Betting on political events - page 2.

Antotena

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Quote from: alegotardo on July 24, 2024, 07:27:33 PM

We know that any bet on real events (policy, sports, etc.) always has some possibility of being manipulated.

In the same way that sports betting on small tournaments has a greater risk (paying a player to do something immoral), politics is no different.
If we take a smaller country and a less important political position, the chances of that person running as a candidate just to manipulate a result are very high.

I like it when we have several betting niches in different segments to choose from, but I believe that bookmakers need to carefully analyze each scenario to minimize the possibility of manipulation.

Manipulation happen even on sports games but the way they do it doesn't look so obvious but politics is a scary one that many people are emotional about. The last time Biden won the US election, some of his fans when to the whitehouse protesting and where climbing walls that were take down by security operations, this tells you how emotional people can be when it comes to elections and hence the reason many gambling platforms don't list political events.

Some Bookmakers can also be politically motivated to do their dirty tricks on people, imagine having Biden and Trump on their website with 48/52% odds on both candidates and after Biden step down, the odd would definitely be favoring Trump than any otter candidates and if they are Trump guys, who knows they can be paid off to increase the odd so people can place their money on Trump and emotionally, people will go to their polling units to vote Trump so that they will have it in mind of winning their bets, so many tricks in political gambling.

Huppercase

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Quote from: $weetne$$ on July 24, 2024, 01:39:38 PM

America election is the most anticipated election and you can make a lot of money betting on it, after Joe biden step down and handed over the mandate to Kamala Harris the odd for Donald Trump has increased because everybody knows he is going to be the next president. The donations the democrats are raising does not mean they are going to win the presidential election. They are just trying to make it look like they are still on the race when they have already lost. Americans are not ready to election a woman to be president and not a black woman too. America has only one black president and they would not want the next one to be a woman. Harry Clinton could not win against Donald trump when she was the front runner and she had more chances of becoming the president than Harris.

I don't think it's the most anticipated election in the US but the election is now a war between the republicans and the democrats and since they have strong side of battle between them, many people pick interest in it and most importantly one candidate seems to be making Bitcoin as his friends because over the years since Bitcoin has been live, there has never been a candidate that has come straight forward to like Bitcoin like Trump and what may may happen later.

To make the election even spicy, it's now a run up election between a woman and a man which has never happen in the history of US election, a sitting woman as president challenging a man like Trump and she is even confidence in her way of strategies in winning this election. The only thing I'm after is to see what Trump plans for Bitcoin and not abandoned it as soon as he get to office.

Egii Nna

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You have a point because a real gambler doesn’t depend on only sporting activities; they beat in everything. That is why they are called gamblers, so gambling on politics is also gambling as long as money is involved and a winner will be getting. But there is one thing to be considered because many gamblers depend on gambling on sports matters or casino games because that is what they have knowledge of, and they will be able to predict the results due to some consideration of the game, but when we are talking of politics, it is completely different from sports and games because this deals with the interests of a very large number of people, and you will not be able to tell them what they are supposed to do, or who they will vote for these things depends on the interest and acceptance of the person, so to me, I think it will be very difficult compared to that of spot and gaming.

KTChampions

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Quote from: Sunderland on July 24, 2024, 06:24:04 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on July 24, 2024, 03:50:08 PM

The question was what would happen to the bets of those who made them on Biden. The fact that Harris' odds are the same as Biden's is beside the point.

Is anyone surprised that polls supposedly show Harris equal or even slightly ahead of Trump? Are the media brazenly wishful thinking or are they simply preparing the public for some kind of scam?

From what I know, some platforms have void bets on Biden since the odds for Biden were removed from the betting markets.
Also, there has been a change in the odds since the Poll was announced, a few days ago I was still seeing Trump 1.46x and now it's 1.52x - I think the bookmakers still doubt the Poll results.

The quote of 1.52 means that Trump is still a big favorite (I would even say gigantic, given that there are still 4 months before the election and a lot can happen during this time). But to my surprise, the corrupt media are already “showing” that the chances of Trump and Harris are almost equal. I can’t understand this impudence (although in the modern world where men pretending to be women participate in women’s sports, this is not the biggest lie).

Stable090

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Quote from: alegotardo on July 24, 2024, 07:27:33 PM

We know that any bet on real events (policy, sports, etc.) always has some possibility of being manipulated.

I haven’t really heard about that before, but I don’t really think politician results can be manipulated just because people gambled in support of a candidate and the person is losing. Politics has nothing to do with gambling, so it’s a completely different thing, so I don’t think political result can be manipulated easily.

Quote from: alegotardo on July 24, 2024, 07:27:33 PM

In the same way that sports betting on small tournaments has a greater risk (paying a player to do something immoral), politics is no different.

