Topic: back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak. (Read 696 times)

I've seen here and there ideas that we may go to 30k-40k or even lower, but I personally think that they're overly pessimistic and don't take correctly into account the money inflow via ETF.
I see the 40k-50k a good range, although it may not be kept all the time (going off in both direction).

I've seen an interesting post that I feel it goes here.

not saying this at all.
match us to 2016  not 2014

and we do have the Etf factor
the ordinal factor
the lower penalty for a huge mine to lower hash rate and raise in within a 2 week period to drive fees up.

so do we continue in a 40-50k slot till 1/2 ing I think we do.

This is an asset, anything can happen in its market, which calls for caution and for us not to be too trusting about anything. We shouldn't, not for a pattern, not for a history and not even your most trusted ideas, they can all fail because the market is dynamic, surprising and it is not centralised, it is only being participated by many and will decide haphazardly at times to the dismay of people. Bitcoin started well more than a decade ago and had a very good positive pattern and history that made it move in multiples to the extent that people were astonished, but as we progress now, I believe that we will see some kind of shift of actions, in which Bitcoin might disappoint a lot of people, so we should get set for it.

The first surprise which is a deviation from what usually happens was when the market moved strongly upward due to ETF news and headlines, and you think this can't have a lasting issue on the coin over time? As harmless as it might seem, it might alter a lot since halving was what people always knew to cause huge impacts like that but another thing had caused it, it could cause a twist in the market psychology which many might not be prepared for. Although I do not know if the present decline can persist, but the fact remains that we are in the short-term bear market, and it may escalate more than how we expect it. So, the OP could be right or wrong, after all, we are only speculating. Nonetheless, with what I see now, Bitcoin might hit $40,243, if not $40,000. A break of those levels could be catastrophic for the coin. And of course, we should know that the ETF optimism has been dashed when it comes to the price response to it, we should just accept it and continue to work with the market as we see it live.

We are not even at half of the month and a lot of things can happen. This may be a pretty much expected bear trap, but somewhat oddly placed (I expected it before the ETF announcements).
I would give it some time - until the end of this month - before getting a conclusion. If the price still goes downwards it's a nice opportunity to buy, if it starts going up... it may go fast!
The chance to end the month still on a positive trend is pretty good.

Nice thread you got going here, @philipma1957!

Looking back at 2017, I have no idea why it was so bullish, especially after April or so: 20X in 8-9 mo.
One possibility is that bitcoin did not succumb to "corporate" interests and did not (in the main branch) implement the much bigger blocks. There was a fork, but a clear majority went against people like Circle/Coinbase/Bitmain. This reinforced bitcoin "independence" and probably caused an increase in perceived value.

Looking at now: exactly the opposite had happened. Bitcoin is now a part of the tradfi system through which we should expect larger money flows, in eventuality.
This suggests, that instead of acceleration, bitcoin price curve would decelerate, in my opinion, to maybe 30% or at the absolute maximum, 40% a year (on average).
30% in 5 years from the $49K local maximum would mean about $181K by Jan 2029 (market cap of roughly 3.8 tril).
40% would mean about $263K (total market cap roughly 5.5 tril or 46% of gold).
I don't see 500K in 2025, but I did not see 20K in 2017 either  

EDIT: btw, gold did about 5X in 7 years after the ETF approval. As bitcoin is "faster", it can do the same 5X in less than 7, so a 5 years "number" seems reasonable to me. 7 years (in Jan 2031) is the longest time for bitcoin to 5X to about 240-250K that I can envision.

Are you saying that we are waiting for two months of decline before prices stabilize before bitcoin halving, exactly as happened in 2014? If this happens, it is closer to a 50% correction, which may take us back to 28k ~ 32k. If this happens, it will be bad for everyone who bet that the price will rise with ETFs.

