Topic: Bear market likely over? - page 4. (Read 2989 times)

Right now the market is still bearish and we still have a very big chance to buy at a cheap price,
if we miss this opportunity it is clear that in the bullish season everything will be very expensive,
even altcoins can increase up to x100 in the bullish season.

Yes exactly buying now will be full of fruitful results because this time the market price is not such high and everyone should buy bitcoin as the coming year will be beneficial for selling of bitcoin and reap the maximum cost from your investment.

The current situations are not so bad and not so good and everyone is in wait for enhancement of their cash by holding their bitcoin. Those who have taken sudden decision during these circumstances are not wise because under such circumstances waiting will be better as we all know about the Bull run is coming soon.

So those who don't have yet make investment should surely buy bitcoin and just wait for the appropriate price so coming year will be full of good return for you.

it's better to think about continuing to buy and keep it straight away, when the market situation is indeed unpredictable, of course the best thing to do is that. we already know that a halving era situation will occur, where the hope for a speedy recovery will also be realized. so that by buying, we will get the opportunity to be able to make a profit in time. don't be tempted to keep waiting for the market to go down and just buy because once again the market is difficult to predict.

Well the price is better now than 15k$ and i believe that not too far from today we will see another all time high on bitcoin price together with the popular altcoins in crypto. It is now the best time to buy for good if we dont buy today we maybe need a big capital when bull market officially begin so lets prepare now.

Price can be a benchmark for people to see what direction Bitcoin has taken or be a reflection of a long-term trading journey.
I tend to rarely look at price charts. Only once a week I see it to compare and analyze the suitability of the purchase price even in small quantities.

I agree with JayJuanGee that trying to build Bitcoin ownership without being too concerned with rising and falling prices is what I'm doing right now so I wonder why do people talk about prices so much when they know that Bitcoin can go up and down because most market participants already understand about crypto market volatility.

JayJuanGee quoted my post so I checked his post and found him answer your questions, not that his answer wasn't correct, but I thought I need to add an important fact that many people seem to be unaware of is that not all miners are friends, they don't know each other, they share one interest and one interest only (making the most profit).

If there was a universally agreed upon way to increase their profit, they won't even have to discuss it on forums or send emails, everyone would be doing it and it would just happen, and given that miners have been mining for over a decade, regardless of how miners as people change, the mindset is the same.

Many people like to come up with all kinds of different theories on how miners could do x to achieve z, you got a theory that suggests miners can intentionally shut down some of their gears to achieve.

1- Lower difficulty for the next epoch.
2- Fewer blocks found > larger amount of stuck transactions > more fees.

You got another theory that suggests, miners can shut down 90% of their miner gears, save 90% on operational and power costs, and still make the same money since the rewards are the same.

You got many more weird theories that all look great on paper, but can't be done simply because the nature of Bitcoin mining is decentralized, if 10,000 miners agree to exploit something based on one of the theories, I myself as a miner will make more money by exploiting their exploit, i.e if they shut down 90% of their gears, I will power 100% of my gears, a dozen thousand miners will do the same, so that 10,000 miners will actually lose money simply because they can't tell me or anyone else how to operate.

in fact, even if 90% of miners agreed to apply one of the theories, the remaining 10% can rekt the whole plan and eat the profit that 90% left on the table before any of their goals are achieved.

As long as you don't need a license from a single entity like the U.S., British or Russian government to mine BTC, there is exactly NOTHING miners can do to hurt BTC or its users without hurting themselves even more.

I rather worry about being hit by a lightning strike in the middle of the summer than worry about any of those theories surrounding miners becoming true in real life.

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In the recent high fee waves, some serious hashrate was lost, it was as large as 10% and then quickly settled at 6% (could be lower or higher depending on the luck status which we can't tell), someone might assume that some miners intentionally did that to clog the network even more and cause fees to rise so the remaining hashrate they had left online would make more money, but that is just theory, if we run the math (we did so many times in the Mining section) you will see that that 6% would have made more money by just mining rather than playing any kind of games and taking a huge risk.


