Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events - page 12. (Read 62146 times)
Just a heads up, I'm getting this error message now whenever I try to visit my profile.
Thought this might be of interest to some watching this thread:
- http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159420411X <-- This title will be released on September 27, 2012.
Quote
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
- http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159420411X <-- This title will be released on September 27, 2012.
A Higgs Boson particle will be observed before the end of 2012: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=272
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/135756-cerns-higgs-boson-discovery-passes-peer-review-becomes-actual-science
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/135756-cerns-higgs-boson-discovery-passes-peer-review-becomes-actual-science
Payments are processed. Thanks.
I'm a big fan of the site. I've placed several bets so far and haven't had any problems. I do wish there was more activity, though. A lot of the bets are just about the BTC/USD exchange rate, which I find kind of silly. I'll probably increase my use in the future.
Glad to hear that!
I got a few in my sig 
A Higgs Boson particle will be observed before the end of 2012: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=272
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/135756-cerns-higgs-boson-discovery-passes-peer-review-becomes-actual-science
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/135756-cerns-higgs-boson-discovery-passes-peer-review-becomes-actual-science
A lot of the bets are just about the BTC/USD exchange rate, which I find kind of silly.
People in speculation sub forum telling what the price will be 2 months from now is much sillier. On a bet you get the best prediction you can get. If you feel like you know it better, then you can maybe even improve the accuracy of the prediction.
Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about. 
There are some topics that I wouldn't normally follow but with a minimum bet of only 0.1 BTC (worth a little over $1) it is easy to put some money on it and then get the e-mail alert on the outcome when the bet ends.
For some bets the odds are just not worth it
This whole predictions market captures my interest in a unique way!
I'm a big fan of the site. I've placed several bets so far and haven't had any problems. I do wish there was more activity, though. A lot of the bets are just about the BTC/USD exchange rate, which I find kind of silly. I'll probably increase my use in the future.
New listing.
Title: Apple, Inc. will announce a new television set before October 31, 2012.
Description: It has been long rumored that Apple, Inc will release their own television set. Some say it will feature full voice-recognition via Siri, among other features.
With the September 12th, 2012 Apple event, and another October 2012 event expected to occur, will the Apple TV set be announced before October 31, 2012?
Articles on the subject:
NY Times
iDownload Blog
PC World
Apple, Inc. will announce a new television set before October 31, 2012
Title: Apple, Inc. will announce a new television set before October 31, 2012.
Description: It has been long rumored that Apple, Inc will release their own television set. Some say it will feature full voice-recognition via Siri, among other features.
With the September 12th, 2012 Apple event, and another October 2012 event expected to occur, will the Apple TV set be announced before October 31, 2012?
Articles on the subject:
NY Times
iDownload Blog
PC World
Quote
This statement is true if Apple, Inc. announces a new television set before October 31, 2012.
Opening date: Sept. 10, 2012
Bet deadline: Oct. 3, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Oct. 31, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Technology
Total agree bets: 0.00
Total disagree bets: 1.00
Total weighted agree bets: 0.000
Total weighted disagree bets: 552.738
Opening date: Sept. 10, 2012
Bet deadline: Oct. 3, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: Oct. 31, 2012 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Technology
Total agree bets: 0.00
Total disagree bets: 1.00
Total weighted agree bets: 0.000
Total weighted disagree bets: 552.738
Apple, Inc. will announce a new television set before October 31, 2012
Please allow the bet maker to link a thread in this or any other forum if you don't intend to allow people speculate about things on the site itself. It's much more fun to bet then.
You can put a link in the description at submission, or ask us to add one afterwards via email. Are you asking for something else?
Also there is a new subreddit for the site created by some users.
Well, maybe "allow" was the wrong term. An extra optional field to encourage people to put a discussion link was what I meant. Also I see many non-link urls. Maybe you want to linkify urls in descriptions?
Please allow the bet maker to link a thread in this or any other forum if you don't intend to allow people speculate about things on the site itself. It's much more fun to bet then.
You can put a link in the description at submission, or ask us to add one afterwards via email. Are you asking for something else?
Also there is a new subreddit for the site created by some users.
Please allow the bet maker to link a thread in this or any other forum if you don't intend to allow people speculate about things on the site itself. It's much more fun to bet then.
(Also please allow to bet arbitrarily small amounts. If not, please measure how many people that got the error "bets have to be a multiple of 0.01" actually opted to bet more rather than less or 0. I doubt that your server would collapse if it had to compute some more bets.)
