Topic: Bear market likely over? - page 2. (Read 3059 times)

Nothing beats that for sure.

That's what DCA actually is. We can buy gradually when the market is on its bearish turn and many take it for granted because they're thinking that it's not going to change any time soon. Well, they could be right but it's also better to get prepared before some opposite force comes to what we're having right now, right?

I don't know if you got enough because if we are holding for the long term it might not even matter if we are buying towards the top or the bottom, but surely people appreciate feeling that they are buying towards the bottom and I think that the 200-week and the 100-week moving averages are good for that... shorter time frames have less significance. at least for the longer term holder.. perhaps someone holding 4-10 years or longer, and surely if someone has already been in bitcoin for a couple of years and they were thinking that they were holding for at least 4 years, then they might only have 2 more years left on their hold time, so maybe they get nervous in times like this in which their portfolio is not doing very good after two years, and sure maybe they should be buying more, but if they already bought a lot of bitcoin they might not be in the mood to buy more, even if buying more might be the good move, but buying more should then put their timeline to be 4-10 years on the newly acquired coins... but sometimes people have difficulties with continuing to commit to longer time frames, so they might just let their investment ride, even though buying would bring down their cost per coin (if they happen to be under water)


It is still hard to believe that there are going to be circumstances to bring BTC prices to new lows for this cycle, especially since the low of $15,479 was reached in November 2022 - and the 200-week moving average was around $24k at that time, so the low was around 35% below the 200-week moving average. 

Right now the 200-week moving is $27,691, so to get an equivalent of 35% below the 200-week moving average, BTC prices would have to go below $17,859 if it were to go there today, and the 200-week moving average is continuing to move up about $12 per day, so it just becomes further and further from how far breaking the current low of $15,479 would cause the price to be more than 46% below the 200-week moving average, and I am not saying that it is impossible, but I am saying it sounds a bit unrealistic to even be expecting those kinds of price drops in something as good as bitcoin, absent some pretty strange-ass breaks in what bitcoin is and inabilities to keep downity manipulators in check with actual and real bitcoins that they likely do not have and so at some point it does not make any sense that they can keep the BTC price down if they don't have actual bitcoins to sell rather than make-believe bitcoin.. which causes them to run the risk of getting reckt as fuck..


I get your point virasog, but I doubt that it would be as dire for bitcoin as you suggest if some of those squiggly lines end up getting broken ($24,800 - ish). .and then bitcoin still ends up bouncing back, even though it wasn't supposed to be able to .. blah blah blah.

Of course it's never too late to buy bitcoin, so there's no need to think about second chances because every time is an opportunity. The DCA strategy is reliable because we can calculate the assets we own, and we don't think about prices, we only think about future goals.

If we look at Btc halving history then next year is the time.
Halving Nov 2012 : ATH Nov 2013
Halving July 2016 : ATH Dec 2017
Halving May 2020 : ATH April 2021- November 2021
But Bullrun has a process where BTC doesn't pump for one day without stopping, so maybe it will happen at the end of 2024 but that's not the peak in my opinion. In 2025 Q1 it will really peak at whatever price. Cmiiw

There is something that, I think, will play here within this zone of support $24k-$25k, which I used to see happen based on my experience, basically what I call induce of sellers, There is likely a chance that Bitcoin may attempt to sweep that support, wick down then back up and will fail to have a close below that support level in the Monthly time. Just as you said that breaking below that level of support will cause Bitcoin to bleed down against the U.S. dollar, that is basically the kind of play that the market likes to play, to fool people and do the opposite.


 

Well, on a weekly time frame, there is no change in the structure of the bitcoin. Bitcoin is making HH and HL and as long as this structure remain intact the bitcoin will remain bullish. For me, 24,800 - 25,000$ is a key level. A daily close below this level will mean that we may be moving towards a break of structure, and a weekly close below this level will confirm an extended bear market.

I hope Bitcoin will not break this important support and right now we are seeing that Bitcoin is pumping nicely from this support but seriously we would not want Bitcoin to touch this support a few times, making it weak.

It is somehow challenging knowing what the bottom is as you should already know that no one can accurately predict what the price will do. Besides, I consider it pointless looking for the bottom. Instead of worrying about the bottom, one can just do a simple analysis:

1. what is the ATH of Bitcoin? This being around $69k
2. Check if price is at a discount which is 50%  below the ATH... in the case with Bitcoin, it is a yes.
3. Are there chances of a bullrun in the near future? Yes it is possibly considering that there is a major even next year; an event that always lead to a surge in price.

