Topic: Banned dude projects Bitcoin bounce maybe to $10k, then renewed decline to $4600 - page 4. (Read 11898 times)

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:


Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840

I question that logic, because if no one is using those altcoins or even buying them, they can go to zero as a practical matter.  Even if a coin fell to 1 satoshi, if there are no buyers, there's no chance for a person to sell what he has.  Take a look at the Yobit 1-satoshi graveyard.  Put in a sell order on one of the crappiest coins there, and that order might sit there forever, never getting executed.

As far as this prediction in the OP, who knows.  Crypto is pretty resistant to typical analysis, as I've said many times.  It's not like the stock market where there are businesses behind a stock.  Crypto has no earnings, no P/E, none of that--there's just news, rumor, and sentiment, which translates into demand.  I'm not sure if anything drives the price of a coin except supply and demand, so where a given coin is going to be 10 years or 5 minutes from now is just guesswork.

I do agree that a lot of coins are headed toward zero.  Most never get used for anything except speculation, and that will probably end at some point.  And think about it.  How many different coins can the market really support?  They just keep coming and a lot of them are just crap.  That can't continue indefinitely.

There are many people who believe in this view. After seeing 10K, a big drop is expected again. If such a thing really happens, a lot of people including myself will be tired of Bitcoin's investment. I hope this expectation goes away.

Shelby's last prediction was that we'd be at 500k by 2025. Now he's saying not until 2031? Eh

I had one thought to add:

If bitcoin and alts were to rally two years in a row, this would likely classify quite a few people as accredited investors in the USA.

Assuming that quite a few folks sold enough to bring their income into the >200k USD range and likely both claimed and paid taxes to indicate this on their tax returns for last year, if the trend were to happen again this year .. it would actually allow many likely totally unprepared folks to now be technically qualifed as individual accredited investors, due to having earnings of over 200k for two years in a row, even if their total net worth is less than 1 million dollars.

Based off of this alone, I made a speculation that there would be no rally this year and if we were to pop to 10k again, it wouldn't be until after January next year if it were to rally at all. Naturally I didn't adhere 100% to my own speculation and have been buying (~50% back in already assuming a bottom in 2020) since going under 10k.

Because I might be totally off base in assuming that potentially creating accredited investors in one of the major sources of fresh bitcoin money would act negatively on the price in the medium term, or deeper down that thought is that the market is in any way rationally looking to protect itself.

Are there similar qualifications elsewhere that might cause some sort of natural tendency of large market traders to forego pushing the price up to profitable ranges?

Inclined to agree, but only when dealing with the top-tier or even second-tier alts. I don't have a specific categorisation that would qualify alts to these tiers, but having their own blockchain and active development would have to be a must.

I do believe that the hundreds of tokens that have launched in the past year are already struggling and the bulk of them don't have strong communities backing them, nor developers keen to spend even more time to revive their value and this will just further translate to delistings, and 0 liquidity, essentially, worthless.

But like you, I truly believe crypto is Bitcoin and Bitcoin is crypto. The fortunes of the entire market rest solely on Bitcoin's performance. For now, and for the foreseaable future.

And people said Bitcoin never went below its previous ATH until it did in 2015.

The markets don't care what anyone pays to mine a coin. That's the miner's problem and no one else's and I'll guess we might be shocked at how cheap it is for certain groups. Perhaps miners are in there batting away at the price but that seems like a rapid route to total ruin.

I've stopped giving a shit about the near term Bitcoin price. It'll be fine in the end. Is the $4000s possible? I don't see why not.

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.

I dare anyone believing altcoins to become near worthless to short them, because instead of altcoins going to zero, your balance will go to zero.

We are dealing with people not caring about fundamentals, decentralization, currency aspect, etc. It all contributes to a situation where even the worst altcoins are worth billions which is pathetic but the damage is done already. It's impossible to bet against altcoins long term speaking because you are really going to burn yourself. Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)

EDIT:

Shelby made some edits to clarify his speculations and analyses:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.44358289

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.44421969