Topic: Betting on political events - page 7. (Read 1414 times)

Can you attached the mega thread you are referring dedicated for Politics betting in the past?

I’m actually intrigued on how this topic will turn out here since this discussion will be more suitable for Politics board since the main topic will be focus on politics while there’s an existing thread for it.

This topic will surely moved to Politics if the discussion focus more on politics unlike sports discussion which doesn’t have dedicated thread on the forum.

Sometimes I like to observe world politics, especially political affairs in my country. I only do this to find out developments, whatever they are, whether international or local politics. however, it never occurred to me to involve betting with political affairs. whether it's the presidential election, even if I'm not mistaken we have a discussion thread related to the American president. perhaps, there are many gamblers who are interested in involving betting on political matters, especially the presidential election.

But personally, I don't like involving political matters with betting. but I'm quite interested, what are the motives for someone involved in betting with political nuances, is this more exciting than sports betting and that's why I'm trying to get involved in this discussion. moreover, you said in this thread that it is related to political events and betting inside. By the way, I honestly don't know what kind of mode to engage in this kind of betting. please understand, I've never tried to probe before.

Actually, I had not thought about it, but you are right, even when the elections results of a country are not so obvious for the people living in such nation, before giving the official announcement of the winning candidate, there is a handful of people who already know the result, before even bookies and casinos can circulate the information and distribute the money to bettors who guessed right.
Makes me wonder how many electoral organizations and authorities around the world have already used their position of power to bet with their privileged information.
Perhaps books and casinos could try to block betting on political markets one or two days before the election. No nobody could abuse that privileged information.

That kind of thinking happens because in some countries like mine before the election is held some who might be elected have already been projected backstage, especially in the third states a lot of manipulation is made so that political bets will not benefit the bookie as a provider for example, and we can see who supports the candidate and their coalition is enough to say that we already know the answer who will win and I don't like that either.

But the fight in the US I think is different, the tension and competition is different, we know that both have great power Trump and Biden, and a lot of issues are made to bring down each other, also with a large election fund makes this interesting, I think that the interesting thing for political betting is the US compared to others.

Why do you seem to worry too much about political and sports talk because anyway, when you involve gambling or betting then of course the thread is here in gambling. After all, in the past there have also been many who made threads about political betting during the election season especially in the United States, so there is nothing wrong if you make a thread about political betting predictions here. Moreover, there are gambling platforms that in fact also have features or betting options about politics, so making this thread here in gambling is something appropriate.

Yeah, it is a good idea, but on a second thought, I think if this thread is used as a singular thread for every political gambling activity, not everyone might be able to keep up with every activity that is being brought by another user because the thread will grow long and not everyone can read from the first page to a 10-page thread. For example, if this thread grows to 20 pages and there have been different gambling political news in different countries that have been discussed there, some people will miss the update because they can't go back to start reading from pages 1–10, respectively. In my opinion, members can create their own thread separately for every political and non-sport gambling activity. If such threads are numerous here (like 1k–2k) and they are already helpful, it can be reported for a subboard to be created.

This is why it is too bad that Augur didn't take off. Augur doesn't talk about betting per se, but about prediction (markets).

Here you can find a very long, but super interesting read by Vitalik Buterin.

The difference is that Augur was supposed to be a prediction aggregator with real world value. Because odds represented what actual people have voted on so far, not what any bookmaker set as the starting point. This is extremely interesting because Augur could have become a place where you could actually see tendencies for certain outcomes. The big thing about it was that manipulation was only possible with skin in the game.

Let's assume someone wants to manipulate the market such that it looks like Trump would win and let's also assume that millions of people are using Augur, it would cost a fortune to let the odds look like Trump would win because someone could only manipulate by logging in real value. Then someone else could come and exploit this by going all in on Biden. The manipulator would lose everything.

Desinformation barely costs a thing as it can be proliferated via social media for literally zero cost across all platforms, reaching millions. There is no skin in the game as it can be done anonymously on top of all other things.

Augur wanted a place where skin in the game makes sure that someone gives exactly the answer that someone thinks is right. Otherwise real value is lost.

---

@Julien_Olynpic I like how you pointed this out:


That's why the term "predicting" instead of "betting" might be less connoted with gambling, and gambling in turn is mostly associated with sports betting and casino games. Augur was supposed to allow for any market to be set up by anyone. Just anything as you said. Political, sports, economic, esoteric, astronomy (when does the next asteroid hit planet Earth), anything...

These days bookmakers are close to offering all kinds of bets as well. But a platform that in a decentralized fashion allows anyone to set up any prediction market with any conditions where either someone else agrees to bet against or let the proposal die because the conditions are bad, would be amazing.

One problem with the decentralized prediction markets was the definition of the oracle. That could become quite complicated, for instance when you predict the weather in two weeks on a Sunday, which source will be consulted to determine the result (still an easy one, but there are more complicated cases).

It would actually be nice to see big bookmakers publish the volumes that have been placed on Biden/Trump in the case of the U.S. election.


What exactly did you mean by this? I think I know, but maybe you can elaborate. Great topic!

Gambling and politics are somewhat alike. The issue is that many of us think politics is compulsorily about countries, the presidents, kings, queens, mayors… but that’s completely a lie. Politics exists in nearly every aspect of our daily lives. It is present in our workplace, in our social circle, and even in our families. Whether people are making decisions there’s always a form of politics at play, maneuvering and negotiating for positions, advantages, and outcomes.

In one simple sentence; there’s politics in sports and other sector where you gamble.

