Beta version of new Bitcoin price prediction model! - page 2.

K128kevin2

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Quote from: Raystonn on June 04, 2014, 09:25:40 AM

Got a neural network to tell folks which neural network they should follow at any particular moment? Looks like they give conflicting calls.

The 24 hour one - it has the lowest average error. The 20 day one is unreliable, as it says above the chart. The 5 day one does OKAY but it's not as good (as is reflected in the higher average error)

Raystonn

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Got a neural network to tell folks which neural network they should follow at any particular moment? Looks like they give conflicting calls.

K128kevin2

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Yeah the 24 hour predictor on the home page has been doing really well recently... I'm almost tempted to just scratch the new predictor. The cool thing about the way this works is that the longer I keep it running, the more accurate it will become. As more data becomes available to train the neural network, it can learn more and the average error becomes lower.

davidgdg

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Quote from: samurai1200 on June 04, 2014, 01:08:20 AM

Quote from: davidgdg on June 04, 2014, 12:42:48 AM

I don't much believe in TA, whether it's done by a human or a computer. But I must admit I'm impressed by the prediction made eight hours ago of a fall from 670 to 635 which was almost spot on both in terms of timing and degree.

Were you looking at the chart here:
http://www.btcpredictions.com/Historic.php

or here?
http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

For a few hours after i posted last, I checked in with the NewPredictor every once in a while, which said we'd be going through a rising swell today. The whales apparently weren't going to have that happen today. The insane thing is that the supposedly simpler predictor at Historic.php forsaw the crash 6 hours before it happened.

Got me sitting up straight and watching intently now.....

The historic (3 layer once an hour). Uncanny.

samurai1200

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Quote from: davidgdg on June 04, 2014, 12:42:48 AM

I don't much believe in TA, whether it's done by a human or a computer. But I must admit I'm impressed by the prediction made eight hours ago of a fall from 670 to 635 which was almost spot on both in terms of timing and degree.

Were you looking at the chart here:
http://www.btcpredictions.com/Historic.php

or here?
http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

For a few hours after i posted last, I checked in with the NewPredictor every once in a while, which said we'd be going through a rising swell today. The whales apparently weren't going to have that happen today. The insane thing is that the supposedly simpler predictor at Historic.php forsaw the crash 6 hours before it happened.

Got me sitting up straight and watching intently now.....

davidgdg

hero member

Activity: 552

Merit: 501

I don't much believe in TA, whether it's done by a human or a computer. But I must admit I'm impressed by the prediction made eight hours ago of a fall from 670 to 635 which was almost spot on both in terms of timing and degree.

samurai1200

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Merit: 250

Excellent work. I've been reading The Singularity Is Near (Kurzweil) so anything neural network piques my interest

Gingermod

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Quote from: K128kevin2 on June 02, 2014, 10:52:30 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 10:18:54 PM

Also in the little test you ran, how many Bitcoins did you have on Nov 30 2013 and April 10 2014

On Nov 30 2013 it had 86.290957 BTC. It's really hard for me to tell how much it had on April 10 2014 but it looks like probably around 127 ish

Awesome stuff. Let's see how your new beta predictor (on the site) plays out today.

K128kevin2

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Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 10:18:54 PM

Also in the little test you ran, how many Bitcoins did you have on Nov 30 2013 and April 10 2014

On Nov 30 2013 it had 86.290957 BTC. It's really hard for me to tell how much it had on April 10 2014 but it looks like probably around 127 ish

Gingermod

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Quote from: K128kevin2 on June 02, 2014, 09:46:13 PM

Quote from: bitswipe on June 02, 2014, 09:39:49 PM

This looks great...an amazing creation you have done here.
How long did it take to create?

Glad you like it

I've been working on it since around October or November 2013, but a lot of that was also just learning about Neural Networks. When I started, I really didn't have a thorough understanding of them, just a pretty basic understanding. Took a while to learn. Also spent some time learning php/javascript/html so that I could make the website.

Also in the little test you ran, how many Bitcoins did you have on Nov 30 2013 and April 10 2014

Gingermod

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Quote from: K128kevin2 on June 02, 2014, 09:36:36 PM

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 08:46:53 PM

Did you do the recent test with the new beta?