 

If you are that someone who do love on checking or looking at charts and you do have that kind of doubt when it comes to your Bitcoin holdings then you would really be having that kind of impulsive emotions or
approach on things specially if there's a sudden decline on which you would really be that trying to look for some possible reasons on whats behind with those drops and this would really be a never ending kind of
emotional swings everytime the market do make out its move.
The time we could say that bear market is over is on the time that we do see that bull run effect or event which it is most likely be pertaining into that halving event which it would be neither months after
before it would kick in.
For now we could really just simply go with the flow or waves about these volatility and its not really that something new. You would be needing to be wise in regarding whether you would be securing yourself
on the bottom and would make out some profits later on when the market starts to kick in and going upwards. It is really just like that, better not to make yourself
that too emotional when it comes to price movement approach.

I doubt that I am studying the issue (or that I am even technical enough) to really provide you with any kind of meaningful assessment regarding how the blockchain is being used and the various spikes in the meme pools which results in higher fees, and of course we have had a recent increase in the various inscriptions that are connected with the BRC20 standard that recently came out, so yeah the actual spike seems to be coming from a pretty BIG rush to get a bunch of the various NFTs, inscriptions or whatever they are called onto the bitcoin blockchain - and so the fact that the fees are going up and people are paying high ass fees in order to transact on the bitcoin blockchain is likely attributed to demand rather than being described as a spam attack..

My understanding is that the first waves of the BTC transaction fees going up in early February and during that stage, the purging of the lower fee transactions did not allow the lower fee transaction (attempts) to be placed, and so the purging was in the ballpark of less than 5 satoshis per vbyte - however, this time around the purging of new transactions is going up and up and I believe getting into the area of 50 satoshis per vbyte and even higher for the ones being purged.. which is a sign that people are paying the higher rates.. the transactions are going through and if you want to call the transactions (that are going through) as spam, then people are paying a whole fucking lot of money to be spamming, and it seems that it would be quite difficult to keep up that level of spam, because miners are actually making money on those high fees so for me, it is difficult to call those spam, and let's see how long such high fees are sustainable.. or if various other alternatives might be reached to be able to increase development (and channels) for second layer solutions, such as lightning network and perhaps some other solutions that could evolve (develop) from the concerns that many normies are going to have regarding how much they have to pay to transact on the bitcoin network.

Actually, Mikeywith made a pretty decent post to show how it appears that ordinals are become more than 50% of the onchain transactions, yet again, there still can be questions regarding sustainability of the trend and then possible solutions that might come about because of the congestion and the level of the BTC transaction fees.

Here's a snip of Mikeywith's post from another thread, and he largely answers the question regarding whether bitcoin is broken from BRC20 tokens, as "no"... and at this time, I tend to agree with that current assessment of the situation (which he describes further in that post, and there are other similar kinds of talking points in that thread.. with some members seeming to disagree with him:


You can come up with all kinds of scenarios in which you believe that there could be some "evil miners" but I doubt that the game theory is really working out like that in bitcoin - especially since it seems to be quite likely that mining remains quite competitive and spread out, so it costs a whole fucking lot of value (including acquiring the mining equipment and turning it on or off and gaming the system and trying to control the hash power, so it becomes quite difficult for miners to spend so many resources against their own interests).

Personally, I believe that it is more healthy to consider the more-likely theories in regards to what is happening and what might happen, rather than coming up with elaborate scenarios that would really be way more difficult to carry out than you seem to be suggesting that it might not be difficult and as if it were to be in the interest of the miners to spend so many resources in fringe plots that are not very likely to work anyhow, even if they could either get resources together or to get other evil miners to collaborate with them in such a plot to kill the golden goose.

Yeah, there are government and financial institutions with seemingly unlimited resources in terms of money and even abilities to manipulate information.. but still you are likely giving them too much credit to be able to achieve such a plot, even if they are likely involved in a variety aspects of BTC mining and the market and they would love to kill bitcoin.. but their mere desire and the level of their power (and even evil) still does not mean that they have enough resources and power to achieve such killing bitcoin objectives.