I hope that we'll be getting news that will drive the prices down more because I don't want to buy bitcoin at this price right now and it's a pain for me to let my fiat stay like that, my DCA doesn't cut it anymore because the money that I'm getting from my salary is just continuously coming in, the bills are paid and the necessities are all good but the leftover money is just sitting there menacingly tempting me to spend on stuff that I don't need.

we did get to 48.9k

well lets see the next few months.

So we got to 42.3k a few days late. around dec 4

do we go to 48.1k 8 or 9 days late. we did top 47.1k today.

If this is due to FED then we expect Bitcoin to go further up in 2024 as FED signals three cuts in 2024. Further decline in interest rate will boost investment options like Bitcoin or stock market. We have halving also coming up, so chances are we see some huge surge in Bitcoin price next year.

It is back up due to good fed news also the market went to a new ATH .  So we may yet get to my predicted 48k+

After pumping, there will be a correction and that has often happened in the past. So when the price yesterday pumped up to $44k, now it is correction time and this is a small correction. The current price is still at $41k but is increasing little by little. Maybe after this, there will be another pump.

That's why we must always be prepared for whatever happens. And because we are at the end of the year, there may be a rather big correction. But hopefully, at the end of the year, there will be a surprise regarding the price increase.

Hopefully, by the end of the year, Bitcoin's price can touch above $45k, although we don't know if that will actually happen or if there will be a dump like yesterday. But after the halving, there will be an increase in the price of Bitcoin. Maybe later there will be a long rally that we have been waiting for.

Continues pump is very rare in cryptocurrency market and it cannot subsist up until halving and slight dump will surely take place. You will have experience that bitcoin hit the value of 44k$ after which it slightly reduces to 43k$ and now it is 41k$ which means that market is facing slight dump.

This dump is not a serious situation but it is going to ready for big pump in coming year. This year the bitcoin will touch 45k$ and we will examine different worth from upper value to lower value till April which means that market cannot stand with a single value always.

Yes, that's also another scenario that after hitting $45k then we might see some corrections. But so far price has a support at $43k-$44k. So we will see what is going to be the top of this bullish wave that we are seeing.

So there is a potential to reach $48k as you have predicted, or go on correction, at least in the $40k'ish.

Either case this year is really good for us and we no longer have any black swan events like last year.

Currently we have gone through quite serious issues such as CZ's withdrawal due to allegations made by the SEC, but we see that the market is responding stably and unlike before, if there was bad news, Bitcoin would immediately go down and vice versa.
Is it possible that there are so many people buying bitcoin that a party can use the fud and fomo strategy like before?

Well we got close to 45k.

then dropped.

time will tell.

I would be really happy for it continue these small pumps, then stabilising for a bit then going up again. Feels like resistance is being built for the future. I do wonder too have miners stopped selling and are hoarding a bit before the halving. 48k by Mar tho Phil sounds more realistic , but who knows maybe 3/15 might be a better day

From the open post

"If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months.

35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1.       close as  we were around 38.8 k on the first and now  39.5k

42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1."

opinons and guesses?
We are close to my opening post

I do not think that there are that many coins that are waiting to enter the market, it just doesn't feel like a million would be realistic approach. Plus, the market is already accumulating a lot, there are just companies with thousands and thousands of bitcoins, and they may enter the market if they want to, but we all know that it is not going to end up with something that could change it in the end.

Hopefully, it could reach to a point where we could see something that could change things in the end. I believe that we could end up with a situation that could be a lot more important on the long run, and at this moment we are looking at something that won't be changing anytime soon when we reach that higher price. I get that some people do expect it to change a lot, but I bet that it won't have that type of drastic change all that quickly, we could see some drops here and there but the increases will be a lot more common if you ask me for sure.

OBV indicator shows volume has been enough recently for us to continue upwards however we can still see that most of the trade volume was at the beginning of this move above 30k.   To check back properly on that with a pullback is alot safer, I think some will say it can happen now or later with more drama at a higher price so its better for it to occur now.