Hi Kevin. Great job on your neural net predictor. I'm watching your progress and it's looking very good. 
Thank you! Glad you like it
Topic: Beta version of new Bitcoin price prediction model! (Read 3877 times)
Thank you! Glad you like it
Hi Kevin. Great job on your neural net predictor. I'm watching your progress and it's looking very good.
Well this time the neural nerwork dint do very good hehe, i saw it was predicting a downturn yesterday but the price went up instead of the prediction.. but is good anyway
It last updated 44 minutes ago, but it does not even show the actual price as the starting point. What is going on there?
There was some problem with the server last night and the software wasn't running for about 6 hours, which unfortunately will have an adverse effect on predictions today. It shows the proper starting point now though.
It last updated 44 minutes ago, but it does not even show the actual price as the starting point. What is going on there?
to be honest you need to show your method, the secret if you have one such as special setup, or secret number you can keep but ... it's like have a scientific approach to data analysis ...
like professor David Aronson says on
Scientific Approaches to Algorithmic Trading, Part 1 of 4
http://youtu.be/AgOxoMMillM?t=4m15s
simulate + backtest + cross validation
if you just says that the future price is "X" because is based on neural network simulations sounds very vague to me ... I used to play a lite bit with Jeff Heaton's Encog framework .. and boy ... so much ways to simulate something within neural networks ...
of course in the end of the day in a imperfect information game ... we need some faith ... but to sell a product for financial market .... is better backup you product with a good maths and strong hypotheses ..
like professor David Aronson says on
Scientific Approaches to Algorithmic Trading, Part 1 of 4
http://youtu.be/AgOxoMMillM?t=4m15s
simulate + backtest + cross validation
if you just says that the future price is "X" because is based on neural network simulations sounds very vague to me ... I used to play a lite bit with Jeff Heaton's Encog framework .. and boy ... so much ways to simulate something within neural networks ...
of course in the end of the day in a imperfect information game ... we need some faith ... but to sell a product for financial market .... is better backup you product with a good maths and strong hypotheses ..
I don't know how thorough of an understanding you have of neural networks but for 99% of the people who view my site, if they were to look at my code it would not have any effect on their understanding of how my predictions are calculated (they would be lost). I can understand where you are coming from though. If you want to know more about the implementation of this neural network I'm happy to talk to you about it. Just email me at [email protected]
to be honest you need to show your method, the secret if you have one such as special setup, or secret number you can keep but ... it's like have a scientific approach to data analysis ...
like professor David Aronson says on
Scientific Approaches to Algorithmic Trading, Part 1 of 4
http://youtu.be/AgOxoMMillM?t=4m15s
simulate + backtest + cross validation
if you just says that the future price is "X" because is based on neural network simulations sounds very vague to me ... I used to play a lite bit with Jeff Heaton's Encog framework .. and boy ... so much ways to simulate something within neural networks ...
of course in the end of the day in a imperfect information game ... we need some faith ... but to sell a product for financial market .... is better backup you product with a good maths and strong hypotheses ..
like professor David Aronson says on
Scientific Approaches to Algorithmic Trading, Part 1 of 4
http://youtu.be/AgOxoMMillM?t=4m15s
simulate + backtest + cross validation
if you just says that the future price is "X" because is based on neural network simulations sounds very vague to me ... I used to play a lite bit with Jeff Heaton's Encog framework .. and boy ... so much ways to simulate something within neural networks ...
of course in the end of the day in a imperfect information game ... we need some faith ... but to sell a product for financial market .... is better backup you product with a good maths and strong hypotheses ..
yes ... but .... maybe .... his .... neural ... network ... is .... in ... too ... early ... of ... a ... stage ... to ... show ... off
to be honest you need to show your method, the secret if you have one such as special setup, or secret number you can keep but ... it's like have a scientific approach to data analysis ...
like professor David Aronson says on
Scientific Approaches to Algorithmic Trading, Part 1 of 4
http://youtu.be/AgOxoMMillM?t=4m15s
simulate + backtest + cross validation
if you just says that the future price is "X" because is based on neural network simulations sounds very vague to me ... I used to play a lite bit with Jeff Heaton's Encog framework .. and boy ... so much ways to simulate something within neural networks ...
of course in the end of the day in a imperfect information game ... we need some faith ... but to sell a product for financial market .... is better backup you product with a good maths and strong hypotheses ..
like professor David Aronson says on
Scientific Approaches to Algorithmic Trading, Part 1 of 4
http://youtu.be/AgOxoMMillM?t=4m15s
simulate + backtest + cross validation
if you just says that the future price is "X" because is based on neural network simulations sounds very vague to me ... I used to play a lite bit with Jeff Heaton's Encog framework .. and boy ... so much ways to simulate something within neural networks ...
of course in the end of the day in a imperfect information game ... we need some faith ... but to sell a product for financial market .... is better backup you product with a good maths and strong hypotheses ..
Sweet, time to buy!
So according to the 24-hour prediction chart, we're supposed to be at 687.62 in 6 minutes?
awww it changed its mind 
No neural network is required to see that we are about to either go back up to the 680 range (or higher finally), or way down. At a bit of a crossroads.
That said, I hope your network is correct on this one. I have some of those 623 coins to unload!