I am not even suggesting that there might NOT be a variety of limited successes along the way, and sometimes undermining confidence could last for years, but still?  I doubt that longer term history or truth is on the side of the bitcoin FUDsters, naysayers and/or bitcoin haters.


Each person has to figure out their own options in terms of how to acquire bitcoin and how much and what they are believing are going to be their future transaction abilities through bitcoin, through second layers or through various shitcoins, fiat or other ways that they store and/or transact their value.

There are not any guarantees regarding how these various matters are evolving or going to evolve, so it still likely remains a good idea to try to create many options for yourself whether good scenarios or bad scenarios end up playing out.  So the longer that any of us is in bitcoin, we likely need to figure out various ways that we might want to hold our bitcoin, including if we learn how to use various kinds of private wallets (and even lightning network wallets), and yeah, perhaps sometimes we might even have to wait before sending transactions or we might buy through exchanges until some of the congestion clears (hopefully).  Sure it is also possible that fees will come back down to 1 satoshi per vbyte, but maybe they won't and we have to figure out how to transact with higher fees, such as 50 per vbyte or some other amount that ends up playing out to be the "going rate."

We are likely in a different position if we already hold plenty of BTC in a variety of places, as compared if we are still in the earlier BTC accumulating stages or if we had been engaging in a business that had relied upon the sustainability of low "on-chain" transaction fees, and so ideally the market is going to work out these kinds of matters, and it seems to me that it tends to not be making any kinds of rash  determinations regarding what to do based on circumstances and/or trends that might not last, even though of course, each of us should be attempting to account for information that we know about and what we can reasonably infer from it... including filtering through information sources (and descriptions of what is going on or what might go on) in terms of some being more/less credible than others.

Rising and falling prices are a normal routine that occurs in the market, where if there is a lot of demand, the price can go up and if there are lots of sellers, the price can go down.
Price can be one of the benchmarks that can reflect the positive side behind Bitcoin's journey from the past to the future.
Isn't that enough for comparison in setting up and building Bitcoin holdings?

There is no need to spend time looking at price charts all the time if they know Bitcoin is a good asset for the long term because it can drain the positive energy of those with weak hands.

I  just recognized that mirners get more fees than a single block reward. I just want to say It's rain without clouds for miners. As a lerner I want to know from you, is bitcoin network congestion caused by BRC20 or is there some other problem?

If miners receive more transaction fees than single block rewards, will they try to create such a situation by creating an artificial crisis in the future? In such a situation, those who used small amounts of Bitcoin on chain will no longer have that opportunity.

Another question is that the use of on-chain is only for those who  want to transact with more fess will only have the opportunity to use it? Can we finally go back to the previous position? Or do you think we should evolve our own system along with Bitcoin evolution?

Of course there are a variety of ways to think about bitcoin without ONLY thinking about its price, but the BTC price tends to be a pretty decent long term free market indicator that reflects upon other things that are going on in bitcoin, and surely there are going to be times in which price is not very well lined up with "what it should be", but as long as bitcoin remains alive and remains a somewhat free market, it is likely that the price is just going to continue to go up, even if there could well be decently long periods of price suppression along the way.

So yeah of course, related to recent transaction fees, we are seeing a lot of clogging of the network right now, and it remains interesting to see how mining might respond to such increases in fees (that involve both the reward and the fees)... and sure there are also likely a lot of relatively pisses off bitcoiners who have been used to transacting on bitcoin's base layer, and if they want to continue to attempt to use bitcoin for transactions, then they likely may well need to figure out some alternative ways to transact, including either delaying their transaction(s) or perhaps looking at some kind of a bitcoin second layer, such as looking at lightning network as a possible alternative way to continue to be able to transact.

I don't think that the bear market is over or coming to an end. I see this bouncing back as just a reflex and will eventually go back to the level before it becomes back to bullish. Prices have stabilized above $25k and I think now that we are entering a new era, the bear market is definitely not over yet and there is still a chance for it to fall again, we can say the bear market will be over if the price reaches at least $30k, so  we should not panic or fear, just focus on the investment, continuing to buy when the market crash because the opportunity to buy is cheaper is during the market drop.