Paying players so that they can perform anyhow might be happening in local sports, but that’s what you will find difficult in international games because anyone caught will be properly punished. So many people are just so scared of doing things like that, but it might be happening locally. We know some regions are corrupt, but seriously, I haven’t heard about it before.

ChiBitCTy

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I really don't know about any other political events other than those here in the United States. What I can say is that what might be a bit of a source of amusement for those outside of the United States, I can certainly say is not very amusing for those of us here in the United States. These last couple presidential elections have been pretty divisive for US citizens and has created quite a bit of turmoil. I am just ready for a "normal" election to take place. That being said I will be betting on this election as it seems, sadly, pretty one sided.

bangjoe

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Quote from: Sunderland on July 24, 2024, 06:24:04 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on July 24, 2024, 03:50:08 PM

The question was what would happen to the bets of those who made them on Biden. The fact that Harris' odds are the same as Biden's is beside the point.

Is anyone surprised that polls supposedly show Harris equal or even slightly ahead of Trump? Are the media brazenly wishful thinking or are they simply preparing the public for some kind of scam?

From what I know, some platforms have void bets on Biden since the odds for Biden were removed from the betting markets.
Also, there has been a change in the odds since the Poll was announced, a few days ago I was still seeing Trump 1.46x and now it's 1.52x - I think the bookmakers still doubt the Poll results.

That is very normal in changing the odds, especially on the ongoing journey to the presidential election, polls will definitely change according to the political dynamics taking place in America, as in a political competition it is quite long and anything can happen on the ground, as well as yesterday Biden resigned and Trump had a shot at him, it made Trump have a considerable increase among voters in America.

Likewise, the bookie must have considered the possibility of the current glasses being changed, Kamala Harris may be experiencing a rise in attention in America which makes the bookie feel a little doubtful about Trump.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: Fiatless on July 24, 2024, 01:35:05 PM

This radical view is mostly associated with religion. That's why there will never be any bet on religious activities in my country. Some radicals in my area lynch people because of mere words that they interpret as blasphemy. And they fail to practice love, sympathy, and empathy. You don't have the power to create humans then why do you harm or destroy what you cannot make? There has been some political violence in my country but people don't show much respect for political ideologies. Politics in my country is controlled by money and not ideologies. Anyway concerning the US elections, the result has become unpredictable since Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.

The situation in the USA is really very complicated, first with the attack against Trump, I consider that under no circumstances should one think of killing someone just for Belonging to a political group and much less for thinking differently, this lack of tolerance is what in the world makes the worst thing that any human being can do exist, in the end it does not lead to anything good, there will always be things that will go badly for those people in life, that is why I am very apolitical in politics, so far it is the most intelligent thing I have done, this is how friendships are Expanded and with different ways of thinking, I consider that the same thing happens in religions.

Dave1

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Quote from: alegotardo on July 24, 2024, 07:27:33 PM

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 22, 2024, 01:52:28 AM

Here I propose to discuss all political events in all countries on which bets are placed, and not just political events in the United States.

We know that any bet on real events (policy, sports, etc.) always has some possibility of being manipulated.

In the same way that sports betting on small tournaments has a greater risk (paying a player to do something immoral), politics is no different.
If we take a smaller country and a less important political position, the chances of that person running as a candidate just to manipulate a result are very high.

I like it when we have several betting niches in different segments to choose from, but I believe that bookmakers need to carefully analyze each scenario to minimize the possibility of manipulation.

What do you mean manipulation? from sports bookies or the actual results of the elections? Most likely the latter though as we all know that there could be current elections in a country wherein there is a rampant in vote buying . And that's where the corruption starts because once they are seated already, they want to recoup all the money that they've used.

In any case, I doubt though that the result in the US elections can be manipulated. Currently, Trump is leading Kamala Harris but plenty of time from the VP to catch up with Trump leading a slim 2-3 points as of the latest poll.

alegotardo

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☢️ alegotardo™️

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on June 22, 2024, 01:52:28 AM

Here I propose to discuss all political events in all countries on which bets are placed, and not just political events in the United States.

We know that any bet on real events (policy, sports, etc.) always has some possibility of being manipulated.

In the same way that sports betting on small tournaments has a greater risk (paying a player to do something immoral), politics is no different.
If we take a smaller country and a less important political position, the chances of that person running as a candidate just to manipulate a result are very high.

I like it when we have several betting niches in different segments to choose from, but I believe that bookmakers need to carefully analyze each scenario to minimize the possibility of manipulation.

o48o

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Quote from: passwordnow on July 24, 2024, 03:59:27 PM

They have lost yet until the race is over. I'm saying that because it's not yet over but the obvious is that you're right that it's almost over and Trump is about to win the election.
-cut-
I think whether the candidate is black, white, man or woman or whatever, it is about the platform that they're mentioning through the rallies that are gaining the votes. And that's the reason why Trump is likely getting all the votes and with the assasination attempt, he has garnered more trust from the people.