It would not be nice to combine all the gambling topics that has nothing to do with sport events to be discussed on this thread, it will make the thread not look organized and congested with different topic and it will make it difficult to follow the discussion then the thread could appear spamming to people and they would stay away from the thread because they would not want to be discussing with spammers. If there is a new event that needs discussion, a new thread should always be opened to allow us to discuss this events on their own thread. I would not be comfortable discussing the US presidential election and Beyonce tour in the same thread because there could be a bet to guess the city she is going to host her tours and also then the date the US election is going to be held.

The OP almost own my support but you were able to convince me after which putting lot of factors in considerations.
The United States electoral events are prominent and generally recognized with the influential possessions of other geopolitical and geographical regions while some other countries political events can be said to be weak with poor interest of foreigners towards the events due to the local factor terms effect which would only reign within its specificied geographical zone or neighborhood.

Even, let us imagine some undeveloped countries which other foreigners may not have heard of in the past, definitely their political events or activities may not have interested contents enough to attract such world wide influence as the United States electoral events would be.

So considering all that for gambling international discussion, it would not be comfortable because international bookies might not be able to carry on the political event updates due to lack of interests of the local regions except for local bookies and it would still be uneasy for such a local region electoral events to be discussed in this international forum .

The thing that I dont like about betting on political events, that it rare case if something unexpceted could happen. When we see two opponents during president election, it is a high chance that everyone already know or understand who is going to win. This is especially obvious for those who live in that country. As well as there is a high chance of inside information to be, before official announcements are made.

What you said is not wrong, but where do you get the idea that almost the entire population over the age of 21 will talk about politics constantly? Is there any data that makes you dare to conclude like that?

It's about how big the chances are of making a profit if you include political betting in the casino.
If a casino includes politics in the US presidential election, it's possible that the casino realizes that many people will bet, but for presidential elections outside the US, they probably realize that there aren't many and so don't think about including it.

I don't understand how betting in politics is of course with western elections being quite strong then in political betting will be very fierce but I don't follow much about this and often with some mass media where they only focus on US political betting.
Even the bookies won't include this as a bet if the election is only in a small country then there is no interest.
Political betting has been around for a while but I'm not really interested in it at all.

I do not not think there is any betting site that is offering what the OP is discussing. Stake has the one for well known one like the United States presidential election but not having for most other countries. I was able to see Nigeria presidential election bet on only local betting sites and not on foreign gambling sites.

The last time I bet on presidential election was many years back. It was very noticeable when I visited the betting site. Such betting at provided by bookies but in a way people that are visiting the bookie frequently can easily know. Although, this can differ from one gambling site to another but I do not think being under sport can not make it visible. What gambling sites differentiate are casinos and sports. I have not seen the category of election before probably because just such bet comes once in 4 years and not all the time like casinos and sports.

In political betting it is only popular countries like the US, Russia, UK and Canada, that most gamblers from other countries can perticipate in. People don't put so much interest in political affairs and elections of unpopular and small countries, you can liken this to unpopular leagues around the world, it's only the gamblers in those country that'll knows anything about their league. It's ok to have a discussion thread and gambling for political bets but I believe that the focus will majorly be on the popular countries.

So I checked my favorite sports bookie and I also found out that political betting is under sports. Hmmm. I think this should be put somewhere else if they want it to be seen in plain view.
I am not a fan of betting in politics and not with awards either. (i.e. Grammys, Oscar, etc...)
Most of the time bookies only show the politics betting in known countries and I don't see our country being included in it even though the voting will be near.
The last time I voted for a local position there was no opponent for the previous officials. Do imagine if that is included in the betting sites. I bet many people could make money out of it.

I do not see anything wrong in mentioning some of the gambling platforms offering such a service for easier exploration, but still, you did well by giving the clue. Stake offers such a service in case anyone wants to gamble and it comes with reasonable odds. Also, you are on point and no moderator will state otherwise as you posted in the right section of the forum. Although this is a political matter, but it doesn't change the fact that it is part of gambling, so this is different from mere political discussion.

However, I think only a well-established gambling company can be able to offer this service because it is also risky on its own. The reason is that in many cases, the options could only have two viable possible winners, so the money will be split between the two of them. And of course, one must win and if the side that won has higher bettors, it becomes a regular issue for the house regardless of how little the odd that gained is for the bettors.

Betting on political events or non-sports events can be done if casino gives that betting on their site. Betting on political events has been used by people on certain country when the Election time. They place their bet in the local bookies or between them on their candidate because they believe that candidate will wins on the Election.

But if that is about betting on the international events, I think only some people who follows the news that will place the bet. They knows about that betting so they decides to place their bet and wins the betting event. But other people who doesn't know nothing about political events or other events will not place their bet.

It needs more knowledge to know all matters that happens on the political in many countries. Not many people have this knowledge and besides that, maybe not many sites will gives this bet on their site. But I remember one betting site Futuur.com offers many betting type events you can choose and if I am not wrong, Freebitco.in also gives that betting.

There are markets for non-sports betting. There are betting odds on the Oscars results, for example, or on beauty pageants and, yeah, even in politics. But betting became more widespread on sports probably because it's the thing that happens all the time. Elections don't happen everyday. So are other events like the Academy Awards or Miss Universe. Betting wouldn't thrive if they're focusing on these events. As far as sports is concerned, there are so many of them, different leagues, and games are happening seven days a week all year round.

Other than the US and a few more others, politics is normally a local topic. So I don't think it's a great market for gambling.

Political events are way too country specific lol, a single thread isn't going to work. There's probably going to be multiple discussions if it actually happens of events from at least maybe 2,3 countries all at the same time which will make the discussion 100% confusing.

Just let them make their own thread. I don't think it's a bother plus there's not that many in the first place that actually start said discussion. The most recent one I've seen wasn't even about political gambling itself, just that some government employees (or at least close enough to politicians) were arrested due to gambling into said related political events betting lol.