back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak. - page 2.

ultrloa

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on November 08, 2023, 09:11:36 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2023, 08:32:20 PM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on November 08, 2023, 08:24:01 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2023, 07:52:56 PM

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

I noticed in your posts that you're generally optimistic rather than pessimistic. I'm not saying you're not realistic, of course. You definitely have bases in your predictions, not to mention that you've been in this game for quite a long while already.

I have a question based on your assessment. Do you see a new ATH on or before the halving? Or if it comes a bit late, still around the halving date? If so, then are we going to surpass $100,000 within 2024 alone?

Dec 2024 or Nov 2024 Ath and may touch 100k in those months.

And as good as that is 2025 will bring numbers that most are too afraid to say.

If you look at any of my posts I am always mostly bullish but never a raging bull. Much more like Ferdinand
the bull.

Yes I noticed that too. You're like a tamed bull. Lol.

I'm of the suspicion that $100,000 is an attractive selling target for everybody regardless if they bought today or at $25,000, $40,000, or even higher. It is this suspicion that makes me think of taking profit before it happens, perhaps around $90,000. The selling pressure at $100,000 might be too strong. There might be a heavy correction which immediately follows after hitting that price. As an implication, 2025 might not be what you suggested.

If we base on past events yes we could really see that happening so we really better know when to secure our profit since its hard for us to encounter another bearish season after it pump for a new all time high since for sure we will regret again that we never learn our lesson. So $100k is quiet huge amount target to take our profit but I would also consider how much price it would provably reach and by month of December whatever price it will take will surely take profit since I'm also speculating a dump after that.

Will stick to my plan no matter what so hopefully we can see more great things and people should stick to their plan set and always remember that any amount of profit is always good rather than we lose for expecting to much since its really dumb decision for us to take huge mistakes when opportunity is knocking on our doors.

wiss19

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I wouldn't really assume that the exact same thing could happen, 2015 was a very low period so getting that high wasn't that hard, now requires much more money. But I also think that the increase will happen one way or another, maybe not that much, maybe not that quickly, but it will certainly go up, I am sure of that. I think it's quite important to realize that bitcoin is something that we could benefit a lot from if given enough time, we need to just arrange something that needs to be done properly.

We can't rush into these things, so we need to end up doing something that needs to be a lot better, and that could be an important deal in the end, and must be given enough attention and care and time for it to bloom properly.

BenCodie

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2023, 07:52:56 PM

Quote from: BenCodie on November 08, 2023, 06:16:12 PM

While it'd great to see so much optimism in the first page I think it would be setting the bar too high to expect 2015-like gains, or gains from any other halving for that matter. Yes institutions are involved now, but there is much more to it, such as:
- Diminishing returns
- More BTC distributed and in circulation
- More profit motivated holders (institutions, hedge funds, etc)
The above could be a good or bad thing. The first two are something to think about though. Returns achieved in a 2015 Bitcoin ecosystem and expecting the same in today's much larger ecosystem is not the best bar to set.

At the same time, seasonality does exist so I don't doubt it will be a positive few months during November, Jan, maybe even Feb too.

It funny you skipped December.

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

Haha yes i did indeed. Not intentional, though November & December are historically quite similar in most markets, being that there is usually quite a bit of positive activity. In terms of the speculation maybe you're right, but it is anyones guess. The market has a habit of taking us by surprise, especially when it comes to bitcoin and crypto.

Some things I will say is about the halving...
The halving itself is usually a non event. The lead up to it can generate some excitement, but historically, the effects have taken full effect on the market in the 6-18 months after the halving.

What will be most interesting is the trajectory between now and roughly September/October next year. We should also note that there are several outflows occurring, FTX (if they settle) and Mtgox namely. Their settlements will be something to keep an eye on. Yes we have heard about mtgox over and over for a while, though the deadline for repayments is now October 2024. It will be interesting to see how that effects the market.

adaseb

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There is some speculation by some Bloomberg analyst that if sec wants to approve the etfs they will need to do it within the next 8 days starting tomorrow. No idea what this means because he also says that if they don’t approve it within this time period then he is 90% sure it will be approved by Jan 10 2024.

The fact that he put Jan 10 2024 and not sometime in Jan 2024 makes it seem it is some deadline but which deadline I don’t know exactly. Should be an interesting week.