Btw, sent you a donation

Thanks a lot for the donation, I really appreciate it!

Is the test you are asking about the one that I said earned $60k? That was done using a different type of neural network, not the beta of the 24 hour one that is up now. It was done with a neural network I've been working on that predicts the highest and lowest price during the next 24 hour period rather than every price.

Keep working on that, I see real applications for it and I would be interested in supporting a more developed version.

K128kevin2

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Merit: 250

Quote from: bitswipe on June 02, 2014, 09:39:49 PM

This looks great...an amazing creation you have done here.
How long did it take to create?

Glad you like it

I've been working on it since around October or November 2013, but a lot of that was also just learning about Neural Networks. When I started, I really didn't have a thorough understanding of them, just a pretty basic understanding. Took a while to learn. Also spent some time learning php/javascript/html so that I could make the website.

bitswipe

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This looks great...an amazing creation you have done here.
How long did it take to create?

K128kevin2

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Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 08:46:53 PM

Did you do the recent test with the new beta?

Btw, sent you a donation

Thanks a lot for the donation, I really appreciate it!

Is the test you are asking about the one that I said earned $60k? That was done using a different type of neural network, not the beta of the 24 hour one that is up now. It was done with a neural network I've been working on that predicts the highest and lowest price during the next 24 hour period rather than every price.

Gingermod

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Quote from: K128kevin2 on June 02, 2014, 07:36:01 PM

Quote from: seleme on June 02, 2014, 07:31:13 PM

uh, it's very bearish Cry

Yeah to be honest, the 24 hour prediction on the main page is the only one that I would say is actually pretty good. The 5-day one is good sometimes but iffy overall, and the 20 day one is really just experimental.

Quote from: seleme on June 02, 2014, 07:31:13 PM

Will you add longer predictions soon?

I am working on trying to get the new predictor to predict prices over a longer period of time. I am also working on the buy/sell price predictor though. And I'm also still working on the 24 hour new prediction, because it doesn't seem to be changing shape very much and I'm not really sure why yet. Ahhhh so many things to work on!

Did you do the recent test with the new beta?

Btw, sent you a donation

K128kevin2

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Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Quote from: seleme on June 02, 2014, 07:31:13 PM

uh, it's very bearish Cry

Yeah to be honest, the 24 hour prediction on the main page is the only one that I would say is actually pretty good. The 5-day one is good sometimes but iffy overall, and the 20 day one is really just experimental.

Quote from: seleme on June 02, 2014, 07:31:13 PM

Will you add longer predictions soon?

I am working on trying to get the new predictor to predict prices over a longer period of time. I am also working on the buy/sell price predictor though. And I'm also still working on the 24 hour new prediction, because it doesn't seem to be changing shape very much and I'm not really sure why yet. Ahhhh so many things to work on!

seleme

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Duelbits.com

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 07:32:11 PM

Quote from: seleme on June 02, 2014, 07:31:13 PM

uh, it's very bearish Cry

You're looking at the old version.

New version is short term, but very bullish

http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

yeah, just noticed it Grin

Will you add longer predictions soon?

K128kevin2

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Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Quote from: Gingermod on June 02, 2014, 06:54:04 PM

Would be really sweet if you could do some simulations during the 6 month 'depression' we were in. I think that would get many people interested in your ~~little~~ cool project, including me.

I'll work on that, that shouldn't be too hard to do.

Quote from: Raystonn

Did you train this on all available data, or did you leave some for forward testing? You need to watch for curve fitting.

It trains on all of the data. I don't think it's overfitting because it actually has a relatively high average error by the time it's one training (something around 8%) but it's still able to profit. I'll definitely be testing it out so we'll see how it performs. Maybe I'll put it online so people can track its progress.

Gingermod

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Quote from: seleme on June 02, 2014, 07:31:13 PM

uh, it's very bearish Cry

You're looking at the old version.

New version is short term, but very bullish

http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

seleme

legendary

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1028

Duelbits.com

uh, it's very bearish Cry

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