I don't get why getting shot at would make people trust you more. And so far i haven't seen any polls that it would have affected to, people just seem to think it has.

Meanwhile Kamala Harris raised $81 million in the 24 hours right after biden announced withdrawing his candidacy. Majority of her donors are first-time donors, so there's that too. Not to mention that trump is that old confused man now in this race, so playing that card where they laughed biden being old could backfire now. So could their "tough on crime", when Kamala has actually done something about it, and been tough on crime. She has also experience dealing with criminals, so dealing with Trump isn't anything new to her.

Sunderland

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 24, 2024, 03:50:08 PM

The question was what would happen to the bets of those who made them on Biden. The fact that Harris' odds are the same as Biden's is beside the point.

Is anyone surprised that polls supposedly show Harris equal or even slightly ahead of Trump? Are the media brazenly wishful thinking or are they simply preparing the public for some kind of scam?

From what I know, some platforms have void bets on Biden since the odds for Biden were removed from the betting markets.
Also, there has been a change in the odds since the Poll was announced, a few days ago I was still seeing Trump 1.46x and now it's 1.52x - I think the bookmakers still doubt the Poll results.

passwordnow

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Quote from: $weetne$$ on July 24, 2024, 01:39:38 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on July 22, 2024, 08:19:13 AM

That's true, USA politics is intense and it's even easier today that Joe Biden has already passed his torch to Kamala Harris. Stake's odd for Trump is a clear indication that we know who's about to win and this isn't just for the odds but for the entire world to see. With the Trump's attempt to be assasinated, whoever ployed that just gave him the edge to be liked more by the people. Not just by the Americans but the other countries as well that are following their election period. Less than four months to go until the election come and while others are suggesting that it's still possible for Michelle Obama to get in, IMO, the chance is there but she's not going to have a better chance of winning compared to Kamala and even Biden.

America election is the most anticipated election and you can make a lot of money betting on it, after Joe biden step down and handed over the mandate to Kamala Harris the odd for Donald Trump has increased because everybody knows he is going to be the next president. The donations the democrats are raising does not mean they are going to win the presidential election. They are just trying to make it look like they are still on the race when they have already lost.

They have lost yet until the race is over. I'm saying that because it's not yet over but the obvious is that you're right that it's almost over and Trump is about to win the election.

Quote from: $weetne$$ on July 24, 2024, 01:39:38 PM

Americans are not ready to election a woman to be president and not a black woman too. America has only one black president and they would not want the next one to be a woman. Harry Clinton could not win against Donald trump when she was the front runner and she had more chances of becoming the president than Harris.

I think whether the candidate is black, white, man or woman or whatever, it is about the platform that they're mentioning through the rallies that are gaining the votes. And that's the reason why Trump is likely getting all the votes and with the assasination attempt, he has garnered more trust from the people.

KTChampions

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Quote from: ajiz138 on July 22, 2024, 10:06:50 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on July 22, 2024, 09:55:00 AM

The option that the bet on Biden will be changed to a bet on Harris simply does not exist - this is contrary to all the rules and common sense.

The betting option on Biden is gone but Kamala Harris' name is visible with odds of 3.00 and Trump still has 1.44.

This means that with Biden's withdrawal appointing Kamala Harris with his statement of support, the bookmakers have changed the list of names but in terms of odds there seems to be no change that I know of.

The question was what would happen to the bets of those who made them on Biden. The fact that Harris' odds are the same as Biden's is beside the point.

Is anyone surprised that polls supposedly show Harris equal or even slightly ahead of Trump? Are the media brazenly wishful thinking or are they simply preparing the public for some kind of scam?

$weetne$$

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Quote from: passwordnow on July 22, 2024, 08:19:13 AM

That's true, USA politics is intense and it's even easier today that Joe Biden has already passed his torch to Kamala Harris. Stake's odd for Trump is a clear indication that we know who's about to win and this isn't just for the odds but for the entire world to see. With the Trump's attempt to be assasinated, whoever ployed that just gave him the edge to be liked more by the people. Not just by the Americans but the other countries as well that are following their election period. Less than four months to go until the election come and while others are suggesting that it's still possible for Michelle Obama to get in, IMO, the chance is there but she's not going to have a better chance of winning compared to Kamala and even Biden.

America election is the most anticipated election and you can make a lot of money betting on it, after Joe biden step down and handed over the mandate to Kamala Harris the odd for Donald Trump has increased because everybody knows he is going to be the next president. The donations the democrats are raising does not mean they are going to win the presidential election. They are just trying to make it look like they are still on the race when they have already lost. Americans are not ready to election a woman to be president and not a black woman too. America has only one black president and they would not want the next one to be a woman. Harry Clinton could not win against Donald trump when she was the front runner and she had more chances of becoming the president than Harris.