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2023, 08:32:20 PM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on November 08, 2023, 08:24:01 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2023, 07:52:56 PM

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

I noticed in your posts that you're generally optimistic rather than pessimistic. I'm not saying you're not realistic, of course. You definitely have bases in your predictions, not to mention that you've been in this game for quite a long while already.

I have a question based on your assessment. Do you see a new ATH on or before the halving? Or if it comes a bit late, still around the halving date? If so, then are we going to surpass $100,000 within 2024 alone?

Dec 2024 or Nov 2024 Ath and may touch 100k in those months.

And as good as that is 2025 will bring numbers that most are too afraid to say.

If you look at any of my posts I am always mostly bullish but never a raging bull. Much more like Ferdinand
the bull.

Yes I noticed that too. You're like a tamed bull. Lol.

I'm of the suspicion that $100,000 is an attractive selling target for everybody regardless if they bought today or at $25,000, $40,000, or even higher. It is this suspicion that makes me think of taking profit before it happens, perhaps around $90,000. The selling pressure at $100,000 might be too strong. There might be a heavy correction which immediately follows after hitting that price. As an implication, 2025 might not be what you suggested.

OgNasty

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I think when it comes to comparing historical norms, this cycle is going to be more than most people are expecting just because of the FTX fraud and how it depressed market prices for Bitcoin artificially. The true extent of this won’t probably be realized until 2025, but I think it’s likely to show up in larger than expected gains the entire way there.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on November 08, 2023, 08:24:01 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2023, 07:52:56 PM

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

I noticed in your posts that you're generally optimistic rather than pessimistic. I'm not saying you're not realistic, of course. You definitely have bases in your predictions, not to mention that you've been in this game for quite a long while already.

I have a question based on your assessment. Do you see a new ATH on or before the halving? Or if it comes a bit late, still around the halving date? If so, then are we going to surpass $100,000 within 2024 alone?

Dec 2024 or Nov 2024 Ath and may touch 100k in those months.

And as good as that is 2025 will bring numbers that most are too afraid to say.

If you look at any of my posts I am always mostly bullish but never a raging bull. Much more like Ferdinand
the bull.

Fundamentals Of

sr. member

Activity: 2380

Merit: 366

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 08, 2023, 07:52:56 PM

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

I noticed in your posts that you're generally optimistic rather than pessimistic. I'm not saying you're not realistic, of course. You definitely have bases in your predictions, not to mention that you've been in this game for quite a long while already.

I have a question based on your assessment. Do you see a new ATH on or before the halving? Or if it comes a bit late, still around the halving date? If so, then are we going to surpass $100,000 within 2024 alone?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: BenCodie on November 08, 2023, 06:16:12 PM

While it'd great to see so much optimism in the first page I think it would be setting the bar too high to expect 2015-like gains, or gains from any other halving for that matter. Yes institutions are involved now, but there is much more to it, such as:
- Diminishing returns
- More BTC distributed and in circulation
- More profit motivated holders (institutions, hedge funds, etc)
The above could be a good or bad thing. The first two are something to think about though. Returns achieved in a 2015 Bitcoin ecosystem and expecting the same in today's much larger ecosystem is not the best bar to set.

At the same time, seasonality does exist so I don't doubt it will be a positive few months during November, Jan, maybe even Feb too.

It funny you skipped December.

I still say 42k Nov 30-Dec 1
and 48k Dec 31- Jan 1

some profits taken in Jan brings us to 40k and then upwards and onwards to a new ATH new the ½ ing.

BenCodie

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1037

While it'd great to see so much optimism in the first page I think it would be setting the bar too high to expect 2015-like gains, or gains from any other halving for that matter. Yes institutions are involved now, but there is much more to it, such as:
- Diminishing returns
- More BTC distributed and in circulation
- More profit motivated holders (institutions, hedge funds, etc)
The above could be a good or bad thing. The first two are something to think about though. Returns achieved in a 2015 Bitcoin ecosystem and expecting the same in today's much larger ecosystem is not the best bar to set.

