Topic: Banned dude projects Bitcoin bounce maybe to $10k, then renewed decline to $4600 - page 3. (Read 11898 times)
August 23, 2018, 03:53:04 PM
He's already been right about the alt bear market. They don't need to go down any more to prove his point from months ago, that they were going down, hard. Most will indeed go to 0, but some are probably due for a bounce...
August 20, 2018, 04:48:10 PM
Very interesting stuff guys. I see Shelby edited his Steemit post and he now considers two alternative possibilities:
1. Bottoming now with new ATHs in 2019. That was his original idea of a possible repeat of the mid-2013 correction. In this case altcoins would not crater.
2. Down to $4600ish now, followed by either #1 above or his other scenario.
Note he apparently made those edits before @infofront’s tantalizing post in this thread.
He states in the post that the altcoins going to near 0 in 2019 is contingent on the scenario of the bottom not coming until late 2019 or early 2020. In that case, altcoins would continue to decline more than Bitcoin, on every renewed decline of Bitcoin. Altcoins have lost so much ground relative to BTC since the peak in 2017. That would continue if the bottom will not be until more than a year from now.
Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.
However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.
1. Bottoming now with new ATHs in 2019. That was his original idea of a possible repeat of the mid-2013 correction. In this case altcoins would not crater.
2. Down to $4600ish now, followed by either #1 above or his other scenario.
Note he apparently made those edits before @infofront’s tantalizing post in this thread.
Do not believe in such articles. Although the article is written good and arguments are given with facts and numbers but that does not mean that altcoins will be down to zero in 2019. That's not gonna happen.
He states in the post that the altcoins going to near 0 in 2019 is contingent on the scenario of the bottom not coming until late 2019 or early 2020. In that case, altcoins would continue to decline more than Bitcoin, on every renewed decline of Bitcoin. Altcoins have lost so much ground relative to BTC since the peak in 2017. That would continue if the bottom will not be until more than a year from now.
Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.
However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.
This is one of the most legit forecasts I've seen. There have been too many blind " 100k by 2k20!!!" forecasts that I stopped taking them seriously.
I've seen a few analyses that take into account the depreciation until the next halvening, but is bitcoin really going to gain after that? There are a lot of assumptions in this chart, namely that the cycle follows that same pattern, and more importantly that introduction of financial market tools like futures, ETFs and being considered for a major stock exchange don't have any impact on it. Statistics rarely lie though...
August 19, 2018, 01:44:37 PM
@infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart
I'd just like to make it clear that it's not actually my chart. It's from a guy on twitter.
Yes, well you get credit for distribution!
August 20, 2018, 01:06:14 PM
If Bitcoin goes to $100k+ next year
Shelby apparently thinks the highest will be $32k and he discovered that @infofront’s chart incorrectly labeled the position of the start of the first wave of cycle #1:
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever
https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-9bea6a4a5fdb
August 20, 2018, 03:47:04 AM
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z
He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.
Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)
The market is about to resume another bullish trend and the sideways trend is about to be over. Bitcoin is not going to have a bad day to the extent of falling to $4,600. I expect the $5500 to be the bottom except something very significant happen to the market. He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.
Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)
August 19, 2018, 12:05:56 PM
That's probably the closest you'll get to an altcoin reaching 0 until bitcoin itself dies from people noticing a combination of being designed to centralize and non-fungible makes it the ultimate new world order slavery system.
I see Shelby responded to you at the bottom of his post:
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-heavyd-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180819t141422240z
August 19, 2018, 01:33:13 PM
@infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart
I'd just like to make it clear that it's not actually my chart. It's from a guy on twitter.
August 19, 2018, 11:27:31 AM
Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.
However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.
However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.
Alts will be "wasteland" after reaching way higher levels as are right now. If Bitcoin goes to $100k+ next year, just like it went to new ATH at the end of 2014, that will push all alts way higher as they were 8 months ago and the Bitcoin bottom that will follow in 2020-2022 will be way over $20k. So also altcoins will be higher as was 8 months ago. This is basically most optimistic prediction I heard. Well not really. I heard many bullshit. But a most optimistic prediction that on my opinion may even happen.
August 19, 2018, 10:59:52 AM
He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.
There was one point in time where NXT was at it's lowest of bear markets and I noticed I could short it to zero using only something like 6 BTC for the hell of it (I forget if NXT even had leverage enabled - probably not but I think it did). Even though it would be an incredibly stupid idea, I almost did it anyway. That's probably the closest you'll get to an altcoin reaching 0 until bitcoin itself dies from people noticing a combination of being designed to centralize and non-fungible makes it the ultimate new world order slavery system.
