There are several reasons why the 2023 Ballon d'Or will be won by Messi because he has had such a nice performance at PSG and Argentina. The reason is shown in the image below.
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Even though Messi won the world cup, I don't think his performance at PSG last season was good enough for him to be nominated for the Ballon d'Or. Most people know and think that even the world cup was rigged for him, so he didn't deserved to won it. For this reason, I can understand why most people believe that Messi deserves the award despite with the PSG poor performance at UCL last season. I think Haaland deserves to win the 2023 Ballon d'Or more than Messi because he scored more goals and won more trophies last season. The majority of people claim that Haaland is disqualified for the award because he lacks the necessary dribbling skills, but even Karim Benzema, who won it in 2022, cannot dribble as well as Messi.
Erling Haaland had an impressive season with Manchester City last season and helped the club to win their first ever treble which included their first UEFA Champions League trophy as well but in my own opinion, I don't even think he was the club's best player last season. If the Balon D'or winner should come from Manchester City, I think Kelvin De Bruyne stands a better chance of winning it.