With the above three points noted and established that price is at a discount and there is a high chance we will see a new ATH, then it is wise to buy using any method such as DCA. To me looking for the bottom might actually be a major distraction and a lot of people who practice this might miss the opportunity to buy at a discount.


I had this feeling too but the prolonged consolidation within that region made me have a second thought. I will be like: "what is holding the price from leaving this region already?"

Let's just say that opportunities like this don't come twice, so there is a greater sense of enthusiasm to continue buying crypto assets, even on a DCA basis. Moreover, if the target to buy is Bitcoin, it is clearly very good and will not cause harm as long as you are patient and wait for higher prices. I'm also still very happy to make purchases using the DCA method because it doesn't have such a high burden at all and today I saw Bitcoin almost touch $26K again. Hopefully tomorrow or the next day Bitcoin can pass $26K and approach $27K.

We are still in a bear market right now. To be honest, the graph chart shows that the movement is still on a downward trend. There is therefore no other viable option at the moment to take advantage of the chance to invest in and acquire cryptocurrencies that we believe will generate a high return on our future investments. And what some have said here is true: During current bear season, DCA is still one of the best tactics. The main thing is that we can buy crypto assets for the future if there is a purchase, even if it happens gradually.

You are right..
We should understand something very pertinent concerning the market that no matter any circumstances we can't change the normalities to abnormalities why because the principles has already be implemented and that shall it be without any readjustment or rearrangement. We should also and always be smart over the market if not any circle we passed can never be recorded anymore, that's is why I so much dislike people focusing much on bullrush without knowing we can't turned down the opposite being the bearrun.

Basically I believe to know that bear season is the accumulation period where every investor and holders should look into making new portfolio by increase their investment plans or to gear up their holdings as any bear we passed can never be like the previous, and what I noticed mostly is that people fails to accept the reality to know the both season are real, again they don't remain statics or stationary, they are subjected to changes are any given point that is why the changing in prices are what brought the sole called trading which we all basically calls DCA.

I think that you make a good point, at least in regards to clarifying that we should be able to consider that the move from $69k to $15,479 can be constituted as a bear market, so then one of the questions becomes whether or not we are yet out of the bear market.. .and 1) is the bottom in  or 2) are we going to bounce around the bottom (even if higher than the bottom) for long enough that we can confirm that the bear market is not over.

I am not going to proclaim to know the answers to these questions, even though my sense was that the chances were pretty good that the bear market was over when we got above $25k and pretty much stayed above $25k since mid-March 2023.. and yeah, it is not 100% clear while we are in our various price moves whether we are still in the bear market or if it really is over or not... and we can ONLY become more assured that it is over when we are looking back historically regarding what happened and then attempt to label the parts in a historical (more of a full-picture) context.

I really get irritated by some of the attempts to apply traditional definitions of "what is a bear market" and "what is a bull market" and some of the patronizing bullshit that sometimes seems to come when attempting to prematurely label bitcoin markets as bull or bear merely because it fits some kind of a definition that might apply to mature markets or markets generally and blah blah blah..

Now if there is an accounting for the paradigm-shifting nature of bitcoin and/or an accounting for that we are very likely on an exponential adoption s-curve, then surely I would be more receptive for accounts that consider those kinds of particular and real-world bitcoin dynamics.


Personally, I think that sentiment is a dumb thing to measure or to give very many shits about, even though sentiment might make some kind of a material difference on the margins, it is likely not a very good way for any long-term bitcoin investor to figure out what to do or what not to do in regards to their own bitcoin stackenings.

TLDR: Fuck sentiment

For daily and weekly TFs it can be confirmed as a red candle, but I cannot confirm that this red candle will continue on the monthly TF. This means that there is still a possibility of seeing a green candle before September closes, so don't let your optimism disappear just because of a correction.

In fact we haven't finished the second week for September yet, so I think there's still plenty of time to see the differences. Negative sentiment in the market can turn positive, but it may take some time to expect recovery. Red candles have been kept in July and August, but I didn't hope there to be 3 red candles in a row. While I'm not really sure what caused the market to correct in the last few hours, it's a good idea not to pay too much attention to it if you don't accumulate.

We will see that, be happy, the Bitcoin market today was hit by a negative sentiment and became a bearish sentiment again after some time before recovering a few months, the candle in September had been confirmed to be a red candle.
Next month gives a better moment to Bitcoin, and the right distance to save Bitcoin to Halving Bitcoin in this cycle, I am very waiting for it.

For predictions of a few days, it is more sideway and below, and that will definitely happen, maybe this sentiment will push the price of Bitcoin to the level of $ 24K- $ 23k back in the next few days before Bitcoin does it back up.