At the same time, seasonality does exist so I don't doubt it will be a positive few months during November, Jan, maybe even Feb too.

aoluain

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Activity: 2436

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When Bitcoin was valued at ~$1 there were a lot of people who couldnt comprehend the
value going to ~$100 let alone $1000. I believe Bitcoin could be entering a new phase which
will take the market into a new range which will surprise a lot more people.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: aoluain on November 06, 2023, 04:16:51 PM

I read/heard somewhere that an internal memo was leaked from Blackrock who would
advise that their clients should have something like 83.5% of their portfolio in Bitcoin ^{or maybe "crypto"?}!

If that is the case any coins sold at $500k would be snapped up and never seen again
for a very long time all depending on an ETF approval of course.

There are a lot of reports out there some conjured up to make sales etc. but I definitely
think there is massive demand for Bitcoin from those who want an asset manager to look
after it for them and who have no interest in buying a Trezor and minding their seed phrase!

So that alone should fuel philipma1957's projection to $500k regardless of the 2015 comparison.

I have a feeling we may soar far more then the 100-145K

I even think maybe 500k is low so I am pushing very hard at this for now.

I am glad to see a few are thinking what I am thinking.

aoluain

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I read/heard somewhere that an internal memo was leaked from Blackrock who would
advise that their clients should have something like 83.5% of their portfolio in Bitcoin ^{or maybe "crypto"?}!

If that is the case any coins sold at $500k would be snapped up and never seen again
for a very long time all depending on an ETF approval of course.

There are a lot of reports out there some conjured up to make sales etc. but I definitely
think there is massive demand for Bitcoin from those who want an asset manager to look
after it for them and who have no interest in buying a Trezor and minding their seed phrase!

So that alone should fuel philipma1957's projection to $500k regardless of the 2015 comparison.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Lucius on November 06, 2023, 05:51:08 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 05, 2023, 10:18:41 AM

If we shot to 500k like I say by Dec 31 2025.

The first blocks that have been sitting for over 13 years should get movement.

If they don’t I would be very surprised.

I would think there are over 1,000,000 pre 2011 coins untouched

at 500,000 a coin that is more than 500 billion dollars.

I would think maybe 5% would sell off.

We can only speculate about that, although only then we will see how much BTC was actually lost in the first years, but I still think that there are a lot more than 1 million BTC that may be waiting for the right moment to enter the market if we take into account the speculation that Satoshi mined around 1 million BTC by himself. Also, in the first reward era, the reward was 50 BTC per block, which means that 50% of all BTC was mined in the first 4 years.

Of course, we should not doubt that these long-term holders are not intelligent people who will not exclusively use CEX, but will look for some other methods such as OTC or DEX in order to prevent the influence on the price.

Yeah lets say you have an addy with 100 coins which become 500k each.

This addy is worth 50 million. Wealthy people could cut deals off the books. Hey Joe give me an addy send the 100 coins. New guy has the coins and deal is done. This would not hurt the price at all.

Lucius

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 05, 2023, 10:18:41 AM

If we shot to 500k like I say by Dec 31 2025.

The first blocks that have been sitting for over 13 years should get movement.

If they don’t I would be very surprised.

I would think there are over 1,000,000 pre 2011 coins untouched

at 500,000 a coin that is more than 500 billion dollars.

I would think maybe 5% would sell off.

We can only speculate about that, although only then we will see how much BTC was actually lost in the first years, but I still think that there are a lot more than 1 million BTC that may be waiting for the right moment to enter the market if we take into account the speculation that Satoshi mined around 1 million BTC by himself. Also, in the first reward era, the reward was 50 BTC per block, which means that 50% of all BTC was mined in the first 4 years.

Of course, we should not doubt that these long-term holders are not intelligent people who will not exclusively use CEX, but will look for some other methods such as OTC or DEX in order to prevent the influence on the price.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Lucius on November 05, 2023, 07:15:47 AM

$500k for 1 BTC in less than 2 years can only be realized if that long-awaited spot BTC ETF is really a game-changer and then in synergy with the halving effect results in a massive bull run. However, we should not ignore the fact that the price is formed not only by increased demand, but also by increased supply, because for many long-term holders, the next bull run will very likely be the exit point.

All those millions of BTC that are speculated to be irretrievably lost could flood the market because when we finally reach the zone of six-digit numbers, few will resist dumping most of their long-held BTC. Numbers change, but people and their behavior are more or less the same and predictable.

