about the good attitudes of his team could be a appeal to them to get back on the right track. The majority of people in China want just to make a lot of money as fast as possible, fortunately it does not count for all. However, to blame his own team would not help and could make the situation worse. He is not on side so that he could supervise the operation, so actually it's not in his hand, even he is responsible for.
So what can we do? Not much, we deal with a company that is just a mailbox. The only way you could try is the legal way. Write a letter to their registered address, use the U.S. Laws that apply for companies doing business inside the U.S, that selling products over the internet. Try to get a refund in this way, they terms are invalid if they are against U.S Laws. For a single person it would not make too much sense, just if you have put a lot of money into it, or you can engage a lawyer together with others. Maybe you even will receive your unit till there is any visible result from this case. However, just to pray and hope that BitSyncom will have   compassion seems the best way for the moment.

For the hard way, here is the company data:
Company Name:    BITSYNCOM LLC
Status:    Active
Filing Date:    09/27/2012
Entity Type:    Foreign Limited-Liability Company
File Number:    4301553
Filing State:    New York (NY)
Qualifying State:    Nevada (NV)
Company Age:    9 Months
Principal Address:    
C/O Business Filings Incorporated 187 Wolf Road,
Suite 101
Albany, NY 12205

For the record, Batch #1 machines never made 5000% ROI within 1 week.

It took about 10 to 15 days for a Batch #1 to break even and with increasing difficulty, the daily payouts went down drastically since. But Batch #1 had the early bird advantage. A Batch #1 machine up to date generated about BTC 360.

The Batch #3 will be more likely be associated with a different kind of bird, perhaps the Dodo.

If you look at the potential for Batch #3, at future difficulty, the daily revenue will be much lower than anybody could have anticipated.

By the way Tempt, care to disclose if you have skin in the game? Do you have Batch #2 or Batch #3 on order?

They have right to complain. They paid more than batch#1 with shipping time announced to 5 May. Its already month late, and not even batch#2 delivered.

Why are you all so butthurt? Stop complaining about them. You have no right to make 5000% ROI within 1 week like Batch 1. You just bought a product, it will be delivered some time, your ROI will still be good.
Stop being greedy or just sell your preorder in the forum.