August 19, 2018, 10:52:04 AM
Very interesting stuff guys. I see Shelby edited his Steemit post and he now considers two alternative possibilities:
1. Bottoming now with new ATHs in 2019. That was his original idea of a possible repeat of the mid-2013 correction. In this case altcoins would not crater.
2. Down to $4600ish now, followed by either #1 above or his other scenario.
Note he apparently made those edits before @infofront’s tantalizing post in this thread.
He states in the post that the altcoins going to near 0 in 2019 is contingent on the scenario of the bottom not coming until late 2019 or early 2020. In that case, altcoins would continue to decline more than Bitcoin, on every renewed decline of Bitcoin. Altcoins have lost so much ground relative to BTC since the peak in 2017. That would continue if the bottom will not be until more than a year from now.
Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.
However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.
1. Bottoming now with new ATHs in 2019. That was his original idea of a possible repeat of the mid-2013 correction. In this case altcoins would not crater.
2. Down to $4600ish now, followed by either #1 above or his other scenario.
Note he apparently made those edits before @infofront’s tantalizing post in this thread.
Do not believe in such articles. Although the article is written good and arguments are given with facts and numbers but that does not mean that altcoins will be down to zero in 2019. That's not gonna happen.
He states in the post that the altcoins going to near 0 in 2019 is contingent on the scenario of the bottom not coming until late 2019 or early 2020. In that case, altcoins would continue to decline more than Bitcoin, on every renewed decline of Bitcoin. Altcoins have lost so much ground relative to BTC since the peak in 2017. That would continue if the bottom will not be until more than a year from now.
Whereas, if @infofront’s scenario is the outcome which Shelby also mentioned as the alternative scenario in his post, then altcoins would rise also. Whether altcoins would rise more than BTC and regain their lost ground is not certain. He offered the declining spreads model as a reason they may not, but he also questions that declining spread model as possibly being a backward looking metric.
However, I think he is implying that even if the ATH is coming in 2019 then in that scenario we are not currently in a 2014/15 cryptowinter, and that most altcoins will be a wasteland in the next crypto winter that follows the 2019 ATH. Again refer to @infofront’s excellent and tantalizing chart to visualize that alternative scenario.
August 19, 2018, 10:36:23 AM
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z
He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.
Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)
He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.
Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)
I think he has some good analysis, i particullary agree with him on altcoins. There are too much and all will not survive in the long term. Market caps are unnaturally inflated and non existing in reality. Purge will come, when i dont know
August 19, 2018, 09:37:43 AM
$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.
This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.
As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.
This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.
As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.
And people said Bitcoin never went below its previous ATH until it did in 2015.
The markets don't care what anyone pays to mine a coin. That's the miner's problem and no one else's and I'll guess we might be shocked at how cheap it is for certain groups. Perhaps miners are in there batting away at the price but that seems like a rapid route to total ruin.
I've stopped giving a shit about the near term Bitcoin price. It'll be fine in the end. Is the $4000s possible? I don't see why not.
I don't like to compare 2013's crash with the current crash. The fundamentals were terrible. I was ready to hit ridiculously low prices after the MtGox clusterfuck debacle. Very ready to hit below the april 8 2013th peak.
But right now things are different. The fundamentals aren't a nightmare that I can see, to justify super low prices.
As far as the cost of mining theory goes, I don't know how legit the actual numbers are, however I know self fulfilling theory is very legit, and at this point the $5500 ish barrier might have become a strong enough resistance that it's take in consideration for the market. I mean look at the graph, it always bounces back.
Could we go below there? sure. Would it break this theory? not really, unless we have a sustained period of price below the supposed cost of mining. If it happens then I guess the theory was wrong. But if we spend a week or so and then it quickly pumps back , it wouldn't really disprove it in my book.
August 19, 2018, 08:49:04 AM
Inclined to agree, but only when dealing with the top-tier or even second-tier alts.
I question that logic, because if no one is using those altcoins or even buying them, they can go to zero as a practical matter. Even if a coin fell to 1 satoshi, if there are no buyers, there's no chance for a person to sell what he has. Take a look at the Yobit 1-satoshi graveyard. Put in a sell order on one of the crappiest coins there, and that order might sit there forever, never getting executed.
I wasn't exactly referring to the absolute bottom of the crypto junkyard.