Also, why not have the network predict Huobi instead? if Bitstamp is tracking it, then you are just compounding an error. Do you think that Bitstamp is not tracking Huobi?
That said, I hope your network is correct on this one. I have some of those 623 coins to unload!
Also, why not have the network predict Huobi instead? if Bitstamp is tracking it, then you are just compounding an error. Do you think that Bitstamp is not tracking Huobi?
I just chose Bitstamp because it's a major exchange and there is a lot of historic data available. I don't think it would make a huge difference which exchange I used.
Quote from: knightcoin
is there white paper or source code available ?
The source code is proprietary for the time being, sorry!
faith is required then ... ok, wish lucky then...
No neural network is required to see that we are about to either go back up to the 680 range (or higher finally), or way down. At a bit of a crossroads.
That said, I hope your network is correct on this one. I have some of those 623 coins to unload!
Also, why not have the network predict Huobi instead? if Bitstamp is tracking it, then you are just compounding an error. Do you think that Bitstamp is not tracking Huobi?
That said, I hope your network is correct on this one. I have some of those 623 coins to unload!
Also, why not have the network predict Huobi instead? if Bitstamp is tracking it, then you are just compounding an error. Do you think that Bitstamp is not tracking Huobi?
I just chose Bitstamp because it's a major exchange and there is a lot of historic data available. I don't think it would make a huge difference which exchange I used.
Quote from: knightcoin
is there white paper or source code available ?
The source code is proprietary for the time being, sorry!
is there white paper or source code available ?
No neural network is required to see that we are about to either go back up to the 680 range (or higher finally), or way down. At a bit of a crossroads.
That said, I hope your network is correct on this one. I have some of those 623 coins to unload!
Also, why not have the network predict Huobi instead? if Bitstamp is tracking it, then you are just compounding an error. Do you think that Bitstamp is not tracking Huobi?
That said, I hope your network is correct on this one. I have some of those 623 coins to unload!
Also, why not have the network predict Huobi instead? if Bitstamp is tracking it, then you are just compounding an error. Do you think that Bitstamp is not tracking Huobi?
According to the historic 24 hour predictor...we should start seeing a ramp-up in price here in the next couple hours.
Let's see what happens...
Let's see what happens...
It's been pretty accurate about the major price movements over the past several days... I would not be surprised at all if it is right again here. We'll see, hopefully it is right!
According to the historic 24 hour predictor...we should start seeing a ramp-up in price here in the next couple hours.
Let's see what happens...
Let's see what happens...
You should honestly remove the 5-20 day ones, they just mislead noobs.
Is your 24 hour one updating in real time? I imagine it would be more effective if it corrected mistakes on the spot.
http://puu.sh/9eM83/b90ecc457d.png
As you can see above there is an increasing disparity between prediction and actuality, but no correction or timing adjustment. However, you did more or less see that recent drop coming, very inspiring.
Is your 24 hour one updating in real time? I imagine it would be more effective if it corrected mistakes on the spot.
http://puu.sh/9eM83/b90ecc457d.png
As you can see above there is an increasing disparity between prediction and actuality, but no correction or timing adjustment. However, you did more or less see that recent drop coming, very inspiring.
I think I want to keep those ones still because they are interesting and a lot of people were asking me for longer term predictions when the 20 day one didn't exist. However, I am definitely going to keep trying to improve them.
And yeah, I'm hoping to solve the issue of it taking a bit of time to respond to changes with the new predictor. That's why I'm having it update every 5 minutes. I just uploaded a new neural network for the beta so we'll see how that one works.
I'll be keeping an eye on it.
You should honestly remove the 5-20 day ones, they just mislead noobs.
Is your 24 hour one updating in real time? I imagine it would be more effective if it corrected mistakes on the spot.
http://puu.sh/9eM83/b90ecc457d.png
As you can see above there is an increasing disparity between prediction and actuality, but no correction or timing adjustment. However, you did more or less see that recent drop coming, very inspiring.
Is your 24 hour one updating in real time? I imagine it would be more effective if it corrected mistakes on the spot.
http://puu.sh/9eM83/b90ecc457d.png
As you can see above there is an increasing disparity between prediction and actuality, but no correction or timing adjustment. However, you did more or less see that recent drop coming, very inspiring.
I think I want to keep those ones still because they are interesting and a lot of people were asking me for longer term predictions when the 20 day one didn't exist. However, I am definitely going to keep trying to improve them.
And yeah, I'm hoping to solve the issue of it taking a bit of time to respond to changes with the new predictor. That's why I'm having it update every 5 minutes. I just uploaded a new neural network for the beta so we'll see how that one works.
Got a neural network to tell folks which neural network they should follow at any particular moment? Looks like they give conflicting calls.
The 24 hour one - it has the lowest average error. The 20 day one is unreliable, as it says above the chart. The 5 day one does OKAY but it's not as good (as is reflected in the higher average error)
You should honestly remove the 5-20 day ones, they just mislead noobs.
Is your 24 hour one updating in real time? I imagine it would be more effective if it corrected mistakes on the spot.
http://puu.sh/9eM83/b90ecc457d.png
As you can see above there is an increasing disparity between prediction and actuality, but no correction or timing adjustment. However, you did more or less see that recent drop coming, very inspiring.
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