Topic: Beta version of new Bitcoin price prediction model! - page 3. (Read 3877 times)

Did you train this on all available data, or did you leave some for forward testing?  You need to watch for curve fitting.

Your project is definitely improving, glad to see it!

Just confirming yeah it definitely did lose money sometimes... seems to have peaked just under $100k when it sold 86.290957 BTC for $1150.866848 each.

And yeah it did increase bitcoin holdings... it had just over 105 a day or so before the end of the data, but it sold them. At the start it can afford about 17 btc for about $5.9 each.

I didn't expect otherwise, that's natural. The question is, did you manage to increase your BTC holding? Not USD value

I haven't gone through the data terribly extensively, but it looks like it loses a bit of money when btc price is falling, but definitely a lot less than it would if it just held.

Would be cool to see how you fair in a falling market. See how much you can increase your Bitcoin holdings.

*Here are the points at which it decided to buy/sell - in unix timestamps (sorry!)
BUY: 1315983600
SELL: 1316508458
BUY: 1317055057
SELL: 1317055440
BUY: 1318095463
SELL: 1318831142
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SELL: 1319104501
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SELL: 1319631404
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SELL: 1319875994
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SELL: 1320000889
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SELL: 1321310870
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SELL: 1321543438
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Awesome man, that's pretty cool.

For anyone who cares, I just made a VERY exciting breakthrough with this! In simulating trading based on predictions of ideal buy/sell prices, I got the neural network to turn $100 into $63,764.98 over bitcoin prices for the past ~3.5 years! That is more than six times as much money as you would make by buying and holding the whole time! The buy/hold strategy turns $100 into about $10,300.

You can lol all you want, but it's plain and simple, not predicting it reliable to be of any use, but don't get me wrong, I wish/hope you can make it reliable...but as is the case now, people will loose money if they are dumb enough to follow your neural network as of right now.

Best of luck getting it to predict anywhere close to 90%

lol dude the Javascript code gets the time, it doesn't calculate the prediction. if it was 22:47 on your end and the 2nd prediction, which had 23:00 labeled under it, said 635,8, then that means that it predicts the average price of bitcoin between 22:00 and 23:00 will be that price. Basically the rise in price just occurred earlier than predicted. It accurately predicted this rise in price, it just seems to be happening earlier than anticipated.

maybe someone should make a self-learning system if possible.

It's 22:47 at my end and your chart says that at 23:00 the price will be 635.8, so it's obviously waaaaay off, so your javascript code is dropping the ball seriously

I don't know what you're saying but it uses Javascript to set those values, so if they don't correspond with your current timezone then it is a problem on your end. It's calculated client-side.

nope according to my clock we should be 635.8 in about 15 minutes

The 24 hour predictions have done pretty well over the past few months. There have been a few mistakes but overall it has been relatively successful. There is definitely room for improvement though, which is what I've been working on.

Keep in mind, guys, that the 20 day prediction is really just there for fun. It has a very high average error and really is far from reliably accurate. It does well sometimes, but I seriously doubt bitcoin will be falling under 400 any time soon, if ever. The 5-day prediction does quite a bit better but I still wouldn't call it reliable.


I'm working on longer term predictions for the new version (there is a 5-day and 20-day prediction on the main page using the old NN). I'm still working on this new 24 hour prediction too though.

Another thing I'm working on is using a neural network to find the optimal buy/sell values to set when trading. I'm testing strategies by simulating trading starting with $100 at the creation of Bitstamp and seeing how much it profits by the end. I can easily get it to make around $7-$8k from the original $100, but if you buy/hold from the very beginning you get about $10,300. I once managed to get it to earn about $13,750 but I was stupid and didn't save a piece of data that would be needed to replicate that neural network. I am working on some promising strategies now though so we'll see how they perform!


As it says on the home page, the time zone is your current time zone from wherever you are viewing the site.

So, we're supposed to be $651-$653 now, right?  I'm seeing $664 on Bitstamp.

At least let people know what timezone his hours are, it's all a big guess to me right now.

Interesting work. I looked at the 24 hour actual/prediction chart, prediction is not bad. Are there any 1 month or 1 week comparison charts for version 1? Curious to know the accuracy of your neural network.

This is actually a nice idea, im gonna remember some predictions for the future.
And I will compare them to actual data from that day.
I see however in the 20 days prediction, Bitcoin is not doing good at all in those 20 days.
Ill screenshot that and will compare in 20 days!