Fiatless

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Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on July 24, 2024, 12:44:37 PM

Yes, that is a fact, when things are about politics and religious thoughts I think we all have to hit the brakes when it comes to debating, because sometimes people are so radical in their ideals that they forget the most valuable thing, friendship, respect, for that reason I in no way like to get into political discussions, that is why when it comes to Politics I have Different opinions about the USA, and the current elections that are very Interesting because of the events , because my country is purely political and that politics is already Annoying and Tiring.

This radical view is mostly associated with religion. That's why there will never be any bet on religious activities in my country. Some radicals in my area lynch people because of mere words that they interpret as blasphemy. And they fail to practice love, sympathy, and empathy. You don't have the power to create humans then why do you harm or destroy what you cannot make? There has been some political violence in my country but people don't show much respect for political ideologies. Politics in my country is controlled by money and not ideologies. Anyway concerning the US elections, the result has become unpredictable since Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: Silberman on July 20, 2024, 05:24:56 PM

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on July 19, 2024, 09:48:46 AM

Well, something must be highlighted, for two seasons of US presidencies in stake.com they have made bets of this style, I remember that when Trump won the first time there was uncertainty and yet in stake.com they did not hesitate to pay those who bet on him, now, the fact of discussing about the different political points without falling into "problems" or "fanaticisms" is good to discuss them, because from my own experience, I know of many people who even leave their friendship for politics and that is something that seems very primitive to me, if it is to Give the points of view in an educated and respectful way, I think the debate is very good.

I am seeing people leaving friendships behind over politics more often and this is really worrying, after all it is dumb not only to expect that everyone thinks the same about a particular topic, but to not be able to tolerate that someone has those thoughts and this reaches the point of breaking a friendship is ridiculous, which tells me they were not so good friends to begin with or that those people have been radicalized by politicians or both.

Yes, that is a fact, when things are about politics and religious thoughts I think we all have to hit the brakes when it comes to debating, because sometimes people are so radical in their ideals that they forget the most valuable thing, friendship, respect, for that reason I in no way like to get into political discussions, that is why when it comes to Politics I have Different opinions about the USA, and the current elections that are very Interesting because of the events , because my country is purely political and that politics is already Annoying and Tiring.

pawanjain

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 22, 2024, 12:55:20 AM

Quote from: pawanjain on July 18, 2024, 11:48:12 AM

I guess I have seen this somewhere. May be it was on freebitco.in but I never placed a bet on such an event.
Although I think this is a good idea ofcourse, I'll surely try my luck the next time I see such an event.

The unpredictability of political events is something you can't joke with and placing a bet in favour of a political party to win even at the state or federal government level in my country would almost appear as dashing my money out cause it's very deficult to predict who will win since they can easily rigg the election at the zero zero hour. This recent steping down of Biden in an unexpected manner is one that goes on to show that voting on a political event is not for the weak. One would have seen from the way things are going that Trump stood a better chance of winning at the election but would never predicted these kind of events that played out so fast and before you even know it Biden is out of the way. In my country, even after an election has been conducted and a winner has emerged, it takes months of court cases and sometimes might even take up to a year before the whole court cases will be done with and a final winner will be announced. You could win at the pole and the court decision end up going against you which makes it too deficult to predict such kind of event.

That is surely a conflict. In most countries the winner of the election results is the one who gets the seat.
Betting sites must be following the same approach as well otherwise who would be following such long court cases just for the bets.

ajiz138

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 22, 2024, 09:55:00 AM

The option that the bet on Biden will be changed to a bet on Harris simply does not exist - this is contrary to all the rules and common sense.

The betting option on Biden is gone but Kamala Harris' name is visible with odds of 3.00 and Trump still has 1.44.

This means that with Biden's withdrawal appointing Kamala Harris with his statement of support, the bookmakers have changed the list of names but in terms of odds there seems to be no change that I know of.

KTChampions

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Quote from: Fivestar4everMVP on July 22, 2024, 08:28:33 AM

~
And concerning other matters that followed, like Biden announcing that he is dropping from the presidencial race, i understand that he's been replaced by kamala, and as for those who had previously put their bet in Biden to win, I want to believe that their bet will be shifted to kamala Harris now, am I right?
Sorry if this is something that has been discussed before, I possibly missed it.

I think this can be interpreted in two different ways:

1. The event (Biden’s participation in the election) did not take place, therefore all bets are canceled (money is returned to the bettors).

2. Biden didn't win the election = lost. The one who bet on him lost his bet.

The option that the bet on Biden will be changed to a bet on Harris simply does not exist - this is contrary to all the rules and common sense.

Topic: Betting on political events - page 2. (Read 1422 times)