If we shot to 500k like I say by Dec 31 2025.

The first blocks that have been sitting for over 13 years should get movement.

If they don’t I would be very surprised.

I would think there are over 1,000,000 pre 2011 coins untouched

at 500,000 a coin that is more than 500 billion dollars.

I would think maybe 5% would sell off.

Lucius

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$500k for 1 BTC in less than 2 years can only be realized if that long-awaited spot BTC ETF is really a game-changer and then in synergy with the halving effect results in a massive bull run. However, we should not ignore the fact that the price is formed not only by increased demand, but also by increased supply, because for many long-term holders, the next bull run will very likely be the exit point.

All those millions of BTC that are speculated to be irretrievably lost could flood the market because when we finally reach the zone of six-digit numbers, few will resist dumping most of their long-held BTC. Numbers change, but people and their behavior are more or less the same and predictable.

michellee

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on November 05, 2023, 05:20:18 AM

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on November 05, 2023, 03:00:54 AM

Quote from: jasonjm on November 05, 2023, 02:43:47 AM

I think we might not see a repeat of the 2015 - 2017 cycle because of the present BTC market cap. It is not realistic to compare the similar price action/ % gain. Yes, we might see similar trends, but with limited gain.

I think the same, it is normal that in the early years, the returns were stratospheric and as time has gone by, with the market cap we have now, they tend to be much more moderate. I would like to see the $500,000 that the OP is talking about for this cycle happen, but I see it as almost impossible.

$500,000? And for this cycle only? I also think that's next to impossible. If we stretch the time frame though, let's say 5 years to 10 years from now, $500,000 is more possible. But even with that time frame, I can't imagine Bitcoin reaching $500,000. I know that it could indeed happen, but it's just too high for my mind to imagine. We'd all be rich when that point comes. But this is not the only big prediction. We've heard of a million even. If so, then we should all be trying our best to stack as much sats as possible while the price is still cheap.

This could happen if there is massive adoption from many parties. That could push the price of Bitcoin to increase rapidly. But, indeed, getting a price of $500,000 is still too difficult for Bitcoin, although it is not impossible. If it is true that Bitcoin can get that price, many Bitcoin investors will become very, very rich. Those who have been struggling for a long time to collect Bitcoins are very satisfied if that happens.

Maybe for the next increase, Bitcoin price will be above $100,000-$150,000. That's what many speculators are talking about. But many also say that the price of Bitcoin could reach above $200,000. I don't think about what the next ATH will be. I'm speculating above $100,000 for this cycle for sure.

If the price of Bitcoin can exceed that figure, I am very happy because it exceeds my expectations. And it will provide huge profits again after the previous ATH. And it should be celebrated Grin

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on November 05, 2023, 03:00:54 AM

Quote from: jasonjm on November 05, 2023, 02:43:47 AM

I think we might not see a repeat of the 2015 - 2017 cycle because of the present BTC market cap. It is not realistic to compare the similar price action/ % gain. Yes, we might see similar trends, but with limited gain.

I think the same, it is normal that in the early years, the returns were stratospheric and as time has gone by, with the market cap we have now, they tend to be much more moderate. I would like to see the $500,000 that the OP is talking about for this cycle happen, but I see it as almost impossible.

$500,000? And for this cycle only? I also think that's next to impossible. If we stretch the time frame though, let's say 5 years to 10 years from now, $500,000 is more possible. But even with that time frame, I can't imagine Bitcoin reaching $500,000. I know that it could indeed happen, but it's just too high for my mind to imagine. We'd all be rich when that point comes. But this is not the only big prediction. We've heard of a million even. If so, then we should all be trying our best to stack as much sats as possible while the price is still cheap.

Don Pedro Dinero

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Quote from: jasonjm on November 05, 2023, 02:43:47 AM

I think we might not see a repeat of the 2015 - 2017 cycle because of the present BTC market cap. It is not realistic to compare the similar price action/ % gain. Yes, we might see similar trends, but with limited gain.

I think the same, it is normal that in the early years, the returns were stratospheric and as time has gone by, with the market cap we have now, they tend to be much more moderate. I would like to see the $500,000 that the OP is talking about for this cycle happen, but I see it as almost impossible.

Topic: back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak. - page 2. (Read 771 times)