The eyes of the investors are raised once again after seeing the current position of the market. Because the market position is not very good at present as we have seen Bitcoin price rise a lot a few days back due to which we have a kind of peace in our mind. But a few days ago we saw the market was $30k dollars but later this month the price of Bitcoin came down to full bear market. Although right now we can see Bitcoin price touching $24k there is definitely enough time for us to buy. If we hold on to this market for a long period of time, we will definitely have a lot of profit potential later on. However, the Bitcoin market will not stay in this position forever, it is always on the ups and downs, we know that and we have to accept it. As various experts have researched Bitcoin price is likely to move to a better position soon. We think the bull market will return to Bitcoin right after the Bitcoin halving in the next year. I think the price of Bitcoin will rise again in a few days and it is likely to go into the new year in a good position.

Even though I am tempted to agree with you on this, I think it is fair we make some clarifications for the purpose of context. We have basically two major market conditions: bullish and bearish. Bullish market does not mean market will continue moving up forever and bear market does not mean market will continue doing down move forever.

Bitcoin dropping from ATH of $69k to around $17k does not require any sugar-coated statement but should be pointed out as bear market. Now that price have reluctantly recovered a little towards $26k  does not mean the bears have left the market.

I understand a lot of people just love hearing only nice things about the market that is why we delight so much in seeing the bullrun. Unknown to many is the fact that the bear market is actually where smart guys plan for the bullrun. Indeed, it is in bear market, such as we have now, that is good to buy Bitcoin rather than waiting to jump in during the bulllrun.

This would ignore the defined value for bear market, just like a bull market its the regular set of gains.    There is no regular decline in pricing for sometime now, it might be sedate and some suppose even dead from no movement but thats not a regular decline in price.  We rally, we pull back and circle and twist and in effect just go sideways.  Much frustration but no regular pattern resulting downwards, I would actually argue there is some pattern upwards but you have to zoom out to over 9 months for that and perhaps too far to see.
  We can be fairly certain no reliable trend down is established, we have the lack of pattern if anything.  In spring there was a price channel and it was negative, but we broke out of that upwards.  Sadly it failed to go far, just past 30k but a failed move up is not what fits a bear market.   Some say any decline more then 20%, I dont find that too reliable.

This period is best for more Bitcoin accumulations after all there is always a discount before the next bull market and all time high price, Bitcoin have proven to be one of the best technological tool that have Revolutionized the global financial sector and that is likely what most of the learned investorss have already settle with, and as a matter of fact, buying during the dip close to halves like this will place the investors on a higher advantages for the period ahead.


So despite whatever pressure we may see from the market right now should not force anyone to sell but rather you should set aside any extra funds to buy more Bitcoin along the way before the de day when we can see a significant price movement toward ATH.

There is downward pressure on the Bitcoin price. What you say may be true, but it becomes difficult to predict how far this decline will go. We are approaching the halving, but I wonder if the bottom in Bitcoin price will be this level or lower. I don't want to make any predictions, but if the price does not go down too much from these levels, I think the price will have prepared a very solid ground.

Rallies in Bitcoin are opportunities to sell to make more money at this phase. I have only seen one major rally recently as far as Bitcoin is concerned unless the trader is looking at the lower timeframes. Judging by the gradual bearish progress on my daily and weekly chart, Bitcoin started a serious warning of a potential bearish reversal when it was unable to breach $31,450 convincingly higher, but it rather formed a bearish price action below the level after some weeks of trying. Ever since then, it has lasted for 8 weeks with only a single weekly candlestick ended bullish (positive). The fall was reassured on a break of $29,400 support and Bitcoin would remain lower below this level.

Also on checking what happened via Fibonacci tools, I discovered that the last important rally of last week was effectively stopped by 23.6% level of the weekly chart at $28,080. It was a sharp buy and sell and the market still ended the day on a bearish note which is what really matters to traders. The bearish pattern and trend continue until further notice.

The bear market is far from over, and the chances are that the price will dip further this year. The market is still in the correction phase. We are seeing fake rallies at the moment to attract more investors. We might see a bull run next year after Bitcoin halving.

Of course we are just about in the last stretch of the bear market. Next year will be a bull market, and it could start right after the block halving. So as far as the price declining, it's ok, it's part of the movement.

But regarding the current price, we had a price rally though, to put the price around $27k at the end of the month. Not sure though if this is enough for us to have a green dildo month end. But I wouldn't be surprised if we won't but at least we have gotten over the $25k price range.