back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak. - page 4.

Lida93

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 01, 2023, 06:35:53 PM

2015 Sept up 2.82%
2015 Oct. up 31.92%
2015 Nov up 21.44%
2015 Dec up 13.75%

here we are 8 years later

2023 Sept 3.95%
2023 Oct 28.51%
2023 Nov ?
2023 Dec ?

8 years is not 8 days so it's hard been that we can't really be sure about similar figures resurfacing in the remaining two months of Nov and Dec of this year. However, what pumps my heart with optimism and that of other bitcoiners about the bitcoin price either retaining similar figures or going above the 2015 % within these two months is the proposed approval of the bitcoin spot ETF by 2024 that have been of positive influence to BTC price with both new individual and institutional investors investing their way into the market, it's therefore my expectation that bitcoin price would exceed those percentage by the end of this two months.

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 01, 2023, 10:24:12 PM

we could easily surpass 500k by dec 2025.

With how long you've been doing this, I'm surprised you'd say that. Haven't we learned anything from what happened this cycle? Everyone was looking at stats and charts and predicting stratospheric prices for this very cycle, which have not come true. $150K was one low prediction for this cycle out of many, and look how that turned out. Dan Held was already predicting a maximum of $0.5M million for this cycle. We also had very sophisticated models such as the S2F model giving predictions that were astounding and when the price falsified the theory the author insisted on continuing to make a fool of himself by reformulating the theory instead of considering it false.

That said, I hope you are right or even short and we hit $2M per Bitcoin the next cycle. That would do me great.

philipma1957

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I am inclined to toss out all of the 2020-2021 rally due to the covid factor.

if we trend back to 2015-2016-2017. for 2023 -2024-2025

we could easily surpass 500k by dec 2025.

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 01, 2023, 06:35:53 PM

If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months.

35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1
42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1.

opinons and guesses?

Yeah, it could be around that price range and I think that's where the numbers are being predicted as well by December or early next year, like $40,000-$50,000. And so if the pattern continues maybe just a little +/- but still around that ball park number.

And with that, we should be expecting the economics picture of Bitcoin going to improvement in the next two months. Bullish sentiments is still up in the air and we all know that it's hard to go against that. So we will see and hopefully the pattern is still valid for this 2023.

albert0bsd

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 01, 2023, 06:35:53 PM

will we repeat this?

Well, this become a little more predictable every halfing and maybe the euphoria for bitcoin will be a little more conservative than before. But since this is still speculative there is no way to know, 8 years ago a lot of my acquaintances and family never heard about bitcoin, this year even my mom knows that bitcoin its something to care about...

philipma1957

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2015 Sept up 2.82%
2015 Oct. up 31.92%
2015 Nov up 21.44%
2015 Dec up 13.75%

here we are 8 years later

2023 Sept 3.95%
2023 Oct 28.51%
2023 Nov ?
2023 Dec ?

I looked at the post below to come up with my 2015 to 2023 comparison.

will we repeat this?

Quote from: taufik123 on October 31, 2023, 06:47:49 PM

Quote from: fzkto on October 31, 2023, 11:15:08 AM

Quote from: BlockchainWizard on October 31, 2023, 11:10:44 AM

It's funny to see that October is the most successful month for Bitcoin. This has probably already become firmly anchored in people's minds, so that all market participants act accordingly. A self-fulfilling prophecy in that sense.

Yes, this October was no exception and bitcoin didn't just rise, it broke resistance that couldn't be broken all of 2023. But I doubt about the psychology that it happened naturally, September was also green, although it was almost always red.

Naturally or not, initially it was the effect of Cointelegraph giving invalid news about ETF acceptance that FOMO occurred and many bought Bitcoin at this time so that it broke the $30k resistance, then indeed dumped after the news was not true.
But the next effect is like a snowball that makes market conditions better and until now it is able to hold at $34k + +.

October was a green month and we are about to enter November which in the last 2 years has always shown a drastic decline.
Will the trend change?
we will see.

If we do the 2015 pattern from sept to dec we will rock 2 more months.

35000 x 1.21 = 42350 by dec 1
42350 x 1.1375 = 48173 by jan 1.

opinons and guesses?

Topic: back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak. - page 4. (Read 782 times)