Topic: Banned dude projects Bitcoin bounce maybe to $10k, then renewed decline to $4600 (Read 11898 times)

This extended pause and consolidation seems to be very bullish for BTC. I expect the BTC price to come back down significantly one more time to less than $7150 before the end of the month, and possibly $6900 within the next 3 days which should bring the long/short ratio down to an acceptable 1.15 (or below) so bull move can blast off to $10,000+:

https://imgur.com/a/iIPMhl9



It’s possible to come down to the lower trendline support on my chart above at ~$6100, but that seems MUCH less likely. Anything lower than that before moving higher seems very, very unlikely, but anything is possible.

Readers in the thread may also want to check out my latest blog:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@anonymint/secrets-of-bitcoin-s-dystopian-valuation-model

Stocks-to-Flows Model Provides a Plausible Reason for Coming BTC Price Acceleration:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190521t130454806z

Shitcoins serve no purpose other than to take market cap away from bitcoin. I wish they would all die, but I don't want to see everyone lose their asses either. It would be great to see everyone dump them for bitcoin and watch bitcoin hit $1m!

As @infofront is quoted below as mentioning, I also posit that altcoins lag as they always do when BTC is rising fast, as can be confirmed on the LTCBTC historical chart.

Note altcoins have been losing leverage against BTC since roughly the start of April 2019. Altcoins can lead BTC after an oversold bottom, but then they shift back to lagging again after the initial over enthusiasm. This pattern can clearly be seen on the LTCBTC chart for the prior cryptowinter.

Also note LTCBTC has been losing leverage (i.e. decelerating, as spikes are lower) over time even though it’s highly volatile (i.e. spikes), which is expected by the S/Fs model. Presumably because rate of relative acceleration on the S/Fs model between LTC and BTC has narrowed.

Thus we can expect smaller and newer altcoins of merit to have miraculous leaps up in relative value to BTC during pauses and declines in the staircase ascent of BTC depicted in my model.

People be saying stuffs like this, but later they will be the ones buying lots of altcoins and storing them and even talking about investing in new projects. I thought cryptocurrency is powered by the community right? They said the more demand the more the price goes up and the lesser the demand for it the prices goes down? So if it's that way, what makes you think then that altcoins will be going to zero when there are still a lot of people who are making use of it, or do these people just have plain hatred for altcoins? This is not the first person I'm seeing say this. Okay, I do know that there are lots of small altcoins that dies every day, but if altcoins are going to fall to zero, you should count the top 100 altcoins out of it, because those are not going down in any way.

Another comprehensive update and elaboration:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190518t002235787z

This one is important to read not only for the new insight into Bitcoin price future, but also for the extensive detail on the future of the USA and the global economy.

Here is a new posited scenario chart:

https://imgur.com/a/mb88myS

I added a more precisely computed timing, detailed scenario chart. And this is scary and also I think this is the most likely outcome. I really think we are going to $78k within this week! WTF!

I hope Last of the V8s can add this last update to his update of the update of the update of the BCTalk thread. Because this is the most shocking of the scenarios and it precisely matches (proportionally scaled) the timing and moves in 2010/2011.

I promise that is the last one.

This crazy price action coming could potentially destroy many exchanges. And the likely reason for a potential nosedive from $78,000 to $1700 as depicted on the above linked chart!

I hope I’m incorrect!

further updoot
edit:
further update of the update

I'm thinking that for it to be possible from a fundamental perspective, we'll need ETFs and shit.

Look at all the current/upcoming mainstream platforms that Joe Six-Pack will have available to trade Bitcoin on: ETFs + Bakkt + Robinhood + TD Ameritrade + E-Trade + Fidelity

At least we won't have to wait too long to find out.

I largely hope it doesn't pan out like that because it'll be virtually impossible to capitalise on it. I see little evidence of exchanges having significantly beefed up.

The longer it's been since the peak, the less keen I am on it happening again that way. I know it will all the same.

Here is the new chart which shows what should happen with the Bitcoin price from here. It is going to shock everyone because the price is headed to at least $0.4 million by roughly Q1 2020:

https://imgur.com/a/lMIIRyF

Here is a link to my blog comment post with the new chart and my written explanation of the patterns I have drawn on the original chart, which explain why John Mcafee is correct:

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

https://busy.org/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z

Would one of you (the first one to do it) please post an update to the following BCTalk thread where @infofront had posted the original chart:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.44309946

You should link to my Steemit explanation and also include a copy of the chart image directly in the post. Here a direct link to the chart image:

https://i.imgur.com/dx9G5k8.png

I written detailed analysis in my protonmail to several of you. But some of you are not in my trusted discussion group.


Bitcoin beginning a parabolic moonshot! Altcoins may crash now until later this year!



Here are the various projections I have for the new ATH price around March 2020:

1. $1154 ÷ $260 × $19666 = $87287     ($260 #3 on April 10, 2013)
2. $1154 ÷ $63 × $3122 = $57187       ($63 long-winded bottom after #3 in 2013)
3. $31 ÷ $1.10 × $19666 = $554223     ($1.10 #3 on Feb 10, 2011)
4. $32 ÷ $0.70 × $3122 = $142720      ($0.70 long-winded bottom after #3 in 20131)

($1154 for #5 and #1 on Nov 30, 2013, Bitstamp, projected to early March 2020)
($32 for #5 and #1 on Jun 8, 2011, Bitstamp, projected to early March 2020)


5. Drawing a line through the #3 in 2011 through the #3 in 2013, also runs through the #5 and #1 on Nov 30, 2013. Drawing a line through the #3 in 2013 through the #3 in 2017, project to approximately $133,000 for the #5 and #1 posited to occur March 2020.

6. A Markov model predicted the volatility range for Bitcoin in 1 year between $3k (our bottom) and $82k:

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-bitcoin-price-prediction-for-2019/answer/John-Young-390

Here is some more on that:

https://medium.com/@VidrihMarko/bitcoin-2020-at-one-million-is-this-really-realistic-ca8992a23fbf

7. Let’s consider John Mcafee’s unspecified model:

https://micky.com.au/russian-economist-insists-us-sanctions-will-push-bitcoin-to-2m/

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/john-mcafee-says-point-set-technology-puts-bitcoins-price-at-least-1-million-by-end-of-2020/

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887039604846714881

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1124436476962516994

Also realize his $1 million prediction is by the end of 2020, but he not considering the volatility in the price:

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337

So crash in the price before the end of 2020 could derail his bet, even though in terms of fundamental valuation he might be correct.

But how could Mcafee be correct? Now look again at @infofront’s chart:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.44351466


And read my reply to John Mcafee:

Quote from: https://twitter.com/iamnotback/status/1126843991637409792
If that #3 – #5 (2018–2020) is extension of #1 (≤ 2010) – #3 (2017), not #1 (2014)? (c.f. linked chart)

Quote from: https://twitter.com/iamnotback/status/1126845026716094464
Notice that #1 – #2 has a less steep slope than #3 – #5, thus returning to the rate of ascent of < 2011 for the coming #5, topologically connects patterns within patterns. Nature is fractal.

Well I can't exactly keep up with Shelby Thought, but I know he keeps referring back to this chart


afaiu He's bullish for a big surprise surge very soon now. And very bearish on altcoins.

It should be before June 2010 and at $0.10 which is more evident on Kunal Sen’s chart from my prior post. Also the $100,000 expected peak price is much too high. My alternative scenario always had it at about $32,000 which agrees with both the declining spread model and the declining percentages in my table below.

So what are Shelby's thoughts on the current price level?

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:


Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840