I was more referring to the visible top tier crypto currencies that you can actually short through one of the multiple platforms offering these trading features, which is why I said I dare anyone to short them. The top 10 crypto currencies are heavily tied to Bitcoin's price and more often than not don't move on their own, unless they get pumped out of nothing, but these pumps never last long since pumpers will cash out and tank the market down again.
People were initially heavily speculating about BCash to become worthless, but that hasn't really happened. With so much trading features available nowadays everyone can put their money where their mouth is and short them, but no one seems to be in the mood for that.
August 19, 2018, 06:42:58 AM
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z
He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.
Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)
He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.
Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)
Do not believe in such articles. Although the article is written good and arguments are given with facts and numbers but that does not mean that altcoins will be down to zero in 2019. That's not gonna happen. Anyone can write anything on steemit and statements like these can give some views and up votes at the paying sites like steemit. So that's why we often come across such ridiculous articles every now and then.
August 19, 2018, 05:20:03 AM
There are many people who believe in this view. After seeing 10K, a big drop is expected again. If such a thing really happens, a lot of people including myself will be tired of Bitcoin's investment. I hope this expectation goes away.
I don't think we're going to see 10 grand again until it's on its way beyond it. It's similar to the $1000 level. That took three years to return to and once it was passed it didn't come back.
August 19, 2018, 03:41:03 AM
The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.
A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.
Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:
A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.
Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:
That's actually the entire encapsulation of the TA problem with Bitcoin. Extremely constrained data history. How long's the open market been in existence, 7 years at maximum? With today's kind of volume, 2 years maximum? 3 cycles is all it's ever had, 3 bubbles, and the first two were easily manipulable so should be discarded.
The case is even worse with altcoins. Patterns repeat, until they don't. And they only show up if you're looking for them.
August 19, 2018, 02:09:25 AM
Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.
I question that logic, because if no one is using those altcoins or even buying them, they can go to zero as a practical matter. Even if a coin fell to 1 satoshi, if there are no buyers, there's no chance for a person to sell what he has. Take a look at the Yobit 1-satoshi graveyard. Put in a sell order on one of the crappiest coins there, and that order might sit there forever, never getting executed.As far as this prediction in the OP, who knows. Crypto is pretty resistant to typical analysis, as I've said many times. It's not like the stock market where there are businesses behind a stock. Crypto has no earnings, no P/E, none of that--there's just news, rumor, and sentiment, which translates into demand. I'm not sure if anything drives the price of a coin except supply and demand, so where a given coin is going to be 10 years or 5 minutes from now is just guesswork.
I do agree that a lot of coins are headed toward zero. Most never get used for anything except speculation, and that will probably end at some point. And think about it. How many different coins can the market really support? They just keep coming and a lot of them are just crap. That can't continue indefinitely.
Being a student of Finance, I know the fundamentally the analysis and evaluation of coin and have no hesitation to state that sometimes thing go against the analysis in crypto. Crypto is greatly affected by news and rumors, but it needs an attachment not only technically but sentimentally as well. You can feel the scent of upcoming happenings only when you are in love with crypto otherwise depending on technical stuff only may lead you to a great trouble.
August 18, 2018, 03:51:32 PM
About this bottom in Jan 2020 I think it is way to late. Bottom will happen way faster then this. But the start of a bull run is total possible to start in beginning of 2020. Not sure if we will see a $10000 BTC before we reach bottom. However we look at it, it seems that most agree that now and next year is the best time of the rest of your life to buy Bitcoin. With exception of infofront chart that screams NOW!
There is nothing like estimated cost of mining. Cost of electricity is more then 10 times higher in South Korea then in Venezuela. That is x10 factor. Also when price decline people stop mining and with that difficulty decrease and that means that those miners that still mine get more Bitcoins for same hashpower.
This chart is simply amazing
$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately.
There is nothing like estimated cost of mining. Cost of electricity is more then 10 times higher in South Korea then in Venezuela. That is x10 factor. Also when price decline people stop mining and with that difficulty decrease and that means that those miners that still mine get more Bitcoins for same hashpower.
This chart is simply amazing
August 18, 2018, 03:41:11 PM
Let's be honest, the altcoin frenzy of last year was the real bubble. Would not surprise me at all if they all disappear soon, bar the ones that passed the test of time already.
Also, what I would like to point out is that the context of 2018 is far different from the context of 2015 or 2013, that's why I am a bit skeptical by the prediction of a price of 100,000$ for Bitcoin in 5 years from now.
Also, what I would like to point out is that the context of 2018 is far different from the context of 2015 or 2013, that's why I am a bit skeptical by the prediction of a price of 100,000$ for Bitcoin in 5 years from now.
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