Tips that are quite simple that do not experience the slightest obstacle to implement.
Hard for those who don't want to apply it and easy for those who want to do it.

Questions often arise in my mind when I'm doing nothing in front of a computer screen, why do they delude themselves too often by presenting themselves as if they are strong in holding Bitcoin, even though they often discuss price figures in the market based on charts.

By the way, given the ever-increasing conditions of Bitcoin transaction fees, perhaps the resulting hectic activity could be a reason to build Bitcoin ownership without having to care about rising or falling prices.

Yeah.. hopefully none of you, who seem to not even know how to use the word bitcoin, are investing into some amorphous thing that is called "crypto", and I have hardly any clue what the fuck you are talking about when you suggest to invest into "crypto."

If you learn what is bitcoin, and then you learn how to use bitcoin in a sentence, then it may well help you to better learn what is going on and to be able to figure out some investing strategies in terms of what are you going to do in order to attempt to build the size of your bitcoin holdings, whether the BTC price is down or up, and then surely once you are spending time building your bitcoin holdings, then at some point you can attempt to figure out whether or if you might invest into some other products that might fall into the category of "crypto" or shitcoins or gambling with some of your value...

It does not seem like a good idea to be gambling too much, but of course, some people cannot help themselves, but if you attempt to learn about bitcoin, at least you might well be able to increase your odds in terms of at least better understanding what it is that you are attempting to look at, assess and talk about... perhaps? perhaps?

Correct. we must learn from past experiences as lessons for the future. Moreover, investing in crypto does not necessarily only benefit but also has risks. Therefore investing in crypto should not only think about the benefits but also we must be able to minimize risks so that we can avoid big losses.

Bitcoin has reach 30k$ and is now in highest cost than the cost of previous year although the prediction can sometimes become wrong because they are based on thoughts but as we compared the previous and present year so we can say that now bitcoin is in Bull run and all those who have bought bitcoin may be its minimum or maximum cost  but they will have higher return if they have not sell their bitcoin and kept holding.

I think that bitcoin is on the way of success so keep hoping and hold bitcoin for more than six months it will boost more and may be it reach to 40k$ after some months. There is no evidence but according to estimation next year will be powerful and happy year for all bitcoin holders.

Once today the price hits $30k the bear market is over, we are in for a bigger surprise, no doubt that this year the price will reach at least $80k or well past the ATH it had in 2021, now we have to focus on continuing to buy so we can get big profits when a bull run occurs.

In these instances we are no longer in the bear market and it has ended where we are now gradually facing the bull season. And in the few days that I observed, bitcoin still remained at 28k$ more, and we don't know if that is the resistance that he shows on the graph.

      So the only prudent way we can do is to accumulate bitcoin as much as we can and don't gamble with day trading if we don't have enough knowledge on this matter especially since most people in the market are now bullish.

There's no way that we could really be able to conclude out that the bear market is over until we do reach out that green candlestick would be standing up on a rally.Now that prices are really that going up and down
then it would really be just normal on having that approach on having no uncertainty when it comes to market price predictions.We cant really be able to point out on when bear or bull market ends.
Good thing that we are seeing now that prices are starting up to climb up which is something that we do really want to see after all the years that we've been on bear mode.
We cant be able to determine out exactly on when it would happen but basing up with some cycles or history then we do have at least some idea on what are the things that
could possibly happen.

Bearish trend down ended with the price action outlasting the 2022 trend, it was quite slow and went sideways more then anything.  Even with a bullish trend I do think pullback of 20% or more is quite possible and does not negate the overall move.  So even as far as moving down to 20k now would still not be negative enough to wipe out the previous good work done since the low of 2022.   Strangely we are not pulling back at all, I almost feel more comfortable if we do trade to a lower price before recovering any losses and then trading higher through resistance but we'll see how it develops when volume returns after many bank holidays are cleared in various countries etc.