Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events - page 4. (Read 62161 times)

Forgot username, and have been trying to e-mail admin... please respond so I can access my account

Hmm...

---

---

---

First, I have used BetsOfBitcoin for a couple of years. I REALLY enjoyed bets of bitcoin.  

That said, I would very strongly recommend against trusting them your money.



Here is why:


Coinjedi, the owner and developer of BetsOfBitcoin is (AFAICT) anonymous.

Depositing money to BetsOfBitcoin is exactly equivalent to "sending cash to a stranger on the internet".

This is a bad, problematic, entirely not acceptable state of affairs.




Coinjedi could run away with all the money entrusted to the site, at any time.

There wouldn't be any obvious way for users of the site to even reach him.


For example: If he "forgets" to renew the domain registration, he could just take the deposited money, and...

well... on second thought... he wouldn't even need to do anything,  other than forget to pay the bill.

That would be the end of it.



Those moneys have already been given to him, and the users of the site have no choice but to blindly trust that he will return them, according to his rules.

Now, when dealing in bitcoin... This trust model.... How do I put this...


History teaches that it often seems to work flawlessly for a time, a long time, until it one day catastrophically stops working with little or no warning.

The website in question mysteriously ceases to exist, citing "technical difficulties", followed by promises of "be back soon", followed by... radio silence forever.

And your money would be gone. And you would be sad. And there would be nothing you could do to get them back.


As for warning signs: The owner has not responded to users on BitcoinTalk for a month... The site seems to have fallen into disuse and disrepair as of late. SSL cert expiry, and so on...


So... yeah...

Does that answer your question?

Here it is if anyone is interested http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1772

Can we close and pay out http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1343 please?
Atlantis has closed down.

Freimarkets could be deployed in Bitcoin's blockchain if the required hardfork is accepted by the network.
It will likely happen on Freicoin first, but it is a protocol extension that can operate in both chains at the same time.
And as said, order-based colored coins (freimarkets are "tag-based colored coins" according to Meni Rosenfeld) is what worries me in the current bet.
In fact, I would not want to bet against a mastercoin based on a central issuer neither (I undesrtand that's possible, isn't it?). I just want to bet against your proposed p2p derivative issued by a protocol such as mastercoin.
If bitshares claims to be able to do the same p2p derivative or similar, I would prefer the new bet not to be so specific about the bitcoin chain so that the bitshare people can also disagree with me (the more coins against me, the higher the reward if I win).

Hehehe, I understand.
I have also spent most of my bitcoins on freicoins.
Suddenly my lately preferred way to buy btc was more restricted and I would like to explore other ways...
I have some because [spolier]Skyler behaved as expected[/spolier], but maybe it's not the right time to bet on this.
I still think I will lose the other one because of colored coins/freimarkets though.
Maybe the absence of oilCoins will safe me? Let's see. Didn't bet much because of the time horizon anyway.

This statement will be regarded as true if before January 1st, 2015 it is possible to buy, sell, trade, and spend virtual currencies which track the value of gold, oil, and U.S. Dollars, with the record of these transactions stored in the primary bitcoin block chain

I would, except I spent all my bitcoins on MasterCoins!

I literally have almost zero bitcoins left! If I get more bitcoins, I might set up another bet.

Ok, then it's my bad because I didn't read that part with enough attention.


I think I will lose my bet because of it. If there's reliable issuers that keep their promises I think they will have parity.
For national currencies like usd or eur is very easy and already happening with bitstampUSD on ripple(tm), for example.


Exactly, I know you think it is possible to make p2p derivatives through a deterministic fund with mastercoin/bitcoin reserves and that's what I intuitively think that can be exploited and want to bet against.
Maybe we can create another bet we are both comfortable in the opposite sides.
Would you bet on a similar prediction excluding the centralized issuer with real reserves approach as a mean to achieve the "assetCoins parity"?

I wrote that bet, and it hasn't changed.

Everybody knows that colored coins exist, but I personally doubt they will be able to maintain parity with their underlying asset, due to risk of default by the issuer. That is, I don't think USDCoins will be able to hold a value of $1 each. Consequently, I don't think you'll lose your bet due to colored coins.

The MasterCoin project, on the other hand . . .

It seems to me that the description of this bet changed after I placed my bet: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1210

It now says:
"* http://www.Bitcoinx.org is working on a decentralized exchange for "colored coins", but there is doubt as to whether such coins will maintain their nominal face values when pegged to commodities and currencies. "

I agree that that usdCoins, goldcoins, oilCoins, etc can be issued and backed by a central issuer. And if they back it I expect their price to be similar to their real/paper courterparties.
What I don't believe is you can do this without trusting an issuer, which is what mastercoin attempts to do and what I bet against.

Did I read that part too fast when I bet or has it really changed after I did it?
If it changed, I want to take back my bet, I've been talking about usdCoins with an issuer inside the chain for years, before the term "colored coins" was even coined.