(Also please allow to bet arbitrarily small amounts. If not, please measure how many people that got the error "bets have to be a multiple of 0.01" actually opted to bet more rather than less or 0. I doubt that your server would collapse if it had to compute some more bets.)
So I still can make money betting against ET, awesome!
This will be a particularly interesting move for someone with that avatar
For some bets the odds are just not worth it (e.g., the extra-terrestrials bet, you'll lose money no matter if your bet wins or loses with the current odds on it),
Hey Stephen, I am surprised that one of our most active users didn't noticed that we only get a cut from the losing side. You NEVER lose if your prediction is right, you always get more than what you put albeit a possibly small amount. This was the first rule we put while structuring the fees.
Doh! Brain fart ... I should have remembered that. So I still can make money betting against ET, awesome!
There was a new bet listing but it is making some assumptions that leaves it unclear.
Statement: Mitt Romney's tax returns will be released before the election day.
Description: Romney's tax returns will be released before election day, November 6th, 2012, regardless of how or why they were released.
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=636
His 2010 returns were released earlier this year:
- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/romney-2010-tax-return.html
His 2011 returns are the subject of interest. Neither the bet statement nor the description makes this clear.
Statement: Mitt Romney's tax returns will be released before the election day.
Description: Romney's tax returns will be released before election day, November 6th, 2012, regardless of how or why they were released.
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=636
His 2010 returns were released earlier this year:
- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/romney-2010-tax-return.html
His 2011 returns are the subject of interest. Neither the bet statement nor the description makes this clear.
Fixed. Thanks!
For some bets the odds are just not worth it (e.g., the extra-terrestrials bet, you'll lose money no matter if your bet wins or loses with the current odds on it),
Hey Stephen, I am surprised that one of our most active users didn't noticed that we only get a cut from the losing side. You NEVER lose if your prediction is right, you always get more than what you put albeit a possibly small amount. This was the first rule we put while structuring the fees.
Thanks for the neat service.
As hinted in my earlier sig, I had placed bets on BS&T default. Got some nice customer service repeating the default definition, had a chat about betting in general, won a little over 2 weeks after payments stopped, and was able to withdraw right away. Some bets that came in late were reverted, which is the right thing to do, since there was additional information at the time.
Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about.
As hinted in my earlier sig, I had placed bets on BS&T default. Got some nice customer service repeating the default definition, had a chat about betting in general, won a little over 2 weeks after payments stopped, and was able to withdraw right away. Some bets that came in late were reverted, which is the right thing to do, since there was additional information at the time.
Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about.
Great to hear from happy users. That makes our day here.
There was a new bet listing but it is making some assumptions that leaves it unclear.
Statement: Mitt Romney's tax returns will be released before the election day.
Description: Romney's tax returns will be released before election day, November 6th, 2012, regardless of how or why they were released.
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=636
His 2010 returns were released earlier this year:
- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/romney-2010-tax-return.html
His 2011 returns are the subject of interest. Neither the bet statement nor the description makes this clear.
Statement: Mitt Romney's tax returns will be released before the election day.
Description: Romney's tax returns will be released before election day, November 6th, 2012, regardless of how or why they were released.
- http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=636
His 2010 returns were released earlier this year:
- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/romney-2010-tax-return.html
His 2011 returns are the subject of interest. Neither the bet statement nor the description makes this clear.
Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about.
There are some topics that I wouldn't normally follow but with a minimum bet of only 0.1 BTC (worth a little over $1) it is easy to put some money on it and then get the e-mail alert on the outcome when the bet ends.
For some bets the odds are just not worth it
This whole predictions market captures my interest in a unique way!
Thanks for the neat service.
As hinted in my earlier sig, I had placed bets on BS&T default. Got some nice customer service repeating the default definition, had a chat about betting in general, won a little over 2 weeks after payments stopped, and was able to withdraw right away. Some bets that came in late were reverted, which is the right thing to do, since there was additional information at the time.
Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about.
As hinted in my earlier sig, I had placed bets on BS&T default. Got some nice customer service repeating the default definition, had a chat about betting in general, won a little over 2 weeks after payments stopped, and was able to withdraw right away. Some bets that came in late were reverted, which is the right thing to do, since there was additional information at the time.
Overall, the site made a good impression to me. I'll use it again as soon as there's something I want to bet about.
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